The Scouting Report: Braves @ Giants, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:05 PM ET

• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 68° and sunny. Wind W at 10 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
DH Drake Baldwin
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Joey Bart’s back in the lineup, with Baldwin resuming his usual designated hitter duties with a lefty on the mound for the Giants.

San Francisco Giants Lineup

3B Matt Chapman
2B Luis Arraez
LF Casey Schmitt
1B Rafael Devers
SS Willy Adames
DH Heliot Ramos
CF Jung Hoo Lee
RF Victor Bericoto
C Eric Hasse

Quick thoughts:

• Outfielder Heliot Ramos has been activated off the injured list, getting a start at designated hitter and batting 6th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (8-5, 2.14 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.14 ERA / 3.46 xERA / 2.71 FIP

• 28.9% K / 6.1% BB / 22.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 30% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 40% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

Who to watch:

• No Giants hitters have had any notable success against Sale:

  • Willy Adames: .071 avg/.357 OPS in 14 ABs, albeit with one homer

  • Luis Arraez: .154 avg/.385 OPS in 13 ABs

  • Matt Chapman: .200 avg/.850 OPS in 15 ABs with one homer and two RBI

  • Rafael Devers: 0-5

Opposing Starter: LHP Robbie Ray (6-6, 3.70 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.70 ERA / 4.74 xERA / 4.80 FIP

• 21.9 K% / 11.5 BB% / 10.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (41%, 93.3 mph)

• Slider (27%, 85.9 mph)

• Changeup (16%, 86.0 mph)

• Curveball (9%, 79.5 mph)

• Sinker (7%, 92.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A relatively static two-pitch, slider-oriented mix that cuts back on sliders and curves for four-seamers when behind.

vs RHH: A relatively static three-pitch mix that leads with four-seam/change, ramping up that offspeed when ahead in the count.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta severely struggled when their RHP-oriented lineup faced Ray in the resumption of a rain-postponed game two weeks ago. Notable performers to watch here, however, include Michael Harris II (2-3, HR), Ozzie Albies (4-12, HR, 3 RBI) and Mauricio Dubón (2-6, RBI).

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Most arms in Atlanta’s pen are working on either one day or three days of rest.

Used recently:

• Both Dylan Dodd and the leverage trio of Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Raisel Iglesias all pitched in game one of this series, but their low pitch counts combined with a day off means there are no availability concerns there.

Potential limitations

• Starting pitcher options Hurston Waldrep and Grant Holmes have taken bulk roles in the first two games and are down until next week versus St. Louis, where they’re candidates to get into the rotation.

Quick takeaway:

• It’s all hands on deck for the finale.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Several of the San Francisco leverage arms, including lefty setup man Erik Miller and closer Caleb Killian, have had two days of rest and are fresh for the finale.

Used recently

• Setup man Ryan Walker pitched last night and is probably a question for the finale, given his 23-pitch outing, but I’m assuming Tony Vitello would use him if it mattered.

Potential limitations

• Sam Hentges has worked a back-to-back and three of the last four games, likely resulting in him being down for the finale.

Quick takeaway:

• The Giants should also have all the pieces needed to secure a series win if it’s close late.

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What to Watch Today

• The Braves have scored three runs in the series so far - can the offense figure out lefty Robbie Ray and prevent a 1-5 road trip?

• How does Robbie Ray fare when it’s a lineup that’s optimized to face him versus one with a platoon disadvantage?

Final Thought

The Braves are a road favorite in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a low-scoring (O/U 7.5 runs) game. The Braves have failed to give Chris Sale adequate run support in the last few turns - will that trend continue in what’s been a terrible month for the Atlanta offense?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.