The Scouting Report: Braves @ Padres, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 8:40 PM ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 70° and mostly sunny. Wind WNW at 9 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
RF Eli White
C Joey Bart
DH Jorge Mateo
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Drake Baldwin is a healthy scratch in this one, getting his first day off since returning from the injured list.
San Diego Padres Lineup
2B Fernando Tatis Jr.
LF Samad Taylor
3B Manny Machado
SS Xander Bogaerts
CF Jackson Merrill
DH Miguel Andujar
1B Ty France
C Freddy Fermin
RF Jase Bowen
Quick thoughts:
Three lineups, three different second basemen. This time it’s Fernando Tatis Jr. moving down onto the dirt, a wrinkle they’ve been doing this season.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (6-3, 2.78)
Quick snapshot:
2.78 ERA / 3.90 xERA / 3.71 FIP
20.7% K / 8.5% BB / 12.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 53% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% cutter, 7% curveball, 1% four-seamer
vs RHH: 35% changeup, 27% cutter, 20% sinker, 10% curveball, 9% four-seamer
Who to watch:
Five San Diego hitters have faced Pérez, with radically different results:
Good = Manny Machado: .350 avg/1.030 OPS in 20 ABs w/ 1 HR
Bad: Fernando Tatis Jr.is 0-3, Xander Bogaerts is 3-20, Ty France is 2-17, and Miguel Andujar is 1-7.
Opposing Starter: LHP JP Sears (2026 debut)
Quick snapshot (in AAA):
7.92 ERA / 5.70 xERA / 5.50 FIP
20.4 K% / 9.2 BB% / 11.2% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (49%, 93.4 mph)
Slider (17.7%, 81 mph)
Changeup (12%, 84.3 mph)
Sweeper (9%, 80.7 mph)
Cutter (8%, 89.7 mph)
Sinker (4%, 91.6 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A predictable four-seam dominant mix that ramps them up when behind (at the expense of sliders and sweepers) and cuts them when ahead, in favor of sweepers.
vs RHH: A predictable four-seam dominant mix that ramps them up when behind (at the expense of changeups) and cuts them when ahead, in favor of changeups.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Several Braves have seen Sears in one or two games, with varying levels of success - Ha-Seong Kim is 1-2, while Mike Yastrzemski is 1-6. Here’s the notables:
Ozzie Albies: 0-7
Mauricio Dubón: 5-17, HR, 2 RBI
Jorge Mateo: 1-12
Matt Olson and Michael Harris: both 2-7
Austin Riley: 2-9
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Didier Fuentes, who was given last night off after two appearances in three days, figures to be an option tonight. Tyler Kinley was activated today and will probably need to pitch tonight
Used recently:
James Karinchak was prepared to enter last night’s game if needed after throwing 22 pitches on Monday, so he’s probably available tonight.
Potential limitations
Reynaldo López is lined up to start on Friday, so he’s unavailable, while Dylan Dodd’s 39 pitches on Monday likely mean he’s still unavailable tonight.
The big question, obviously, is if Robert Suarez’s catch session went well today and he can pitch tonight, or if he’s bound for the injured list after the game.
Quick takeaway:
Uh, a save situation might require someone to step up - Fuentes has gotten a save this season - unless Walt Weiss is comfortable reusing Dylan Lee or Raisel Iglesias for a second straight day.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Um, neither Jason Adam nor Ron Marinaccio has yet pitched in this series.
Used recently
Everyone else, including the entire pen, yesterday. David Morgan and Wandy Peralta are likely to return, although Peralta’s usage has been heavy.
Potential limitations
If Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon get put into today’s game, the MLBPA might file a grievance for unsafe working conditions to the league.
Quick takeaway:
I’m really curious who would get leverage innings for the Padres, and I'm very hopeful that we don’t find out.
What to Watch Today
Sears has been much better against lefties than righties, so let’s see if Dubón and Riley can get to the southpaw.
It feels like both bullpens are no longer holding an advantage for either team, although Atlanta’s is mostly down to the health of Suarez.
Final Thought
The Braves are actually favored for once in the finale (FanDuel) in what projects to be a moderate-scoring (O/U 8.5 runs) game. Which starter can give more length and save their overworked bullpens?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.