The Scouting Report: Braves versus Marlins, Game 3
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 8 mph
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
Quick thoughts:
Slight reshuffling of the deck chairs here - Albies leaps over Yastrzemski to take the #5 spot, while Dubón and Harris flip-flop the final two spots in the order.
This is a new batting order, the 11th different one of the season.
Miami Marlins
CF Jakob Marsee (L)
2B Xavier Edwards (S)
SS Otto Lopez (R)
C Liam Hicks (L)
DH Connor Norby (R)
RF Owen Caissie (L)
LF Heriberto Hernández (R)
3B Graham Pauley (L)
1B Deyvison De Los Santos (R)
Quick thoughts:
Catcher Agustín Ramírez gets the night off, with Liam Hicks behind the plate and Deyvison De Los Santos getting the start at first base.
This lineup has combined for 27 at-bats off of Bryce Elder, with one homer (Hernández) and six RBI combined.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Bryce Elder (1-1, 1.02)
Quick snapshot:
1.02 ERA / 2.35 xERA / 2.93 FIP
23.5 K% / 7.4 BB% / 1.5% HR rate
Pitch mix
vs RHH: 48% sinker, 41% slider, 7% four-seamer, 4% changeup
vs LHH: 36% slider, 19% four-seamer, 18% cutter, 17% changeup, 10% sinker
What’s changed in 2026:
The cutter is new, but it’s still only being utilized against lefties.
What to watch:
As always, for Elder, his whole thing is location-dependent. If he’s keeping the slider down and getting ground balls from it and his sinker, it’ll be a good day. If he’s either letting his locations drift up into the heart of the zone or he’s missing the strike zone completely and walking guys, the pen has to be ready.
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddack (0-2, 6.14)
Quick snapshot:
3.68 ERA / 4.30 xERA / 5.13 FIP
20.6 K% / 7.4 BB% / 4.4% HR rate
The arsenal:
Four-seam fastball (92.8 mph, 28% usage)
Changeup (85.1 mph, 24% usage)
Cutter (86.3 mph, 15% usage)
Sweeper (79.9 mph, 13% usage)
Curveball (77.1 mph, 12% usage)
Sinker (92.8 mph, 8%)
How he attacks hitters:
vs LHH: mostly full mix, changeups for chase when ahead
34% four-seamer, 29% changeup, 16% curveball, 13% cutter, 5% sinker, 4% sweeper
vs RHH: here’s the kitchen sink, good luck
25% sweeper, 20% four-seamer, 18% changeup, 17% cutter, 13% sinker, 6% curveball
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Similar to last night, it’s another well-sequenced pitcher (thanks to calling pitches from the dugout) with underwhelming stuff. Nothing of Paddack’s reaches even average marks on the FanGraphs Stuff+ model, but they all tunnel well, he has pretty good locations and can sequence well enough to elicit above-average chase.
Lefties feel like they have it easier, as they can mostly focus on three pitches (4S, CB, CH) versus righties, who could get any one of five pitches with some curveballs sprinkled in for good measure.
Watch Mike Yastrzemski tonight. He’s started to heat up at the plate (hits in three straight games) and is an absurd .391 with three homers and four RBI off of Paddack in just 23 career ABs.
Dom Smith is just 1-9 off of Paddack, but that one hit was a home run.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Osvaldo Bido should be back and available as the long-man after three days off.
Used recently:
The trio of leverage arms all pitched last night and should all be able to come back tonight if needed, although staying away from Robert Suarez wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if possible.
Potential limitations:
José Suarez likely needs one more day, given his 34-pitch workload on Monday
Quick takeaway:
With an off day on Thursday, Walt Weiss has all the levers that might need pulling to secure a series win.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Tyler Phillips should be available, as he’s had the same rest as the last time he threw 37 pitches.
Used recently:
Closer Pete Fairbanks got himself into a pickle in last night’s 8th inning and needed 26 pitches to get out of it. I’m sure they’ll call on him if needed to try and secure a series win, but I’d have him down today. Closers have different rules, though.
Potential limitations:
Lake Bachar likely needs one more day before he’ll be called on for long relief, but that’s okay since Phillips is available.
Quick takeaway:
Miami would likely love a strong start from Chris Paddack, but they can survive a five-and-dive if needed. Any earlier than that, though, and they won’t have very many leverage options if it’s close.
What to Watch Today
It’s honestly not a great matchup for Elder - Miami’s a high-contact team that has enough pop to punish a hanging breaking ball and has a good running game.
The Braves haven’t done well with ‘kitchen sink’ guys that are well sequenced/optimized, and that’s without the dugout’s assistance through calling plays. Let’s hope that, similar to last night, Paddack leaves enough mistakes in the zone for Atlanta to make hard contact.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored to win, and that’s likely a reflection of the ceiling and floor of Elder vs Paddack. Give me Atlanta, provided we get the good version of Elder or we get the offense to make up for the bad version.