The Scouting Report: Braves vs Angels, Game 1
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch tonight
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 9:38 PM ET
Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 71° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 7 MPH
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.(R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzmski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
DH Dom Smith (L)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
It’s the same personnel as always, but in a different order - Dom Smith and Michael Harris II have flipped, allowing both Harris and Mauricio Dubón to flash their speed ahead of the top of the order (and hopefully giving Smith some opportunities to produce some RBI)
Los Angeles Angels
SS Zach Neto (R)
RF Jorge Soler (R)
LF Jo Adell (R)
1B Jeimer Candelario (S)
C Logan O’Hoppe (R)
3B Oswald Peraza (R)
DH Joan Moncada (S)
CF Bryce Teodosio (R)
2B Adam Frazier (L)
Quick thoughts:
Jorge Soler being in right field might give Chris Sale some flashbacks to 2024.
Nobody on LA’s roster has really had any success against Sale except for Mike Trout (6-20, HR, 4 RBI) and he’s out for tonight’s game with a hand injury. Outside of him, Nolan Schanuel is 2-3, Adam Frazier is 2-4 with an RBI, and Travis d’Arnaud is 1-3 with a homer.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Chris Sale (2-0, 0.75)
Quick snapshot (2025):
2.58 ERA / 2.85 xERA / 2.67 FIP
32.4 K% / 6.3 BB% / 2.2% HR
Pitch mix from 2025 (avg FB velo = 94.8 mph)
vs RHH: 46% slider, 44% 4SFB, 9% changeup, 1% sinker
vs LHH: 51% SL, 31% 4SFB, 15% sinker, 2% changeup
What’s different so far this year?
Nothing? He’s still Chris Sale.
Opposing Starter: José Soriano (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
4.26 ERA / 4.04 xERA / 3.73 FIP
21.0% K / 10.8% BB / 1.7% HR
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = sinker (97.2 mph, 49% usage)
Pitch 2 = curveball (85.2 mph, 27% usage)
Pitch 3 = splitter (92.3 mph, 9% usage)
Pitch 4 = four-seamer (97.9 mph, 9% usage)
Pitch 5 = slider (89.2 mph, 6% usage)
What’s different so far this year?
So far in his two starts, Soriano has thrown more curveballs than sinkers, while ramping up the four-seamer usage to about 24%. He’s much more balanced between his top three pitches now, albeit mostly in platoon situations.
How He Attacks Hitters
In last year’s game plans, Soriano liked to go to a whiff pitch (splitter vs LHH, curveball vs RHH) if ahead early or sinkers if he wasn’t, getting pretty diversified in two-strike counts, and prioritizing something he felt confident landing in the zone in full-count scenarios.
In limited action so far this year, Soriano looks like he’s trying to be more unpredictable. He’s also minimized the sinker to lefties, instead going with four-seamers and breaking balls.
Vs RHH: Sinkers and curves, but with sliders
(2025): 51% sinkers, 31% curveballs, 11% sliders, 5% four-seamer, 2% splitter
Vs LHH: Sinkers and curves, but with splitters
(2025): 48% sinker, 23% curveball, 15% splitter, 12% four-seamer, 2% slider
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
There’s very little familiarity with Soriano on Atlanta’s roster. Outside of former AL West rival Jonah Heim, who is 1-12 off of the righty, the rest of Atlanta’s roster has a combined 25 ABs off of the flamethrower. Mauricio Dubón is 1-2 and Matt Olson’s 1-3, while Austin Riley is 1-6 and both Ronald Acuña Jr. (3 ABs), Ozzie Albies (4 ABs), and Michael Harris II (6 ABs) are hitless.
Looking at last year’s performance against righty fastballs of 97 or harder, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies are the two to watch for. Olson hit .297 against the combo of four-seamers and sinkers, while Ozzie hit .280 against high-velocity four-seamers but struggled against sinkers.
The players who struggled are two stars that you were hoping would get going: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley. Against >97 mph fastballs last year:
Acuña: .167 average, .292 slug, 36.5% whiff rate
Riley: .225 average, .300 slug, 28.4% whiff rate
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
If this one’s out of hand after Sale is done, I’d see about letting Aaron Bummer and Jose Suarez take multiple innings each.
Used recently:
All three top leverage arms pitched yesterday, but none of their pitch counts preclude Walt Weiss from using them again.
Potential limitations:
Tyler Kinley has a back-to-back, so he’s likely down unless it’s an emergency - pushing a middle-leverage reliever for three outings in three days is ludicrous to do in early April. Just throw Joel Payamps there instead.
Quick takeaway:
You can use the leverage arms today, but whoever you throw is likely out tomorrow, so choose wisely and only go there if you need to.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Drew Pomeranz, Jordan Romano, and Chase Silseth all got yesterday off so they’re likely the first ones out of the bullpen gate tonight.
Used recently:
Ryan Zeferjahn and Shaun Anderson both threw more than 25 pitches last night, but did it off of three or more days of rest, so if you need them, they might be able to go if they feel okay.
Potential limitations:
Throwing Brent Suter or Sam Bachman today would be malpractice.
Quick takeaway:
I liked him as a Brave, but I’m not convinced that Kurt Suzuki knows how to manage a bullpen.
If Atlanta can get Soriano’s pitch count up early and push him out of the game after five innings, the Angels are going to be in a world of hurt both tonight and for the rest of the series. Celebrate the long at-bats in this one.
What to Watch This Evening
How well does Atlanta handle high velocity when they’re on the road and don’t have access to their Trajekt machine?
Can the Angels bullpen lock down a close win?
Any ‘revenge game’ factor coming from Jorge Soler?
Final Thought
Sorry, I’m still not picking against Chris Sale. If he’s healthy, he’ll punch plenty of tickets tonight. The fact that this is Statcast’s best defense by Fielding Run Value (Atlanta, +9) against its worst defense (Angels, -6) gives me hope that even if/when the Angels put balls in play, we’ll have a guy there.