The Scouting Report: Braves vs Athletics, Game 2

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 78° and partially sunny, wind SSW at 7 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)

Quick thoughts:

• Nothing different from the usual lineup - this will be the likely go-to for the team until Sean Murphy or Ha-Seong Kim return.

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Athletics

SS Jacob Wilson (R)
C Shea Langeliers (R)
1B Nick Kurtz (L)
DH Brent Rooker (R)
LF Tyler Soderstrom (L)
3B Max Muncy (R)
2B Andy Ibáñez (R)
RF Lawrence Butler (L)
CF Denzel Clarke (R)

Quick thoughts:

• Annnnd it appears the Nick Kurtz as leadoff hitter experiment might be over? Jacob Wilson, who makes a lot more sense as a contact bat, is in the lineup at leadoff.

• If he gets on, there’s multiple dangerous bats sitting right behind him in Langeliers, Kurtz, Rooker, and Soderstrom. None of them are particularly fast, but they can blast and you don’t need speed for a home run trot.

• This is the best defensive outfield possible with Tyler Soderstrom on the field. Watch for Clarke to attempt a bunt or otherwise small ball his way on as a “second leadoff man” at the bottom of the lineup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: José Suarez

Quick snapshot:

• 1.86 ERA / 4.22 xERA / 3.70 FIP

• 19.8 K% / 12.3 BB% / 1.2% HR

• Four-seamer/changeup/slider/sinker/curve

What to watch:

• Brent Rooker is 4-5 with three solo homers off of Suarez, so maybe watch out when throwing him anything in the zone.

• Being serious, Suarez induces a lot of swings and a good amount of whiffs, but the contact he gives up tends to be hard (thankfully, mostly on the ground). Getting ahead in the count is always a good strategy for a pitcher, but Suarez has the stuff to fight back even if he’s behind as long as he can keep his four-seamer off the barrel or he can pivot to the sinker to get groundball outs when trying to get back into an at-bat. Don’t chase strikeouts; let this defense work.

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Opposing Starter: Aaron Civale

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 4.85 ERA / 4.10 xERA / 4.63 FIP

• 20.2 K% / 7.6 BB% / 4.2 HR%

The arsenal (2025):

• Pitch 1 = cutter (89.2 mph, 35% usage)

• Pitch 2 = curveball (77.7 mph, 19% usage)

• Pitch 3 = sinker (92.3 mph, 17% usage)

• Pitch 4 = four-seamer (92.1 mph, 16% usage)

• Pitch 5 = slider (83.3 mph, 8% usage)

• Pitch 6 = splitter (85.7 mph, 6%)

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How He Attacks Hitters

Last year, Civale struggled to get whiffs (21.8%) and strikeouts (20.2%), placing in the bottom quartile of both metrics. Instead, he settled for ‘taking the sting out of the swing’, being above-average at preventing hard-hits (39.1% HH rate, 62nd percentile). When opposing batters got one, though, it went a long way. Civale is an extreme flyball pitcher, and so, despite being above-average at not allowing hard-hit balls overall, many of his allowed ones ended up being barrels.

Vs RHH:
34% cutter, 20% sinker, 18% curveball, 14% slider, 12% four-seamer, 1% splitter

Vs LHH:
36% cutter, 19% curveball, 17% sinker, 16% four-seamer, 10% splitter, 2% slider

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Atlanta hitter has seen the well-traveled Civale a ton, but Ronald is 1-4 with a homer off of the righty and Michael Harris is 2-3 with a double.

  • Conversely, Mike Yastrzemski is 1-10 (a solo homer) and Jonah Heim is 1-6

• Civale’s best pitches by Stuff+ grades are his rarely-used sweeper (113), his primary fastball in the cutter (108), and his curveball (107). If he’s forced to pivot to the splitter or the other two fastballs, it could be a long day for the Athletics righty.

• Atlanta’s best hitters off of cutters last year were the trio of Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies, who combined for +13 Run Value off the pitch. Each of them had a batting average over .360 and a slug of at least .500 off the pitch across 108 combined plate appearances.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Look for Tyler Kinley and Joel Payamps to get into tonight’s game if the batting lane allows, as neither has pitched in either four (Kinley) or three days (Payamps).

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias’s eight pitches won’t prevent him from coming back tonight in a save situation, but Robert Suarez might be a guy they want to stay away from after last night’s 18-pitch outing.

Potential limitations:

• Aaron Bummer is likely down if possible, both because a lefty starter on the mound means a RH-hitting lineup and his 25-pitch workload over the last three days. He’s available, but probably not plan A (or B, for that matter).

Quick takeaway:

• If it’s a save situation, I can see Payamps/Kinley/Iglesias covering the final three innings.

• On the flip side, if Suarez gets knocked out of the game early, Martín Pérez likely gets the bulk of the work.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Neither Scott Barlow or Hogan Harris, their only lefty, have pitched since Saturday and so are likely coming in for any sort of competitive inning/leverage situation.

Used recently:

• Last night’s short start meant that four pitchers came out of the pen. but Mark Leiter (11 pitches) and Justin Sterner (8 pitches) both had light enough workloads where they can come back tonight if needed.

Potential limitations:

• JT Ginn likely still isn’t back from Sunday’s bulk work, and Elvis Alvarado’s 42 pitches in the last three days mean he’s also down for everything but emergency situations.

• They may want to stay away from Michael Kelly getting a third outing in four days, given that his 3-day pitch count’s already at 30.

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What to Watch Tonight

• Can a questionable Athletics infield defense turn hard-hit ground balls into outs?

• How deep in the game can José Suarez effectively go?

• Do the Athletics have the available relievers to secure a win if they enter the late innings with a lead?

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Final Thought

I like the matchup of a cutter-dominant Athletics starter with several Braves hitters who all hit cutters well and are spread throughout the lineup. It feels like a recipe for constant production and pressure in every inning.