The Scouting Report: Braves vs Athletics, Game 3
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about today’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 12:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 74° and partially cloudy, wind SSW at 7 mph
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
Again, no real changes for the Braves as far as personnel.
This is also the first time this season that Baldwin has caught Sale - Jonah Heim was behind the plate for the Opening Day start.
Athletics
SS Jacob Wilson (R)
1B Andy Ibáñez (R)
DH Shea Langeliers (R)
RF Brent Rooker (R)
3B Max Muncy (R)
LF Tyler Soderstrom (L)
C Austin Wynns (R)
2B Darell Hernaiz (R)
CF Denzel Clarke (R)
Quick thoughts:
We saw this new ‘Jacob Wilson as leadoff man’ idea immediately bear fruit last night, as Wilson got on base twice in the contest. A’s manager Mark Kotsay is running it back for the finale.
Lawrence Butler gets the day off versus a lefty in Sale, as does Nick Kurtz. Shea Langeliers gets to focus on hitting as the DH, which pushes Brent Rooker to right field.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Chris Sale (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
2.58 ERA / 2.85 xERA / 2.67 FIP
32.4 K% / 6.3 BB% / 2.2% HR
Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 94.8 mph)
vs RHH: 46% slider, 44% 4SFB, 9% changeup, 1% sinker
vs LHH: 51% SL, 31% 4SFB, 15% sinker, 2% changeup
What to watch:
We didn’t see anything significantly different from Sale in his first start of the 2026 season - a bit more fastballs and a bit less sliders than usual, but nothing that makes me want to assume he’s made a major philosophical change over just the inherent variation from start to start as opposing lineups dictate.
The only Athletics that have seen Chris Sale more than four times are former Met Jeff McNeil (.444 avg, RBI in 9 ABs) and well-traveled backup catcher Austin Wynns, who is 3-8. Brent Rooker, however, is 1-4 with a homer and two RBI off the southpaw.
Opposing Starter: Luis Severino (0-0, 3.60 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
4.54 ERA / 4.10 xERA / 3.80 FIP
Road stats: 3.02 ERA, 3.87 FIP
17.6 K% / 7.1 BB% / 2.3 HR%
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (96.1 mph, 28% usage)
Pitch 2 = sweeper (84.5 mph, 25% usage)
Pitch 3 = sinker (95.6 mph, 20% usage)
Pitch 4 = cutter (93.2 mph, 18% usage)
Pitch 5 = changeup (86.2 mph, 5% usage)
Pitch 6 = slider (87.0 mph, 4%)
How He Attacks Hitters
Last season, Severino struggled to induce chase (25th percentile mark of 26.3%), impacting his whiff (6th percentile mark of 18.3%) and strikeout rates (14th percentile mark of 17.6%).
Vs RHH: fastball heavy
27% four-seamer, 26% sinker, 25% sweeper, 14% cutter, 5% slider, 3% changeup
Vs LHH: a lot of gloveside shapes
29% four-seamer, 25% sweeper, 22% cutter, 14% sinker, 8% changeup, 3% slider
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
If we want Acuña, Riley, and Olson to break their power drought, this might be the day - they were a combined +11 Run Value on sweepers last year with six home runs. While Matt Olson hit .229 with a .457 slug on the pitch, Riley was a .320 hitter with a .520 slug and Ronald put up an absurd .857 slugging against the sweeper.
As you’d expect from a high chase guy, Michael Harris struggled with this particular breaking ball: .195 average and .293 slug, whiffing 40% of the time.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Tyler Kinley & Dylan Lee with a lead, Osvaldo Bido in a deficit (unless he’s being saved for long relief)
Used recently:
Joel Payamps threw 14 pitches yesterday, but he could always come back since that was his first game action since Saturday.
Potential limitations:
Clearly, Martín Pérez is down, but that should be the only definitive unavailable arm.
Quick takeaway:
If it’s a save situation, Walt Weiss has multiple ways he can run this, as virtually the entire leverage contingent of the pen is available.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Luis Medina is someone you’ll almost definitely see out of the pen, given that he’s the only reliever who is on three days of rest.
Used recently:
Hogan Harris is likely available today, as he’s pitched just once in the last three days, but it was a higher workload with 23 pitches. Given that the Athletics are off tomorrow (and that he’s the only lefty), they likely have him if needed, even though that might be a bad idea.
Potential limitations:
JT Ginn likely needs one more day, while Justin Sterner is probably down based on both a back-to-back and a pitch count reasoning.
What to Watch Today
How much is Severino willing to lean on the sweeper as his putaway pitch against the top of this Braves lineup that all hit the pitch well?
If it gets to the Athletics bullpen with a lead, can they hold it?
Final Thought
It’s very hard to bet against Chris Sale in any start, but especially against an Athletics squad that not only leads baseball in strikeouts to start the season, but that set a record in the process.