The Scouting Report: Braves vs Blue Jays, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and sunny, wind E at 8 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• With a lefty on the mound, Mike Yastrzemski and Dominic Smith check out of the lineup, replaced by Mauricio Dubón and Eli White. It’s also a bit of load management for Ronald Acuña Jr., who gets a ‘half day’ at designated hitter.

Toronto Blue Jays Lineup

LF Nathan Lukes
RF Yohendrick Piñango
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
DH Jesús Sánchez
2B Ernie Clement
CF Daulton Varsho
3B Kazuma Okamoto
SS Andrés Giménez
C Brandon Valenzuela

Quick thoughts:

• After being able to pinch-hit on Tuesday night, Jesús Sánchez checks in as the designated hitter, batting cleanup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.95)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.95 ERA / 4.27 xERA / 5.06 FIP

• 21.7% K / 10.2% BB / 11.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% each of four-seamer & slider, 10% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 48% slider, 30% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% each of changeup & cutter, 2% curveball

Who to watch:

• Of all people on this roster to hit a home run against Grant Holmes in their careers, Miles Straw is the absolute last person I would have guessed.

Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.65 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.65 ERA / 5.28 xERA / 4.04 FIP

• 17.1 K% / 6.6 BB% / 10.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (31%, 91.3 mph)

• Slider (25%, 78.5 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 77.9 mph)

• Cutter (18%, 86.1 mph)

• Four-seamer (7%, 91.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Slider-dominant mix with minimal four-seam or cutter usage when ahead or with two strikes.

vs RHH: A more balanced sinker-based mix early that wildly swings based on at-bat state: increased changeup/slider/four-seam when ahead, increased sinker/cutter when behind. Slider is the preferred putaway pitch.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• A LOT of Braves players have had a LOT of success off of Patrick Corbin from his time with the Washington Nationals.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Dylan Lee and Tyler Kinley have both enjoyed three days off, while Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd, and Reynaldo López haven’t gotten in a game since Sunday.

  • Dodd was warming up last night, before Elder got out of the 6th. Getting ‘dry humped’, as relievers call that situation, don’t show up on the box score but do impact usage down the line. They might get him some run tonight 9if possible) and then give him a day off.

Used recently:

• Both Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias pitched last night to seal the win, but not with pitch counts onerous enough to rule them out for today.

Potential limitations:

• I don’t see anyone being down, unless it’s for a reason we don’t know about.

Quick takeaway:

• Everyone’s available to seal a win here for manager Walt Weiss.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Hayden Yuenger, who threw 36 pitches on Sunday, has had two days off and should be good to go for tonight.

Used recently

• Mason Fluharty and Braydon Fisher both threw last night, but with reasonable pitch counts that shouldn’t rule them out of this one.

Potential limitations

• No one, based on in-game usage or pitch counts.

Quick takeaway:

• Toronto has the pieces they need, including a fully rested lefty in Adam Macko, to handle this one.

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What to Watch Today

• How does Patrick Corbin fare in his personal House of Horrors known as Truist Park?

  • This will be his 11th career start and in his previous 10, he’s 0-7 with a 6.32 ERA. 61 hits, including 7 homers, in 47 innings will do something to a man.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Patrick Corbin - can he finally, for once, figure out the Atlanta offense?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.