The Scouting Report: Braves vs Blue Jays, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 81° and sunny, wind SE at 6 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
SS Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
Mauricio Dubón moves up into the two-hole, likely to take advantage of Toronto using a left-handed opener today.
Toronto Blue Jays Lineup
DH George Springer
SS Ernie Clement
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
3B Kazuma Okamoto
2B Charles McAdoo
LF Nathan Lukes
CF Miles Straw
C Tyler Heineman
RF Yohendrick Piñango
Quick thoughts:
With a lefty on the mound, several Blue Jays check out of the lineup and Kazuma Okamoto moves up to the cleanup spot.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (8-3, 2.01)
Quick snapshot:
2.01 ERA / 3.19 xERA / 2.90 FIP
30.2% K / 6.4% BB / 23.8% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 41% slider, 31% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup
vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 41% slider, 15% changeup, <1% sinker
Who to watch:
Only five players on Toronto’s roster have faced Sale, and the only two of them with more than three ABs off him are Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. Guerrero’s 2-11 with a homer, while Springer is 6-24 with a homer and 2 RBI.
Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Chad Dallas (MLB DEBUT)
(Toronto is going with a bullpen game for the finale - lefty reliever Mason Fluharty is listed as the opener, but Dallas is expected to be the bulk pitcher behind him.)
Quick snapshot (AAA):
4.50 ERA / 4.93 xERA / 3.40 FIP
24.1 K% / 8.2 BB% / 15.8% K-BB%
The arsenal (in AAA):
Sweeper (30.2%, 82.7 mph)
Curveball (20.7%, 83.2 mph)
Cutter (20.6%, 91.3 mph)
Four-seamer (17.2%, 92.8 mph)
Sinker (11.2%, 93.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters
vs LHH: Unavailable
vs RHH: Unavailable
Sequencing: Unavailable
What This Means for the Braves
I can think of a lot of places I’d rather make my MLB debut than Truist Park in front of the Atlanta Braves offense opposite a likely Hall of Famer on the mound.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd, and Reynaldo López haven’t gotten in a game since Sunday.
Used recently:
The leverage arms have all pitched in the last two days, with Iglesias (one day of rest) and Dylan Lee (low pitch count yesterday) both being the top candidates to come back this evening for the finale, if needed.
Potential limitations:
Robert Suarez is coming off a back-to-back, but we did see Tyler Kinley get used on a third straight day in this similar situation last week due to his low pitch counts. Kinley, BTW, threw 21 pitches yesterday for the 9th and might be given the day off if Atlanta only needs one or two bullpen arms to finish behind Chris Sale.
Quick takeaway:
When you think about how many innings you normally need to cover behind Chris Sale (which isn’t many), things look pretty good for Atlanta’s pen today.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Toronto has several relievers who haven’t pitched all week, like Connor Seabold, Jeff Hoffman, and Tyler Rogers, making a bullpen game (behind a bulk arm) possible.
Used recently
Adam Macko and Hayden Yuenger both threw less than 20 pitches yesterday and could likely be brought back, if needed.
Potential limitations
The same goes for Yariel Rodriguez, although given that he threw over 20 stressful pitches, he might not be the first choice for the Blue Jays today.
Quick takeaway:
Toronto is equipped to throw a bullpen game today, especially if Dallas can give them three or four innings.
What to Watch Today
Bullpen games are always tough because you need everyone to avoid a bad outing. When you combine that with someone making his major league debut, it’s tough sledding for the Blue Jays today.
Toronto’s offense hasn’t been as good against lefties as they have been righties, but Kazuma Okamoto is hitting .280/.357/.500 off of southpaws this season and outside of Vlad Guerrero Jr., he’s the big one to watch for.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). This one comes down to Atlanta’s offense not letting off the gas now that the series is won. If they can give Chris Sale some run support, this one feels pretty academic. (Famous last words)
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.