The Scouting Report: Braves vs Brewers, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 82° and intermittent clouds, but it looks like they’ve avoided the worst of the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
DH Dominic Smith
CF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
LF Eli White
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II remains unavailable after tweaking his back, earlier in the Giants series. Manager Walt Weiss indicated that an injured list stint is still possible for the centerfielder.

Milwaukee Brewers Lineup

DH Christian Yelich
LF Jackson Chourio
2B Brice Turang
C William Contreras
CF Garrett Mitchell
1B Andrew Vaughn
RF Blake Perkins
SS Cooper Pratt
3B Joey Ortiz

Quick thoughts:

• No surprises for Milwaukee, who usually sits outfielder Jake Bauers versus lefties.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (5-3, 2.90)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.90 ERA / 4.02 xERA / 3.82 FIP

• 20.8% K / 8.6% BB / 12.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 53% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% cutter, 8% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 27% cutter, 20% sinker, 10% curveball, 8% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• Something nerve-wracking to watch for tonight: Despite only three Brewers having ten or more ABs off of Pérez, six different Milwaukee hitters have hit a combined seven homers off the lefty.

Opposing Starter: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (8-2, 1.34 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.34 ERA / 2.04 xERA / 1.68 FIP

• 39.8 K% / 6.7 BB% / 33.1% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (64%, 100.1 mph)

• Slider (14%, 93.1 mph)

• Curveball (11%, 87.5 mph)

• Cutter (10%, 96.3 mph)

• Changeup (2%, 92.5 mph)(

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seam dominant mix that drops cutters for curveballs when ahead and with two strikes, as well as increases four-seam usage when behind (at the expense of the curve)

vs RHH: Four-seam dominant mix that drops cutters for curveballs with two strikes, as well as increases four-seam usage when behind (at the expense of the curve)

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s a 100+ mph fastball in the zone - you either hit it or you don’t. If you can’t catch up to it, it doesn’t matter what else he throws.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• None of Atlanta’s leverage relievers have thrown since last week, on account of multiple rainouts and multiple losses in the games they did play.

Used recently:

• Reynaldo López and Dylan Dodd both had multi-inning outings on Tuesday, but with two days off, they should be good to go for tonight.

Potential limitations

• Carlos Carrasco is more than likely down for tonight after throwing four innings of relief for JR Ritchie on Wednesday.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Brewers throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Co-closer Trevor Megill hasn’t thrown since Tuesday for the Brewers.

Used recently

• Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe pitched in the last series, but with enough time off where they should be available for tonight’s opener.

Potential limitations

• Chad Patrick (50 pitches on Wednesday), Grant Anderson (back-to-back with 35 total pitches), and Drew Rom (32 pitches on Thursday) are all likely down today based on usage.

Quick takeaway:

• The Brewers have plenty of leverage arms available, but bridging to the pen might be a bit tough if they don’t get length out of Misiorowski.

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What to Watch Today

• Misiorowski has allowed one earned run since the beginning of May. The last time he got got, though, was after Pittsburgh strung together a big inning thanks to a HBP, several line drive singles, and a stolen base on April 25th. He’s not unbeatable, but it’s going to take a strong offensive inning and plenty of balls in play to do it.

• The Brewers have hit for more power against lefty starters this season, with a .426 SLG/.762 OPS (versus a .387 SLG/.725 OPS vs RHP). The key drivers here have been Andrew Vaughn, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio.

Final Thought

The Braves are NOT favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). It’s all going to come down to if the Braves can get anything off of Jacob Misiorowski.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.