It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Location: Historic Bowman Field, Williamsport, PA
Note: The ballpark’s both unusually short down the lines (323 ft to left, 331 ft to right) while also having an enormous centerfield (411 ft straightaway). Milwaukee is the league’s worst team at pulled fly balls (12.5%), while the Braves are 14th-best (18.7%), so this slightly favors Atlanta.
Rough back-of-the-napkin pulled flyball platoon numbers this season:
Drohan vs RHP ~ 21% - watch Acuña, Riley, and Thomas here
Mahle vs lefties ~ 22% - Yelich and Bowers would be my worries
TV: ESPN (national exclusive)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: 70° and partly sunny, wind WSW at 8 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Drake Baldwin
LF Lane Thomas
SS Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
The Braves are doing something a bit different here, moving Michael Harris II to the leadoff spot and dropping the slumping Drake Baldwin (5-27 in his last seven games) to the #5 spot in the order.
Milwaukee Brewers Lineup
LF Jackson Chourio
2B Brice Turang
C William Contreras
RF Jake Bauers
1B Andrew Vaughn
DH Christian Yelich
SS Joey Ortiz
CF Garrett Mitchell
3B David Hamilton
Quick thoughts:
Christian Yelich is batting 6th because in the month of August, he’s hitting .167/.215/.283.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (4-10, 4.53)
Quick snapshot:
4.53 ERA / 4.19 xERA / 4.12 FIP
With Atlanta, he’s 1-1 with a 1.45 ERA/4.80 xERA/2.92 FIP
22.8 % K / 8.5% BB / 14.4% K-BB%
With Atlanta, it’s 27.5% K, 4.3% BB, and 23.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 50% four-seamer, 33% splitter, 16% cutter, 1% slider, <1% sinker
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 19% splitter and cutter, 15% slider, 2% sinker
What to watch:
Atlanta has radically simplified Mahle’s arsenal. In three Braves starts, he has thrown the four-seamer and splitter on 86.2% of his pitches, up from approximately 75% over the full season. The results: 18.2 innings, three earned runs, 19 strikeouts and three walks. The slider has almost disappeared, which makes sense given its .459 wOBA and .559 slugging percentage allowed this season.
Watch the splitter’s swing-and-miss. Mahle generated 11 whiffs on 39 splitter swings in his first two Atlanta starts, but only four on 24 swings against Minnesota. He still delivered 6.2 innings of two-run baseball because he needed only 76 pitches, but the splitter’s whiff rate will tell us whether he has his best version of the new two-pitch plan.
Righties have surprisingly been the greater problem. Right-handed hitters have produced a .293/.370/.455 line and .825 OPS against Mahle, compared with .223/.276/.391 and a .667 OPS by lefties. He has struck out 26% of the lefties he has faced but only 19% of the righties, while walking righties more frequently. That matters against William Contreras, Jackson Chourio and the right-handed portion of Milwaukee’s lineup.
The defining early statistic is Mahle’s first inning. Opponents have hit .318/.384/.557 against him in the opening inning, resulting in a 6.00 ERA and four homers. He just surrendered Josh Bell’s two-run homer in the first inning at Minnesota. Against Milwaukee’s league-leading on-base offense, an early walk immediately creates the possibility of a short-porch three-run swing.
Who to watch:
Most of Milwaukee’s roster has faced Mahle, but it’s almost exclusively two or three ABs except for the 19 from veteran Christian Yelich.
Mahle’s dominated: David Hamilton (0-3), Garrett Mitchell, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang (0-2), Christian Yelich (.158 average, 1 RBI)
Mahle’s gotten got: William Contreras (1-3, double, walk), Andrew Vaughn (2-4, walk)
Opposing Starter: LHP Shane Drohan (6-4, 3.86 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.86 ERA / 3.62 xERA / 3.35 FIP
23.5 K% / 7.8 BB% / 15.7% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (29%, 94.9 mph)
Slider (21%, 86.3 mph)
Sinker (20%, 94.8 mph)
Curveball (13%, 80.4 mph)
Cutter (12%, 90.8 mph)
Changeup (5%, 86.1 mph)
What This Means for the Braves
Hunt the sinker, survive the four-seamer and slider. Drohan’s 95-mph four-seamer has held hitters to a .141 average and .232 slugging percentage with a 30.6% whiff rate. His slider has been even more effective, producing a 40.2% whiff rate and .224 wOBA. The sinker is the glaring weak link: .384 average, .628 slugging and .475 wOBA, with only a 13.3% whiff rate. Atlanta should be looking for the sinker over the plate instead of trying to manufacture damage against his two best pitches.
This is the game to load up on righties. Left-handed hitters have a .643 OPS and zero home runs against Drohan. Righties have a .706 OPS, have drawn 27 of his 33 walks and have hit all nine home runs he has allowed. Acuña, Riley and Atlanta’s other right-handed bats have the better power path, especially with left field only 323 feet away.
The 3.86 ERA slightly oversells Drohan as a starter. He has a 4.64 ERA across 14 starts, compared with approximately a 1.69 ERA in relief. He also threw 39 pitches over two scoreless innings Tuesday, essentially giving him a competitive between-start throwing session. I wouldn’t assume a severe pitch limit, but he averages only a little more than five innings per start.
Don’t expect an automatic first-inning opportunity. Drohan has a 2.57 first-inning ERA, a .528 opponent OPS and has not allowed a first-inning homer. His second inning has been much shakier: 5.14 ERA, .826 OPS and three homers.
The Braves against Drohan: No Braves have ever faced him in the majors
The good: N/A
The bad: N/A
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
(Note: Drohan’s worked as both a starter and a reliever this season, and this - unfortunately - serves as his approach for the entire season, not specifically as a starter. Unfortunate data limitation we’re working with here.)
vs LHH: A slider-and-fastball-family-based arsenal with expected tendencies - more sliders when ahead, and with two strikes, more cutters and sinkers when behind. The offspeed and curveball are rarely used at all here, making this a single-non-fastball look.
vs RHH: A multi-breaking-ball arsenal with relatively static curveball use but adding the slider when ahead and with two strikes, while making the expected sinker and cutter cuts in those situations (and ramping them up when behind). Interestingly, Drohan’s changeup isn’t a big part of his approach to righties, which is odd for a lefty.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
The leverage arms haven’t thrown since the White Sox makeup game on Thursday, except for 15 pitches Dylan Dodd threw on Friday. Longman Ray Kerr’s also available, having not thrown since getting a single inning on Wednesday.
Potential limitations:
Brent Suter is almost certainly down for Williamsport, having thrown 51 pitches across back-to-back outings on Friday and Saturday. Victor Mederos is probably a ‘yellow light’, to use CJ Nitkowski’s terminology, given his 24 pitches on Saturday.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces they need to secure a win and avert a sweep, if they can get a lead here.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Yikes - lots of dark colors here, which should help Atlanta.
Likely Available:
Several of the low-leverage arms like Grant Anderson and Bryse Wilson (old friend alert) are rested, having not yet thrown in this series.
Potential Limitations
Setup men Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick both had extended outings on Thursday and then pitched yesterday, putting them in the 60+ pitch range over the last three.
Closer Trevor Megill worked a back-to-back on Thursday and Friday, but with both Ashby and Patrick potentially down for a seven-man pen, he’s likely getting the 9th if Milwaukee has a lead.
Quick takeaway:
Milwaukee has pieces available, but it might require someone to step up one rung of the leverage ladder, given recent bullpen usage.
Final Thought
Braves are an underdog on the moneyline: +106 to Milwaukee’s -114, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The likely hinge point is this: Can Atlanta force Drohan away from his four-seamer/slider combination and into sinkers over the plate before Mahle gives Milwaukee early traffic? Atlanta has a respectable .407 slugging percentage against lefties but only a .304 OBP. This is a particularly good night to reverse that formula: get someone aboard, then let the right-handed power bats attack Drohan toward the 323-foot left-field corner. On the other side, Mahle’s first inning and the quality of his splitter should tell us quickly whether Milwaukee’s patience will overwhelm his recent improvement.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
It's getting more difficult to feel excited about watching a Braves' game.