The Scouting Report: Braves vs Brewers, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 86° and intermittent clouds. Wind WSW at 7 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
RF Eli White
C Joey Bart
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris checks back into the lineup since leaving Tuesday’s series opener against the Giants with a back issue, while Joey Bart makes his Braves debut batting 8th. He’ll wear #16.

Milwaukee Brewers Lineup

LF Jackson Chourio
2B Brice Turang
C William Contreras
DH Gary Sanchez
1B Andrew Vaughn
RF Blake Perkins
CF Garrett Mitchell
SS Cooper Pratt
3B Joey Ortiz

Quick thoughts:

• Not many changes here, other than swapping out Christian Yelich for Sanchez at designated hitter.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (5-3, 2.30)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.30 ERA / 3.49 xERA / 2.82 FIP

• 28.8% K / 6.3% BB / 22.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 32% sinker, 24% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 41% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

Who to watch:

• While no Brewers hitters have ever taken Sale deep, several have had success in their limited at-bats. Blake Perkins is 3-4 with two RBIs, while William Contreras is 2-6 with an RBI, Joey Ortiz is 3-8 with an RBI, and Jackson Chourio is 4-9.

Opposing Starter: LHP Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.47 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.47 ERA / 3.37 xERA / 3.05 FIP

• 30.0 K% / 6.7 BB% / 23.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (59%, 94.9 mph)

• Slurve (30%, 82.2 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 86.2 mph)

• Sinker (1%, 94.5 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam/slurve dominant mix that ramps up slurve usage when ahead and four-seam usage when behind. Pretty standard.

vs RHH: A three-pitch mix that only really changes when he’s behind, where Harrison throws more four-seamers at the expense of both slurves and changeups.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Only six different Braves have ever faced Harrison in a regular-season game, and there’s a total of three hits among them - two from Austin Riley and one from Ha-Seong Kim.

---

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Atlanta’s medium-leverage arms have all had three days off and will likely pitch today if this one isn’t close

Used recently:

• The high-leverage trio of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias all threw last night and can likely come back, although the Braves likely would want Suarez’s outing to be a short one. Look for the rested Didier Fuentes to possibly get usage there instead of Suarez.

Potential limitations

• Carlos Carrasco is likely down still for today after throwing four innings of relief for JR Ritchie on Wednesday.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Brewers throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Co-closer Trevor Megill hasn’t thrown since Tuesday for the Brewers, while Aaron Ashby has had two days off since his back-to-back.

Used recently

• Abner Uribe threw only 13 pitches last night and can likely come back for the Brewers, if needed.

Potential limitations

• Craig Yoho has pitched on back-to-back days and so is probably down today.

Quick takeaway:

• The Brewers have plenty of leverage arms available..

---

What to Watch Today

• Harrison’s a very similar pitcher to Sale stylistically - lower arm slot lefty, with two fastballs, a changeup, and one notable breaking ball with significant horizontal movement. It’s a straightforward package that is easier to plan for than to actually defeat.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.0 runs). You’ll need to forgive me for thinking it’ll be a walk in the park against Kyle Harrison, though, who is having a breakout season.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.