The Scouting Report: Braves vs Brewers, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 83° and foggy. Wind SW at 6 mph. Some light thunderstorms are possible in the 2:00 hour

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, which I can understand - you’ve already won the series, so it’s not like starting him over Jorge Mateo is too harmful - and maybe this kind of low-pressure situation is exactly what’s needed to get him going.

Milwaukee Brewers Lineup

DH Christian Yelich
LF Jackson Chourio
2B Brice Turang
C William Contreras
1B Jake Bauers
CF Garrett Mitchell
RF Sal Frelick
SS Cooper Pratt
3B David Hamilton

Quick thoughts:

• Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick, among others, rejoin the lineup with a righty on the mound for the Braves.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-4, 3.15)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.15 ERA / 3.25 xERA / 3.76 FIP

• 19.9% K / 7.4% BB / 12.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 33% four-seamer, 27% slider, 18% cutter, 12% changeup, 10% sinker

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 30% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 2% cutter

Who to watch:

• Brice Turang is 4-10 with a homer and two RBI, but William Contreras is only 2-10.

Opposing Starter: LHP Robert Gasser (0-3, 4.88 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.88 ERA / 3.33 xERA / 6.10 FIP

• 22.4 K% / 10.3 BB% / 12.1% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sweeper (28%, 80.1 mph)

• Sinker (27%, 91.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (19%, 92.3 mph)

• Cutter (17%, 87.7 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 87.3 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-pitch mix that varies pretty considerably. He ramps up sweeper and four-seam usage when ahead and both four-seam and changeup usage with two strikes, both at the expense of sinker and cutter, but cuts sweeper and four-seam usage when behind in favor of sinkers and cutters.

vs RHH: A five-pitch mix that also varies pretty considerably: minimal four-seamer usage unless he’s ahead or has two strikes, where he also ramps up sweeper usage at the expense of his sinker and cutter. Cutter is the primary pitch when behind in the count, while sinker’s most common before getting to two strikes. Changeup usage is pretty consistently at 13-18% until two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• The only Braves hitter that has seen Gasser is Joey Bart, who is 2-2 off of the lefty.

• There’s a very strong proclivity for righties to get a first pitch strike, and the Braves have shown a tendency to swing early in the count in this series. Look for some ambushed first pitches by Atlanta today.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Atlanta’s medium-leverage arms have all had four days off and will likely pitch today if this one isn’t close.

Used recently:

• Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias both got a day off after throwing 20 or more pitches on Friday. James Karinchak, who is starting to get into the Tree of Trust, threw just eleven pitches for his clean inning yesterday and can likely come back today, if needed.

Potential limitations

• Dylan Lee is more than likely down today after a back-to-back at 27 total pitches. Didier Fuentes, who covered an inning on 28 pitches last night, is likely given the day off on the basis of his pitch count.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Brewers throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• A lot of the medium-leverage arms should be available after not pitching so far in this very close series.

Used recently

• Lefty Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and Craig Yoho have all pitched in this series but should be available for today’s finale.

Potential limitations

• Abner Uribe has pitched on back-to-back days and so is probably down today.

Quick takeaway:

• The Brewers have plenty of leverage arms available, although the Braves have seen just about all of them by this point in the series.

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What to Watch Today

• ‘Bob Gas’ is better than his ERA would lead you to believe, with the lefty doing a great job of minimizing hard contact. He allows a ton of it to be in the air (1st percentile ground ball rate of 24.6%), though, and as we saw from Ozzie Albies yesterday, it doesn’t need to be incredibly hard-hit to carry out of the ballpark.

• Elder’s looking to stabilize after a few rough-ish starts. Is the slight drop in performance because he’s pushed up the sinker usage and dropped his four-seamer to 15-20%, or are the sinkers a side-effect of not having the fastball? We’ll find out today.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a higher-scoring game (O/U 9.0 runs). This one likely comes down to Bryce Elder - can he keep a very good Milwaukee offense at bay through getting whiffs, or will they constantly put balls in play and force Atlanta to defend every blade of grass?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.