The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cardinals, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Eli White
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
After a week of hitting lower in the order, Drake Baldwin’s back to leadoff for tonight’s series opener.
St. Louis Cardinals Lineup
2B JJ Wetherholt
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
DH Nelson Velázquez
3B José Fermín
SS Masyn Winn
LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Blaze Jordan
CF Nathan Church
Quick thoughts:
First baseman Alec Burleson gets the night off, moving Jordan from the hot to the cold corner and inserting Fermín into the lineup.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (6-4, 3.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.00 ERA / 4.04 xERA / 3.91 FIP
20.7% K / 9.3% BB / 11.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 53% sinker, 28% changeup, 11% cutter, 7% curveball, 1% four-seamer
vs RHH: 34% changeup, 27% cutter, 22% sinker, 9% curveball, 8% four-seamer
Who to watch:
There is very little experience against Pérez on the St. Louis roster, nevermind any success. Masyn Winn is 2-5, while Pedro Pagés is 1-4, Lars Nootbaar is 1-2, and both José Fermín (three ABs) and Jordan Walker (two ABs) are hitless.
Opposing Starter: LHP Matthew Liberatore (3-5, 5.56 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.56 ERA / 5.70 xERA / 5.26 FIP
20.2 K% / 8.4 BB% / 11.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (33%, 94.5 mph)
Slider (21%, 86.7 mph)
Curveball (17%, 79.5 mph)
Changeup (15%, 88.7 mph)
Sinker (9%, 94.5 mph)
Cutter (4%, 90.8 mph)
Splitter (1%, 87.0)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A slider-dominant mix, cutting four-seamers when ahead and with two strikes to throw even more (and vice versa when behind in the count) and virtually never throwing a curveball when behind in the count.
vs RHH: A much more diverse pitch mix, one that throws extra four-seamers early and with two strikes, ramps up curveball and slider use when ahead and with two strikes, and throws more sinkers when behind and changeups prior to two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
The Braves don’t have a ton of experience off of Liberatore, but some of these small sample sizes are really good - Drake Baldwin’s 2-2 with an RBI, while Rowdy Tellez is 2-4 with a homer and two RBI.
The counterpoint here is that Ozzie Albies is 0-4 and Michael Harris is 1-5.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Everybody? Everybody.
Used recently:
Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Tyler Kinley all pitched on Sunday, but with one off day and minimal workloads in San Francisco, they should be good to go for tonight.
Potential limitations
None.
Quick takeaway:
This is probably the most well-rested the bullpen’s been all season.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Longman Max Rajcic is fresh, having thrown only once in the last week. Lefty Justin Bruhl has had two days off.
Used recently
All of the leverage arms, including closer Riley O’Brien and setup men JoJo Romero (lefty) and George Soriano, got into Sunday’s game. None of them had onerous workloads, though, so they should be good to go for today.
Potential limitations
Congrats on the sex, Ryan Stanek.
Quick takeaway:
The Cardinals are as close to full strength as they can be without middle reliever Stanek, who is on paternity leave.
What to Watch Today
Matthew Liberatore has struggled both with lefties (.943 OPS allowed) and on the road (1-3, 6.00 ERA), although he’s had much better strikeout rates away from Busch Stadium.
Last week versus San Diego was the first time Martín Pérez hasn’t finished five innings in a start this season. Provided he doesn’t take any more comebackers off the lower half, will he get back to his five-and-dive ways?
Final Thought
The Braves are a home favorite in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.5 runs) game. Can the Braves hold local boy Jordan Walker and the impressive Cardinals offense down? Can Atlanta’s offense find the runs that were ever so elusive on the West Coast?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.