The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cardinals, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Jarvis, called up today from Triple-A Gwinnett, will get the start at shortstop and provide another lefty bat for the Braves.
St. Louis Cardinals Lineup
2B JJ Wetherholt
DH Ivan Herrera
1B Alec Burleson
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
CF Nathan Church
3B Blaze Jordan
C Jimmy Crooks
Quick thoughts:
Exact same lineup as game two - let’s hope that works in Atlanta’s favor.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Hurston Waldrep (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
2.88 ERA / 3.88 xERA / 3.21 FIP
24.0% K / 9.6% BB / 14.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix (2025):
vs LHH: 36% splitter, 21% cutter, 20% sinker, 15% curveball, 7% slider, 2% 4S
vs RHH: 27% splitter, 23% cutter, 19% slider, 17% sinker, 10% curveball, 3% 4S
What to watch:
So far this season, Waldrep obviously has an incredibly small sample size, but the larger idea of “throw more strikes” will always hold true. At his best, Waldrep’s similar to former Braves starter Ian Anderson- he may always struggle to be around the zone enough to not get into jams, but if he gets ahead of you, he’s got a devastating offspeed pitch that can put you away.
Opposing Starter: RHP Dustin May (5-6, 4.30 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.30 ERA / 3.71 xERA / 3.32 FIP
22.5 K% / 6.4 BB% / 16.1% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (26%, 96.9 mph)
Cutter (22%, 93.2 mph)
Sweeper (20%, 85.9)
Sinker (18%, 96.5 mph)
Changeup (7%, 90.4 mph)
Curveball (7%, 83.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A multi-fastball-based six-pitch mix, with opposite-handed sweepers when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of the cutter), while throwing more cutters when behind at the expense of the curveball and sweeper.
vs RHH: A simplified five-pitch mix, one that is pretty standard: more breaking balls (specifically sweepers) when ahead at the expense of sinkers and cutters, as well as increased sweeper and four-seamer usage with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Every member of Atlanta’s roster but Jim Jarvis have seen May in a game before, but no one’s really been all that successful in their small sample sizes other than Mike Yastrzemski (7-14) and Austin Riley (3-5, 2 HRs).
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Tyler Kinley was throwing a bit last night in the 8th inning, but never got fully hot or into the game late. I’d bet the team wants him to have an inning today.
Used recently:
Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes both got double-digit pitches in last night, but based solely on pitch count, nothing that should prevent them from returning today. The Braves have been cautious with Fuentes, but he has pitched a back-to-back before.
Potential limitations
Both Dylan Dodd and Raisel Iglesias have thrown in each of the first two games of the series, but I’d assume that the low pitch count for Iglesias (22 total) has hm a candidate to come back tonight for a save situation, if it’s needed.
Quick takeaway:
If the Braves get a lead tonight, they’ve got plenty of arms to choose from but it may be a mix-and-match situation if they don’t want to use Iglesias on three straight days.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Matt Svanson is well-rested, having not yet pitched in this series.
Used recently
Middle relievers Justin Bruihl and Gordon Graceffo both got into last night’s game, but not with pitch counts that should have them down for tonight.
Potential limitations
Longman Max Rajcic, however, likely is down today after throwing 24 pitches last night.
Quick takeaway:
The Cardinals likely have the arms needed to secure the series win, if it comes down to it.
What to Watch Today
Dustin May has been dreadful against lefties this season, allowing a .794 OPS (as compared to a .513 against righties), and a lot of it is…everything but the sweeper.
He also allows his worst slugging percentage, by far, the first time through the order (.415 vs .361 vs .333), so let’s hope the lefties can jump on him early.
Can Waldrep stay around the zone enough, especially early, to get ahead of batters? That was a prerequisite for his use of the splitter last season.
Final Thought
The Braves are a home favorite in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.0 runs) game. Does Atlanta take the series against the Cardinals, or will May’s stuff outduel Waldrep’s?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.