The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cardinals, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Despite specifically requesting it last night, Jorge Mateo is not hitting leadoff tonight. He’s still in the lineup, though, batting 9th.
St. Louis Cardinals Lineup
2B JJ Wetherholt
DH Ivan Herrera
1B Alec Burleson
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
CF Nathan Church
3B Blaze Jordan
C Jimmy Crooks
Quick thoughts:
Alec Burleson checks back into the lineup after getting Tuesday off versus a lefty.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (3-1, 3.47 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.47 ERA / 4.85 xERA / 4.48 FIP
19.9% K / 10.4% BB / 9.5% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 28% slider, 14% curveball, 6% changeup
vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 36% slider, 4% curveball, <1% changeup
Who to watch:
Only three Cardinals hitters have faced López and they are a combined 0-5.
Opposing Starter: RHP Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.12 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.12 ERA / 5.58 xERA / 4.28 FIP
16.1 K% / 5.9 BB% / 10.1% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (26%, 91.6 mph)
Changeup (21%, 86.7 mph)
Sinker (17%, 90.4 mph)
Curveball (11%, 77.9 mph)
Cutter (11%, 86.7 mph)
Sweeper (10%, 81.4)
Slider (4%, 83.6 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seamer-dominant mix, with extra curveballs early in the count, fewer curveballs in favor of sliders when ahead and with two strikes, and reduced cutter usage with two strikes.
vs RHH: A sinker-dominant mix, one that throws additional sinkers early in the count and when behind (cutting back on sweepers and four-seamers), ramps up sweeper and four-seamer usage when ahead and with two strikes, and essentially won’t throw curveballs or sliders when behind in the count.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Just like St. Louis’s small sample size and lack of success off of López, it’s a similar story here for Atlanta off of McGreevy. Joey Bart’s 0-4 and Mike Yastrzemski is 0-2 off of the righty, but Dominic Smith’s 1-3 represents the only past hit off of either starter in today’s game.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Tyler Kinley all pitched on Sunday, but have now had two days off and could get some action tonight if Atlanta has a lead late.
Used recently:
Raisel Iglesias and medium-leverage cadre - Ian Hamilton, James Karinchak, and Dylan Dodd - each took an inning last night but should be able to return if needed.
Potential limitations
None.
Quick takeaway:
If the Braves get a lead tonight (easier said than done, apparently), Atlanta has the pieces to put it away.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Longman Max Rajcic is fresh, having thrown only once in the last week, while lefty Justin Bruhl and righty Matt Svanson have each had three days off.
Used recently
St. Louis went to their leverage arms last night and, with the exception of closer Riley O’Brien, all needed more than 20 pitches to get through their respective outings.
Potential limitations
If the Cardinals have any relievers down today, I could see it being George Soriano and JoJo Romero, on account of three-day pitch counts of 40 and 39, respectively.
Quick takeaway:
The Cardinals likely have the arms needed to secure an early series win, but if the Braves mount threats against virtually any of the leverage arms, they’re likely out for the finale.
What to Watch Today
Expected home plate umpire Jim Wolf is bottom-half as far as ball/strike accuracy, coming in at 93.19% (per Ump Scorecards), but he’s in the top quartile for consistency (meaning his zone and calls, while sometimes wrong, don’t meaningfully change).
Similar to Matthew Liberatore yesterday, Michael McGreevy has been significantly worse on the road than he has at home. Didn’t help Atlanta yesterday, though, so I’m not sure if this matters.
Final Thought
The Braves are a home favorite in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.0 runs) game. After a quiet night on Tuesday against a struggling starter, can the Atlanta offense tap into the difference between McGreevy’s actual ERA (3.12) and his estimators (5.58 xERA / 4.28 FIP)?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.