The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cubs, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV, TBS (out-of-market only)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 72° and mostly sunny, wind ESE at 8 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Ha-Seong Kim
RF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• Kim is making his 2026 debut, batting 8th. It’s the 21st unique lineup in the season’s 42 games.

Chicago Cubs Lineup

2B Nico Hoerner
DH Michael Conforto
3B Alex Bregman
LF Ian Happ
RF Seiya Suzuki
1B Michael Busch
C Moises Ballesteros
SS Dansby Swanson
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Quick thoughts:

• Whew, that’s a tough lineup to navigate through. Even the bottom, Swanson and PCA, have the ability to beat you with one swing of the bat. Feels like this is the deepest lineup Atlanta has faced all season.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.34 ERA / 4.26 xERA / 5.02 FIP

• 18.1% K / 10.6% BB / 7.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 41% four-seamer, 31% slider, 14% curveball, 8% cutter, 5% changeup, <1% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% slider, 33% four-seamer, 13% sinker, 6% curveball, 2% cutter

Who to watch:

• Only two Cubs hitters have ever faced Holmes, and they’re both guys who joined the team this season. Alex Bregman is 0-2, while Michael Conforto is 3-5 with three walks and a double

Opposing Starter: RHP Colin Rea (4-1, 4.03 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.03 ERA / 4.49 xERA / 3.67 FIP

• 21.1 K% / 7.2 BB% / 13.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (40%, 93.7 mph)

• Splitter (19%, 87.5 mph)

• Slider (13%, 85.7 mph)

• Sinker (9%, 92.5 mph)

• Cutter (7%, 86.9 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 79.6 mph)

• Sweeper (6%, 82.5 mph)

How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A fastball-dominant mix that ramps up splitters and cutters when behind, sliders as a putaway pitch, and uses curveballs as an early strike-stealer

vs RHH: Better sequenced mix that goes to the sweeper when ahead, 4S/slider when behind, and sinkers/cutters to get strikes when needed.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Not a ton of success for the Braves off of Rea, but several have taken him deep - Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Mike Yastrzemski (twice)

• Interestingly, Rea apparently likes to throw his sinker in the middle of the zone, not the lower third. It’s an odd location, but it’s happened enough this year where it appears to either be an intentional decision or him consistently missing over the plate while he’s trying to run it off the plate to a righty. Something to watch for today.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The high-leverage options are mostly well-rested and can shorten the outing for Atlanta if needed.

Used recently:

• Reynaldo López needed 42 pitches to get through two innings on Saturday, but is likely still available for the opener.

Potential limitations:

• Martín Pérez may be held for a potential start - the Braves have done that a few times as they look to buy rest for Chris Sale et al.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces needed to secure a close win, if it comes to that.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The full pen projects to be available tonight for Chicago.

Used recently

• Chicago used a trio of moderate-leverage relievers on Sunday, but none have the recent usage or pitch count to be down for today.

Potential limitations

• None

Quick takeaway:

• The Cubs have two lefties in their pen in Ryan Rolison and Hoby Milner, as well as their leverage relievers in Phil Maton, Jacob Webb, and closer Daniel Palencia. Atlanta’s pen is stronger on paper, but Chicago has their go-to pieces available if it comes to that.

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What to Watch Today

• The Braves have struggled with the well-sequenced, kitchen sink-type guys this season, so let’s see if they can get it done against Rea.

• When Holmes is on, he’s hard for opposing offenses to handle. But running a walk rate of over 10% against the team that leads MLB in free passes means this could be a very long day for Braves pitching.

Final Thought

Atlanta is a favorite on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-ish scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). To me, this all comes down to Grant Holmes - if he can avoid the walks, the Braves and Cubs are pretty evenly matched. But if Chicago starts cashing in the free passes, the Braves could be in trouble in a hurry here.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.