The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cubs, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 71° and sunny, wind NW at 12 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Ha-Seong Kim
RF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• Another new lineup for the Braves, the 23rd of the season, coming in the season’s 44th game.

• This feels like the best version of the lineup until Ronald Acuña Jr. comes back sometime next week (fingers crossed), although I wouldn’t hate if someone with better speed would step up as the leadoff hitter. Ha-Seong Kim, maybe?

Chicago Cubs Lineup

2B Nico Hoerner
3B Alex Bregman
LF Ian Happ
DH Seiya Suzuki
RF Matt Shaw
1B Michael Busch
SS Dansby Swanson
C Miguel Amaya
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Quick thoughts:

• Fun fact to me and no one else - Dansby Swanson’s hit in all three bottom-of-the-order lineup spots in the series.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (6-2, 2.20 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.20 ERA / 3.05 xERA / 3.45 FIP

• 29.3% K / 6.3% BB / 23% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 30% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 16% changeup, <1% sinker

Who to watch:

• Alex Bregman is looking to exorcise that Chris Sale-sized demon - he’s hitting just .143 off of Sale in fourteen career ABs. The counterpoint here is Carson Kelly - the backstop’s just 1-3 off of Sale, but the hit was a home run.

Opposing Starter: RHP Ben Brown (1-1, 1.82 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.82 ERA / 2.57 xERA / 2.63 FIP

• 23.7 K% / 7.9 BB% / 15.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (36%, 96.5 mph)

• Curveball (35%, 86.9 mph)

• Sinker (23%, 96.6 mph)

• Changeup (6%, 90.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

(Brown has been working as a reliever but just started being converted to the rotation, so take all of this with a grain of salt.)

vs LHH: Heavy fastball usage early and when behind, changeups when ahead, and knuckle curve as the putaway pitch.

vs RHH: Sinker early, both fastballs when behind, curveballs when ahead and to end an at-bat.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• 18 ABs off of Brown on Atlanta’s roster and exactly three hits - one by Matt Olson and two by Ozzie Albies.

• Brown went just four innings and 46 pitches in his first start of the season last week, so it’s possible the Braves are able to get him out of the game early and get into the soft underbelly of the Chicago bullpen.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Reynaldo López and Aaron Bummer are both well rested, with nine days of rest combined.

Used recently:

• Tyler Kinley and Robert Suarez both pitched yesterday, but could likely come back to close out a win today.

Potential limitations:

• Feels very unlikely that Atlanta brings back either Dylan Lee or Raisel Iglesias for a third straight day, but they’ve done it before with Iglesias (in 2024).

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves can make it work if the game’s close, but they’d love some early runs and a long outing out of Chris Sale.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Daniel Palencia and lefty Hoby Milner are well rested and likely to get soe action today, as is middle reliever Ethan Roberts.

Used recently

• Phil Maton threw only 17 pitches last night and could come back again, but with how poorly it went for him in the 8th, do the Cubs want him to?

Potential limitations

• Honestly, it feels like Chicago is in a pretty good spot here. Shota Imanaga going deep last night didn’t hurt things at all.

Quick takeaway:

• The Cubs have the pieces they need to secure a win, provided the offense can hang some runs on Chris Sale.

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What to Watch Today

• What kind of length can the Cubs get out of Ben Brown? If it’s close and/or tied, will Chicago go to leverage arms to try and avoid a sweep or to the depth arms in the pen to not burn out the backend?

• On the off chance that Chris Sale does NOT go deep today, do the Braves feel comfortable giving meaningful innings to López and Bummer or are they forced to overuse the leverage arms?

Final Thought

Atlanta’s favored to win tonight (FanDuel), as is usual for a Chris Sale start, in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). To me, this all comes down to Ben Brown - can he keep the Atlanta offense at bay and give Chicago a chance to try and make something happen off of Sale, or will the Braves build a lead and cruise to the sweep?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.