The Scouting Report: Braves vs Cubs, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Weather: 77° and mostly sunny, wind WNW at 9 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
RF Josè Azocar
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s going to their lefty-optimized lineup here. Josè Azocar has actually been pretty decent against lefties at times in his minor league career, including an .860 OPS last year while in Triple-A.
Chicago Cubs Lineup
2B Nico Hoerner
DH Moises Ballesteros
3B Alex Bregman
LF Ian Happ
RF Seiya Suzuki
1B Michael Busch
C Carson Kelly
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
SS Dansby Swanson
Quick thoughts:
Chicago goes back to their normal catcher for this one, as well as flopping PCA and Swanson to create a perfect R-L-R alternation all the way through the lineup.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.63 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.63 ERA / 5.11 xERA / 6.87 FIP
17.3% K / 16.0% BB / 1.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 33% four-seamer, 27% curveball, 21% changeup, 12% cutter, 4% slider, 3% sinker
vs RHH: 42% sinker, 25% curveball, 12% four-seamer, 10% slider, 6% cutter, 5% changeup
Who to watch:
No Cubs hitter has ever faced JR Ritchie in the majors, and in a casual look, I’m not sure they’ve faced this version of Ritchie in the minors, either.
Opposing Starter: LHP Shota Imanaga (4-2, 2.28 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.28 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 2.80 FIP
28.3 K% / 7.0 BB% / 21.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (41%, 91.8 mph)
Splitter (36%, 83.3 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 81.6 mph)
Sinker (6%, 90.0 mph)
Curveball (2%, 74.1 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam/sweeper mix that ramps up splitter usage when ahead, four-seamer and sinker when behind, and leans on the sweeper/splitter with two strikes.
vs RHH: Mostly two-pitch FB/splitter mix with more splitters when ahead/two strikes, sinkers when behind, and the occasional curveball as an early strike stealer.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Watch for Ozzie Albies today - he’s only had nine at-bats off of Imanaga, but he has five hits (including two homers) in those nine.
Shota made two starts against the Braves last year and was remarkably consistent, going six innings with three runs allowed on five hits in each. The Wrigley Field start was a win for the Cubs, while Atlanta took the rematch in Truist Park the next week.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Robert Suarez had last night off, so if manager Walt Weiss doesn’t want to use Raisel Iglesias for the 9th (it’d be his third appearance in four days), he’d be the logical candidate for a save situation for Atlanta.
Used recently:
Dylan Lee threw just 12 pitches last night and should be available to come back for another leverage inning today.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes was the team’s longman last night, covering three innings behind Grant Holmes and is likely down for the rest of the series.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the pieces needed to secure a close win, if it comes to that, with virtually everyone available if needed.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Closer Daniel Palencia and setup man Phil Maton are both fresh and available tonight.
Used recently
Setup man (and old friend) Jacob Webb and middle relief arm Trent Thornton can both come back today, if needed.
Potential limitations
Ryan Rolison, one of only two lefties in this Chicago pen, is likely down today after throwing 26 pitches last night.
Quick takeaway:
The Cubs have most of the pieces needed to secure a win, but it could get dicey if they’re trying to keep Dominic Smith on the bench and have only one lefty reliever to work with.
What to Watch Today
This feels like the potential ‘rookie blow-up’ game for JR Ritchie - he’s been walking a tightrope of letting guys get on base and then getting out of it with groundballs, but the Cubs are the best team at walking in MLB and have a lot of speedy guys that can beat out those groundballs, too. I’m not saying he will have a blow-up today, but if he does, you can see why.
The key to getting to Shota Imanaga is the first inning. Of the ten earned runs he’s allowed this season, seven are in the first frame, where opposing hitters have a line of .281/.333/.531, and half of his four homers allowed have come in the first.
Final Thought
Atlanta is an underdog on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-ish scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). To me, this all comes down to JR Ritchie - can he avoid the free passes (or prevent Chicago from cashing them in) enough where Atlanta can (hopefully) hold on to a first-inning lead they establish off of Imanaga?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.