The Scouting Report: Braves vs Diamondbacks, Game 1
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 9:40 PM ET
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The roof is OPEN; 83° and partially cloudy with 10 mph wind
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
This is the fourth time they’ve used this specific lineup and batting order in the first seven games of the season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2B Ketel Marte (S)
DH Corbin Carroll (L)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)
CF Alek Thomas (L)
3B Nolan Arenado (R)
1B Carlos Santana (S)
LF Jordan Lawlar (R)
RF Jorge Barrosa (L)
Quick thoughts:
That’s an intimidating top four that rapidly falls off. Getting through the first inning will be crucial for López.
The only two Diamondbacks that have seen him more than twice are both veterans; backup catcher James McCann is hitting .438 in 16 ABs and first baseman Carlos Santana is hitting .150 in 20 ABs.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Reynaldo López (0-0, 1.50 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2024):
1.99 ERA / 3.91 xERA / 2.92 FIP
27.3 K% / 7.7 BB% / 1.8% HR
Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 95.5 mph)
vs RHH: 56% 4S, 42% slider, 2% curveball, 1% changeup
vs LHH: 55% 4S, 20% slider, 19% curveball, 7% changeup
What to watch:
Lopez’s velo appeared to be fine last Saturday, as he averaged 94.4 mph and touched 97 on multiple occasions. His pitch mix also wasn’t notably different in his first start of the year - a bit less fastball and a bit more slider to lefties, but otherwise he was essentially the same starter as when he was in the rotation in 2024.
Opposing Starter: Ryne Nelson (0-0, 7.71 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
3.39 ERA / 3.93 xERA / 3.73 FIP
21.3% K / 6.6% BB / 2.7% HR
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (95.7 mph, 62% usage)
Pitch 2 = slider (86.6 mph, 14% usage)
Pitch 3 = curveball (80.0 mph, 11% usage)
Pitch 4 = cutter (91 mph, 10% usage)
Pitch 5 = changeup (87 mph, 3% usage)
How He Attacks Hitters
Throwing from a high slot (53°), Nelson bases everything off of his mid-90s four-seamer with exceptional shape (19.2 inches IVB). He’s throwing it in the middle and top of the zone for whiffs. The breaking balls get scattered in early in the at-bats, but once he gets to two strikes, it’s a fastball-heavy attack that comes right at hitters.
Vs RHH: fastball heavy
61% four-seamer, 23% slider, 8% of both curveballs and cutters, <1% changeup
vs LHH: fastball heavy
63% four-seamer, 15% curveball, 12% cutter, 6% changeup, 4% slider
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Sit fastball. He’s going to throw enough other pitches where you can’t completely ignore them, but this will be a test of power vs power - can you catch up to a very good (110 Stuff+) heater?
Try not to chase. Both the slider and the curveball had in-zone rates of less than 41% last year. Make him give you a strike to hit - odds are it’ll be a four-seamer or a cutter when he does.
I’d rather be a righty today than a lefty. Not only is Nelson more streamlined against righties than lefties, but four-seam/slider is a pretty common pairing so it’s not even that unusual except for the outlier shape.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Osvaldo Bido is probably the long man tonight, and both Joel Payamps and Aaron Bummer are the most rested quasi-leverage arms the Braves have. Tyler Kinley (who hasn’t pitched since Friday and fell off my chart, for some reason) is likely the setup man tonight.
Used recently:
The backend trio of Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, and Dylan Lee all pitched last night, but they’re potentially all available if it’s close.
Potential limitations:
Clearly, Martín Pérez/José Suarez are down, but that should be the only definitive unavailable arms. Would be nice to stay away from Iglesias if possible, though, given his 3-day usage count.
Quick takeaway:
If it’s a save situation, Walt Weiss has multiple ways he can run this, as virtually the entire leverage contingent of the pen is either available or can be used for a shorter outing.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel are probably the first men out of the pen tonight. Juan Morillo, despite pitching last night, can come back for another.
Used recently:
Close Paul Sewald is likely available, although I’m sure Torey Lovullo would love to give him one more day after a back-to-back earlier this week. Jonathan Loaisiga can be used on a back-to-back tonight, as well, although he’ll probably need two days after, unless it’s a short outing. Jose Ross has had two days off, so he’s likely up and available.
Potential limitations:
Taylor Clarke and Andrew Hoffman are likely down based on pitch count.
Quick takeaway:
This is a bullpen with no lefties at all, which is an…interesting way to build a relief corps.
What to Watch Today
Can the Braves figure out Nelson’s fastball?
If they do, is he comfortable leaning on his breaking balls late in counts, or will he struggle to put guys away if they can take away the heater?
Several Braves have taken closer Paul Sewald deep, including Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley (but not Ronald Acuña Jr., sadly). If they’re losing late, can the Braves find more 9th-inning magic like they did on Saturday?
Final Thought
Braves are favored in this one for a reason, and I like Atlanta’s chances against someone who is going to be in the zone as often as Nelson.