The Scouting Report: Braves vs Diamondbacks, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
I’m starting to realize that Ronald at DH is more than just load management, given how often it’s happening.
Arizona Diamondbacks Lineup
SS Geraldo Perdomo
RF Corbin Carroll
C Gabriel Moreno
2B Ketel Marte
3B Nolan Arenado
1B Ildemaro Vargas
CF Tim Tawa
DH Tyler Locklear
LF Ryan Waldschmidt
Quick thoughts:
Fun fact: Arizona has used six different centerfielders this season, with two of them on the injured list (Jordan Lawlar and Tommy Troy) and a third one (Alek Thomas) now playing for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (12-7, 2.20)
Quick snapshot:
2.20 ERA / 3.11 xERA / 2.40 FIP
30.6% K / 5.7% BB / 24.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 38% slider, 33% sinker, 28% four-seamer, 1% changeup
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 40% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker
What to watch:
Sale’s defining statistic: Arizona cannot escape him simply by loading the lineup with righties. Right-handed hitters have managed only a .209/.270/.292 line against Sale, with 112 strikeouts in 370 plate appearances. That is actually worse than the .284 wOBA he has allowed to lefties.
The four-seamer/slider separation remains the entire nightmare. Sale is using the four-seamer 40.8% of the time at 96.1 mph and the slider 39.4% at 79.5 mph. That gives hitters nearly 17 mph of velocity separation, with the two pitches moving in opposite directions from his low release point. Falling behind allows him to use the fastball in the zone before expanding with the slider.
Sale is entering this matchup in even better form than his 2.2020 ERA suggests. Since the break, opponents are hitting .161/.198/.218 against him, and he has 34 strikeouts against three walks in 25 innings. Even the third-time-through penalty hasn’t materialized: Sale has 40 strikeouts against four walks with a .271 wOBA allowed on trip No. 3. Atlanta should expect real length if his pitch count stays manageable.
Who to watch:
Catcher James McCann has two homers and five RBI off of Sale…but in 42 career at-bats, where he’s batting .238 overall. Nolan Arenado’s two homers come in just six at-bats, however, representing both of the third baseman’s career hits off of Sale.
Opposing Starter: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (6-1, 3.36 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.36 ERA / 3.63 xERA / 4.01 FIP
15.2 K% / 6.7 BB% / 8.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (25%, 93.2 mph)
Sinker (19%, 93.1 mph)
Changeup (15%, 87.1 mph)
Curveball (15%, 82.2 mph)
Sweeper (13%, 84.3 mph)
Cutter (12%, 90.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A well-rounded kitchen sink mix, one that dramatically cuts cutter and sinker use when ahead and with two strikes in favor of four-seam fastballs.
vs RHH: A sinker/sweeper-based package with pretty standard adjustments - ramping up breaking ball usage when ahead and with two strikes, while cutting them for sinkers and cutters when behind.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Pfaadt: Lean into the left-handed bats and force him through the order three times. Lefties have produced a .260/.305/.420 line against him, compared with .222/.296/.313 by righties, and have accounted for seven of the eight homers he has allowed. The third trip is where the larger opening appears: opponents jump from a .197 wOBA the first time through to .299 the second and .351 the third. He has struck out only six of 58 third-trip batters.
Pfaadt’s resurgence is legitimate, but his current run prevention is probably too good to continue. Since returning from the minors, he has simplified his delivery, eliminated the over-the-head windup and stayed on the first-base side of the rubber. That has improved his consistency and tunneling. He owns a 1.13 second-half ERA and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past three starts.
Small-sample shenanigan to watch: Pfaadt has only 13 strikeouts in 32 post-break innings and has allowed zero homers. A 3.7 K/9 and 0.0 HR/9 generally won’t support a 1.13 ERA indefinitely. His full-season 3.65 xERA is close to his 3.36 ERA, so the reinvention isn’t entirely smoke and mirrors; the extreme post-break results are the questionable part.
The Braves should hunt the sinker and changeup, not assume Pfaadt’s four-seamer is the vulnerable pitch. His six-pitch arsenal is unusually balanced, but the four-seamer has held hitters to a .205 average and .284 slugging percentage. The curveball and sweeper are his best swing-and-miss pitches, with whiff rates of 32.9% and 28.6%, so Atlanta’s best damage opportunity should come when a sinker or changeup leaks into the hitting zone.
Braves to watch: Drake Baldwin is a hilariously dominant 5-for-8 off of Pfaadt with a homer and two RBI, while Austin Riley is 4-for-10, Mike Yastrzemski is 5-for-9, and Mauricio Dubón is 3-for-6. Ha-Seong Kim didn’t make today’s lineup, but he’s hitting .308 across 13 ABs with a homer and two RBI off of Pfaadt.
The counterpoint here is that Matt Olson’s just 2-for-11 off of Pfaadt and Ozzie Albies is 1-for-12.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Holy bullpen reset, Batman. Love a good off day.
Potential limitations:
That being said, I could see the argument to try and get Raisel Iglesias another day off, given that he’s at 46 pitches in the past five days and has pitched in three of the last four games.
Quick takeaway:
Wouldn’t mind a blowout here to rest the leverage arms one more day.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Unless the team’s being careful with Gerardo Carrillo after his 31 pitches on Wednesday, the full bullpen should be available for Arizona.
Quick takeaway:
Arizona’s bullpen is pretty rested…but that doesn’t mean they’re good and Atlanta definitely has the advantage here.
Final Thought
Braves are an easy favorite on the moneyline (-184 to Arizona’s +170), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of just eight runs. Pfaadt is pitching with confidence and suppressing hard contact, but he isn’t missing enough bats to make this stretch feel invulnerable. If Atlanta’s lefties avoid expanding against the breaking balls and get him into a third matchup, that is where the statistical advantage swings sharply toward the Braves…plus, y’know, the whole “Chris Sale on the mound” thing.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.