The Scouting Report: Braves vs Diamondbacks, Game 3
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
TV: Fox
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The roof is OPEN; 87° and mostly clear with 6 mph wind
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
This is the standard lineup vs RHP and the most frequently-used lineup combination of the season, appearing in its fifth contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
RF Corbin Carroll (L)
2B Ketel Marte (S)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)
DH Adrian Del Castillo (L)
3B Nolan Arenado (R)
1B Jose Fernandez(R)
CF Alek Thomas (L)
LF Jorge Barrosa (S)
Quick thoughts:
Del Castillo, a catcher, was just activated off the IL (taking Jordan Lawlar’s roster spot) and is making his season debut. The slumping Carlos Santana, who has just one hit and a .207 OPS in 23 plate appearances on the season, is out of the lineup at first base in favor of youngster Jose Fernandez.
Not a ton of experience for Arizona against Bryce Elder here. Nolan Arenado has the most ABs, with 11, but is also hitting just .182 off the sinkerballer. Corbin Carroll’s 2-5, Geraldo Pérdomo’s 2-3, and Alek Thomas is 2-4. No one on the Arizona roster has ever taken Elder deep.
I really hope I didn’t just jinx this.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Bryce Elder (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
5.30 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 4.55 FIP
19.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 3.5% HR
Pitch mix (avg 4S FB velo = 91.8 mph)
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 37% slider, 6% changeup, 3% 4S FB
vs LHH: 33% slider, 30% sinker, 22% 4S FB, 15% changeup
What’s different so far this year?
Elder’s new cutter. The righty threw it exclusively to lefties last week, which is suboptimal usage, but something he vowed to improve. Is this the day?
What to watch:
It’s all about locations for Elder. He had a 47.6% whiff rate when he took his stuff out of the zone, but only a 10.6% whiff over the plate. His slider, specifically, is the most egregious example of this - 63.1% out of the zone but only 13% in it (and that’s almost entirely derived from landing it in the bottom third of the zone - it gets a whiff rate of just 7% in the middle or upper third).
As I mentioned above, does he expand his cutter usage to attack righties?
Opposing Starter: Michael Soroka (1-0, 0.00)
Quick snapshot (2025):
4.52 ERA / 3.53 xERA / 4.23 FIP
25.1 K% / 7.7 BB% / 3.2% HR
The arsenal (2025)
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (93.6 mph, 45% usage)
Pitch 2 = slurve (80.4 mph, 35% usage)
Pitch 3 = changeup (84.3 mph, 10% usage)
Pitch 4 = sinker (93.2 mph, 10% usage)
What’s different so far this year?
Soroka, like Elder, has added a cutter, primarily using it against righties.
How He Attacks Hitters
Soroka struck out ten last time out thanks to nine whiffs on the slurve and a ton of called strikes on both it (ten) and the four-seam fastball (seven). Are the Braves prepared to fire off ‘A’ swings in the zone?
vs RHH: Balanced when ahead, power when behind
42% four-seamer, 36% slurve, 20% sinker, 1% changeup
vs LHH: Fast, then slow
48% four-seamer, 34% slurve, 17% change, 1% sinker
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
I don’t like being on the wrong side of a revenge game. It’s not the first time that Soroka has faced the Braves - he went four innings with two runs on four hits against Atlanta last May as a member of the Nationals - but this feels like a newer, more improved version. If they struggle tonight, it’s as good a reason as any.
Soroka’s new cutter has been an early-to-mid-AB usage point for him so far - last time out, he threw it to righties once on 0-0, but the rest were 1-1 and 2-0, while the lone one thrown to a lefty was on 0-1.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Aaron Bummer and Joel Payamps are probably the first out the bullpen doors tonight. If Martín Pérez is the starter for Sunday, then Jose Suarez should be available as well.
Used recently:
The three high-leverage arms all pitched last night, but none of the usage was too extreme to preclude them from coming back tonight if needed. That being said, the 3-day usage likely means that the Braves would like to stay away from Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee if possible.
Potential limitations:
Osvaldo Bido is the only obviously unavailable arm, but Atlanta should have a long man available in either Suarez or Pérez, so it’s not a problem.
Quick takeaway:
Walt Weiss should have almost any lever he wants to secure a win tonight.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of the pen got the night off last night, given that Eduardo Rodriguez went seven innings, so there’s a whole contingent of the pen that is on two days’ rest.
Used recently:
After two games in three days, I’m sure Torey Lovullo would like to stay away from Juan Morillo.
Potential limitations:
Closer Paul Sewald and longman Andrew Hoffman are the only real questions tonight, Hoffman owing to his five-day usage and Sewald because he’s historically been very bad against Atlanta, as we saw last night.
What to Watch Today
How does Arizona, in the macro sense, and Paul Sewald specifically, rebound from a gut-wrenching loss last night?
Does a leveled-up Michael Soroka exact revenge on the Braves for trading him after the 2023 season?
Can Bryce Elder keep Arizona’s speedy outfielders off the barrel and prevent extra-base hits?
Final Thought
Another national broadcast, although at least we have a familiar voice on the call with Brandon Gaudin doing play-by-play.