The Scouting Report: Braves vs Diamondbacks, Game 2
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 9:45 PM ET
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
TV: Apple TV+
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The roof is OPEN; 84° and clear with 7 mph wind
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.(R)
DH Drake Baldwin (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Eli White (R)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
C Jonah Heim (S)
Quick thoughts:
It’s mostly the usual LHP lineup for the Braves, with Eli White taking over for Mike Yastrzemski in left field and Drake Baldwin working as the DH. The only difference here is Michael Harris II and Jonah Heim swap spots, with the hitless backup catcher dropping to the #9 spot and Harris moving up one slot.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2B Ketel Marte (S)
RF Corbin Carroll (L)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
DH Gabriel Moreno (R)
3B Nolan Arenado (R)
CF Alek Thomas (L)
C James McCann (R)
1B Carlos Santana (S)
LF Tim Tawa (R)
Quick thoughts:
Jordan Lawlar left last night’s game after being hit on the hand/wrist by a pitch and is out of the lineup tonight, but no word on whether it’s a planned absence or related to the HBP.
UPDATE: It’s a fractured wrist, per manager Torey Lovullo, and he’ll miss six or eight weeks. The team will replace Lawlar on the active roster with catcher Adrian Del Castillo, who is currently on the injured list but ready to be activated. No word on if that’ll get done prior to tonight’s game.
No real track record against Grant Holmes for Arizona’s hitters here - Gabriel Moreno is 2-5, while Alek Thomas is 2-4 and Nolan Arenado is 1-5.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Grant Holmes (0-1, 5.40 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
3.99 ERA / 4.55 xERA / 3.20 FIP
25.0 K% / 11.0 BB% / 3.3% HR
Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 95.5 mph)
vs RHH: 45% slider, 35% four-seam, 13% cutter, 7% curveball, <1% kick-change
vs LHH: 31% four-seam, 26% slider, 24% curveball, 18% cutter, 2% kick-change
What to watch:
Holmes was in the exact same velocity range for his first start of 2026 as he was in 2025 before going down with a UCL injury/flexor strain. The only thing different with his arsenal so far this year is he’s added a sinker and has (finally) started throwing the kick change a bit more, something I’ve been asking for since he added it in spring training last year.
Opposing Starter: Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
5.02 ERA / 4.51 xERA / 4.57 FIP
20.6% K / 8.6% BB / 3.6% HR
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (92.0 mph, 47% usage)
Pitch 2 = changeup (85.9 mph, 21% usage)
Pitch 3 = cutter (89.2 mph, 16% usage)
Pitch 4 = sinker (91.5 mph, 9% usage)
Pitch 5 = curveball (79.4 mph, 5% usage)
Pitch 6 = slider (84.6 mph, 4% usage)
How He Attacks Hitters
I’m going to be honest - this is a weird profile. Fastball dominant without much velocity (or success) on that fastball, backed by a changeup, then more fastball variants, and then finally some breaking balls at the tail end there.
(Note: He threw 28% changeup/27% cutter/23% four-seamer in his first start this year - was that an intentional utilization change, or just how that game unfolded?)
Vs RHH: reliant on speed differences
48% four-seamer, 25% changeup, 19% cutter, 3% each of sinker and curveball, 2% slider
vs LHH: reliant on movement
42% four-seamer, 29% sinker, 11% slider, 10% curveball, 5% changeup, 3% cutter
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
With an average spread of just six mph between his four-seamer and his changeup (the ‘target’ is more like 8 mph to 10 mph), Atlanta righties can likely sit fastball and adjust to both the changeup and cutter.
Lefties should instead watch specific areas of the strike zone. ERod likes to throw the heater over the plate and then run the sinker off to the corner, aiming to land the curveball middle-down and the slider on the opposite corner from the sinker.
Several Braves have seen Eduardo Rodriguez a half-dozen times or more, but no real success to speak of outside of Ronald Acuña Jr. (2-6) and Kyle Farmer (4-7, HR).
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Aaron Bummer might get two innings, at this rate - he hasn’t pitched since Monday, the only Braves reliever with this much rest. Robert Suarez and Joel Payamps are my other guesses for the leverage arms tonight.
Used recently:
With last night off, there’s no reason to assume that either Raisel Iglesias or Dylan Lee have any restrictions on them entering this one. While Tyler Kinley pitched last night, he’s likely available if needed, as it was only ten pitches.
Potential limitations:
Neither Osvaldo Bido or José Suarez are likely available tonight, so Aaron Bummer might be the long man and if it’s another blowout (either way, although we obviously want the Braves to be the one doing the blowing out), look for Kyle Farmer to get an inning on the mound.
Quick takeaway:
The bullpen situation is as good as can reasonably be expected more than halfway through a stretch of thirteen games in thirteen days.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Last night’s blowout really taxed the back end of the pen, but it was mostly thrown on long man Joe Ross. Most of the marquee names were able to get a night off and should be available tonight.
UPDATE: Pregame reports are that Joe Ross’s locker has been vacated and there’s one made for Taylor Rashi, who isn’t a lefty but is a fresh arm.
Used recently:
Despite throwing 22 pitches last night, Kevin Ginkel is likely available if needed…but with five arms all having one day of rest (and closer Paul Sewald having two), he probably won’t be called on in this one.
Potential limitations:
Last night’s blowout really taxed the back end of the pen, with Joe Ross definitely down for a few days and Andrew Hoffman likely joining him on the bench in this one.
What to Watch Today
How does Arizona rebound from getting punched in the mouth last night?
If this one’s a blowout in either direction, who pitches bulk innings for either team?
Does Drake Baldwin score another run tonight? Last night, he officially tied Hank Aaron (1957) and Boston Beaneaters legend Jimmy Collins (1900) as the franchise’s only players since 1900 to score a run in each of the season’s first seven games.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored in this one for a reason, and you can pick any explanation from the several in this scouting report.
Now if only Braves Country had a convenient way to watch it.
Osvaldo Bido is Way Better than i expected.
Don't recall ever hearing of him.
Jonah Heim doesn't resemble hidself as a young Oriole