The Scouting Report: Braves vs Diamondbacks, Game 4
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: Chase Field, Arizona
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: N/A; the Chase Field roof is CLOSED this afternoon
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
DH Ronald Acuña Jr (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
3B Mauricio Dubón (R)
RF Eli White (R)
SS Jorge Mateo (R)
Quick thoughts:
It’s the first real ‘load management lineup for Atlanta, with Ronald getting a day at DH and Jorge Mateo checking in at shortstop while Mauricio Dubón gives the struggling Austin Riley a day off.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Braves lineup that doesn’t worry about having a three lefty lane or a three righty lane, but here you go - four consecutive lefties towards the top and three consecutive righties to close it out.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2B Ketel Marte (S)
RF Corbin Carroll (L)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
3B Nolan Arenado (R)
DH Jose Fernandez (R)
1B Carlos Santana (S)
LF Tim Tawa (R)
C James McCann (R)
CF Jorge Barrosa (S)
Quick thoughts:
I was curious what their lefty lineup would look like after losing Jordan Lawlar, who historically hit lefties well in the minors.
Among the regulars who are getting the day off (barring a pinch-hit or defensive appearance later) are catcher Gabriel Moreno and centerfielder Alek Thomas.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Martín Pérez (0-0, 0.00)
Quick snapshot (2025):
3.54 ERA / 5.36 xERA / 4.24 FIP
19.3 K% / 9.6 BB% / 2.6% HR rate
Pitch mix (2025)
vs RHH: 33% cutter, 30% changeup, 28% sinker, 6% curveball, 3% four-seamer
vs LHH: 40% sinker, 25% changeup, 15% each of cutter & curveball, 5% four-seamer
What’s different so far this year?
In his only outing of the year, he didn’t throw the four-seamer at all.
What to watch:
It’s all about the velocity differences and locations here - the sinker and changeup have very similar movement profiles, with less than half an inch of IVB between the two and just over one inch of horizontal movement difference on average. Keeping hitters guessing at which one is on the black (and not over the heart of the plate) will be key here.
Opposing Starter: Brandon Pfaadt
Quick snapshot (2025):
5.25 ERA / 5.30 xERA / 4.22 FIP
19.2 K% / 4.8 BB% / 3.4 HR%
The arsenal (2025):
Pitch 1 = sinker (93.1 mph, 23.5% usage)
Pitch 2 = four-seamer (93.6 mph, 23.4% usage)
Pitch 3 = sweeper (84.7 mph, 19% usage)
Pitch 4 = changeup (87.3 mph, 16% usage)
Pitch 5 = curveball (82 mph, 10% usage)
Pitch 6 = cutter (89.8 mph, 9% usage)
What’s different so far this year?
Same six pitches so far in his first start of the year, but he dramatically minimized his four-seam usage and replaced it with more cutters, as well as going to his curveball as the 2nd-most pitch and primary breaking ball over the sweeper.
How He Attacks Hitters
In last year’s game plans, Pfaadt was just throwing stuff against the wall against lefties in an attempt to get them out. He at least had a defined game plan against right-handers: sweepers away, sinkers in, and four-seam fastballs up.
In his first start this year, Pfaadt made a concentrated effort to throw curveballs early in at-bats to lefties, looking for whiffs. Something to watch for today.
Vs RHH: Pick a side of the plate
(2025): 33% sinker, 30% sweeper, 19% four-seamer, 6% each of changeup & cutter, 5% curveball
Vs LHH: Vary the velo and just kitchen sink it
(2025): 27% four-seamer, 23% changeup, 15% sinker, 14% curveball, 11% cutter, 9% sweeper
Sequencing (2025):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Several Braves have seen Pfaadt well, with Jonah Heim (.400) having homered and Mike Yastrzemski (.571), Drake Baldwin (.600), and Austin Riley (.400) all having good success in their five or more career ABs.
Conversely, Ozzie Albies is just 1-10, Michael Harris II is 1-7, and Matt Olson is only 2-9 against Pfaadt.
Last season, the team’s worst qualified hitter against sweepers was Harris (-3 Run Value, -2.3 Run Value per 100 pitches), while the best were Acuña (+5 RV, +4.0 RV/100) and Austin Riley (+3 RV, +1.6 RV/100).
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Virtually everyone, including longman José Suarez
Used recently:
Tyler Kinley’s seven pitches last night won’t preclude him coming back today if they think it’s a good matchup, but why? Just about everyone else is available.
Potential limitations:
Osvaldo Bido likely needs one more day before he’s back in the mix, but other than him, the pen is good to go.
Quick takeaway:
It’s frankly amazing that the team is entering its tenth straight game with a bullpen as fresh as it is. Credit to the starters for going deep into their outings.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Andrew Hoffman and Kevin Ginkel, who each got two days off after 20+ pitches in Thursday’s series opener, should be good to go today. Ryan Thompson, who has thrown two pitches in the last week, is likely the first man out.
Used recently:
Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga are likely both available for a back-to-back, given that they didn’t throw that much last night.
Potential limitations:
In a perfect world, Juan Morillo isn’t asked to pitch a third game in three days.
It’d almost be malpractice to throw closer Paul Sewald today, but as he’s the closer, managers typically treat them differently.
Quick takeaway:
Who is closing today if Arizona has a lead?
Have fun figuring this one out, Torey Lovullo.
What to Watch This Afternoon
Maybe it’s me, but this feels like a Ronald Acuña game.
Good speed in the lineup today, which helps mitigate some of the groundball tendencies of Brandon Pfaadt.
If Atlanta can get to the late game with a lead, Walt Weiss has all his levers available to secure a win.
Final Thought
The Braves are primed to win the series, provided that the offense can get off its skid and Martín Pérez doesn’t put them into too deep a hole.
I hope like heck I'm wrong, but feels to me like one of those Bobby Cox "B team" lineups on a Sunday. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and the Braves win to take the series, but neither Eli nor Mateo inspires a whole lot of offensive confidence. Of course, Riley hasn't either, for that matter.