The Scouting Report: Braves vs Dodgers, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 10:10 PM ET

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 60° and partly sunny, wind SSW at 9 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Michael Harris II
CF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a second straight start for Jarvis at shortstop, as well as more left field time for Harris.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup

DH Shohei Ohtani
C Will Smith
1B Freddie Freeman
CF Andy Pages
LF Teoscar Hernandez
RF Kyle Tucker
SS Miguel Rojas
3B Max Muncy
2B Santiago Espinal

Quick thoughts:

• Rojas and Espinal check in against the lefty Sale, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hye-seong Kim check in for someone late for a pinch-hit opportunity and defense.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (6-1, 2.14 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.14 ERA / 2.85 xERA / 3.50 FIP

• 29.9% K / 7.3% BB / 22.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% slider, 31% sinker, 26% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 40% slider, 16%changeup, <1% sinker

What to watch:

• Freddie Freeman is 3-9 with a homer off of Sale in their respective careers, while Teoscar Hernández is hitting .222 with a homer off of Sale in 18 career ABs.

Opposing Starter: RHP Emmet Sheehan (2-1, 5.23 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.23 ERA / 4.32 xERA / 4.30 FIP

• 27.3 K% / 6.8 BB% / 20.5% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (40%, 94.1 mph)

• Slider (33%, 86.9 mph)

• Changeup (17%, 85.0 mph)

• Curveball (10%, 75.7 mph)

How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: FB-dominant attack; curveball use mostly early, changeup and slider most prominent when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: Three-pitch mix that’s driven by the slider, with four-seamers when behind and changeups when ahead.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Not a ton of experience on Atlanta’s roster against Sheehan, but some of the small sample sizes are still promising. Ozzie Albies is a perfect 2-2 off of Sheehan, while Mauricio Dubón is just 1-5 but that lone hit is a home run.

  • Flip side is that all of that production came in 2023. Albies hasn’t faced him since then, while Dubón went 0-2 off him last season as a member of the Astros.

• Sheehan’s struggled to land his fastball in the zone this season, with just a 42.9% zone rate, although he’s also gotten plenty of chase and whiff on it. Hitters don’t normally chase the curveball (20.7%), but he’s pretty good at landing it in the zone and hitters normally aren’t swinging at it.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The high-leverage options have all had two days off since they last pitched.

Used recently/Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes threw 47 pitches on Wednesday and won’t be available, even with the benefit of yesterday’s off day. Other than that, the Braves are in a good place here.

Quick takeaway:

• (Almost) all hands on deck vs LA.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Long man/World Series hero Will Klein has had plenty of time off and can cover multiple innings if it’s a blowout tonight.

Used recently/potential limitations

• The Dodgers went with a bullpen game on Wednesday, but after a day off, most everyone should be available.

Quick takeaway:

• All hands on deck against Atlanta.

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What to Watch Today

• I’m watching how lefties do against Sheehan tonight - he’s had pretty neutral platoon splits in his career, but the small sample size that is 2026 shows he’s having trouble.

• Chris Sale versus Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman? Cinema.

Final Thought

Atlanta’s a slight underdog on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-ish scoring game, but it’s one that the Braves need to win given that they’re throwing their ace in Chris Sale. Can Sheehan keep Braves hitters off his fastball? That feels like the difference in this one

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.