It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: 84° and only intermittent clouds
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Second straight start for Sean Murphy, so this might be the start of a run for the slugging catcher.
Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup
DH Shohei Ohtani
1B Freddie Freeman
SS Mookie Betts
3B Max Muncy
2B Tommy Edman
RF Kyle Tucker
CF Alek Thomas
LF Teoscar Hernandez
C Hunter Feduccia
Quick thoughts:
LA’s restored Teoscar Hernandez to the lineup, even though Alex Call’s one of the few Dodgers to have both seen and hit AJ Smith-Shawver. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 6.23)
Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):
1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP
28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 48% four-seamer, 31% splitter, 15% curveball, 2% sinker, 1% slider
vs RHH: 36% splitter, 33% four-seamer, 17% sinker, 10% slider, 3% curveball
What to watch:
AJSS’s defining statistic: Watch the first-pitch strikes. He has begun only 50% of his 40 MLB plate appearances with a strike, contributing to five walks against seven strikeouts. His overall whiff rate has fallen from 27.1% in 2025 to 21.4%. Against a Dodgers lineup capable of taking borderline pitches, falling behind will force him away from his best weapon.
The good news hidden inside his Minnesota line was the splitter. AJSS threw it 31 times, generated 11 whiffs and used it for all three of his strikeouts. Conversely, Minnesota missed none of his 20 four-seamers. Across both MLB outings, the 83-mph splitter owns a 42.9% whiff rate and .254 xwOBA; his 96.4-mph four-seamer has generated a microscopic 3.7% whiff rate. His velocity has returned from surgery. The question is whether the fastball plays well enough to support the splitter.
He is physically built up for more length; execution has prevented it. AJSS threw exactly 95 pitches in each of his final two Gwinnett starts, but Atlanta has removed him after 69 and 75 pitches in the majors. Across those two starts, he allowed five runs while recording only two fifth-inning outs. If he’s inefficient today, a fifth-inning walk or prolonged plate appearance could trigger another quick hook.
Don’t panic about LA’s lefties. AJSS has held the 24 left-handed hitters he has faced to a .400 OPS, compared with 1.000 against 16 righties. Those samples are far too small to call a real reverse split, but the splitter provides a legitimate route against the Dodgers’ left-handed core. The concern is walking them, not necessarily giving up immediate damage.
Who to watch:
There are only two players on LA’s roster that have ever faced Smith-Shawver
AJSS’s won the matchup: Ben Rortvedt (0-2)
AJSS’s gotta be better: Alex Call (2-5, double, triple)
Opposing Starter: RHP Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.42 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.42 ERA / 4.24 xERA / 4.79 FIP
23.1 K% / 9.3 BB% / 13.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (42%, 97.9 mph)
Splitter (29%, 90.2 mph)
Slider (22%, 86.6 mph)
Forkball (8%, 85.3 mph)
Atlanta’s path against Roki Sasaki
Win the count and force Sasaki toward his four-seamer. When hitters are ahead, Sasaki throws his four-seamer 57.7% of the time to lefties and 51.7% to righties. When Sasaki gets ahead, his splitter usage jumps to 52.1% against lefties and 43.5% against righties. That distinction is enormous: The four-seamer has allowed a .319 average, .593 slugging percentage and .407 xwOBA, while the splitter has produced a 35.4% whiff rate and .253 xwOBA. Atlanta’s clearest path is preventing Sasaki from replacing his most hittable pitch with his best one.
Sasaki’s post-break resurgence appears legitimate, but it hasn’t required a repertoire overhaul. He has a 2.31 ERA and .666 opponent OPS across six second-half starts after posting a 5.33 ERA and .825 OPS before the break. Over that stretch, he has trimmed his four-seam usage from 41.9% to 38.7% while increasing the splitter from 34.4% to 37.2%. His slider usage has remained near 22%, while the slower forkball has essentially disappeared.
The more important changes may be velocity, mechanics and pitch concealment. Sasaki’s four-seamer has averaged approximately 98.7 mph since the break, nearly one mph above his season average. The Dodgers also reportedly believed he had been tipping pitches and gave him a larger glove to better conceal his grip, while Sasaki adjusted his lower half. Atlanta isn’t facing a dramatically different pitcher so much as a better-disguised and slightly more splitter-heavy version of the same one.
There is a reverse-split wrinkle. Right-handed hitters have produced a .325 on-base percentage, .519 slugging percentage and .844 OPS against Sasaki, compared with a .311 OBP, .419 slugging percentage and .730 OPS by lefties. He has surrendered 11 home runs to righties in 209 plate appearances, so Acuña and Riley shouldn’t be viewed as the disadvantaged hitters in this matchup.
The second trip through the order has provided the best opportunity. Opponents have a .714 OPS and 1.08 WHIP the first time through, rising to an .845 OPS and 1.61 WHIP on the second trip. His strikeout rate barely changes; the difference has been more hits and walks. Atlanta needs to make its first look informative without allowing Sasaki to complete it in 30 pitches.
The command still gives Atlanta something to pressure. Sasaki has issued 13 walks in 35 innings since the break, including seven across 17 August innings. The pitch concealment and home-run prevention have improved, but he hasn’t suddenly become a strike-throwing machine. Patient aggression—taking the splitter below the zone without conceding hittable fastballs—is the balance Atlanta must find.
One bizarre small-sample split: Sasaki has allowed 10 of his 21 home runs in the second inning, producing a 5.73 ERA in that frame compared with a 2.05 first-inning ERA. It isn’t something Atlanta can reasonably expect to continue, but it makes the bottom half of the lineup particularly interesting during its first opportunity against him.
The Braves against Sasaki: Not a ton of experience or success here
The good: Ozzie Albies (2-3, home run), Austin Riley (1-2)
The bad: Sean Murphy (0-3), Michael Harris II (0-2), Matt Olson (0-1)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Almost entirely a FB/splitter attack, with some sliders early in the count and when behind to get back into the count.
vs RHH: The slider’s a legitimate third part of the attack here, with higher splitter usage when ahead in the count and with two strikes but sliders more frequent early in the count and when behind.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Didier Fuentes has had two days off, with Brent Suter working on three days off and Ray Kerr having not pitched since sometime last week.
Potential limitations:
The rest of the non-Fuentes leverage contingent pitched last night, as did Victor Mederos. Dylan Dodd vultured a win on only two pitches, but he was warming up early in the game so it’s possible they treat yesterday like a standard-length outing versus a short one.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces they need to take the series, if they can get a lead late, but that makes Thursday an open question.
Worry about Thursday when you get there, honestly.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Longman (and lefty) Eric Lauer is fresh, as are righty-handed setup men Edgardo Henriquez and Brock Stewart.
Potential Limitations:
Lefty Jack Dryer is likely down today, after 27 pitches last night, and leverage arms Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, and Evan Phillips would all be on a back-to-back if used today.
Quick takeaway:
Los Angeles has all the pieces they need, but any sort of leverage usage today for the Dodgers will have the missing pieces on Thursday.
Final Thought
Braves are an underdog on the moneyline: +116 to LA’s -126, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The likely hinge point is Chase Swings below the zone. Atlanta must refuse to chase Sasaki’s splitter and slider there, because pitcher’s counts allow him to replace his vulnerable four-seamer with his best secondary pitches. AJ Smith-Shawver needs the Dodgers to offer at his splitter in exactly that location. If either offense controls the bottom of the zone and forces the opposing starter back toward his four-seamer, the advantage shifts decisively toward the hitters and LA’s have been better recently than Atlanta’s.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
Concerning getting a second straight start - against a right-hander, no less - didn't you mean to describe him as our "Sloughing" catcher in lieu of "slugging" catcher? The only thing that's been slugged so far this year is his index finger. (tacky, I know. But, I just HAD to)