The Scouting Report: Braves vs Dodgers, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 75° and mostly cloudy, wind SW at 8 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
RF Eli White
C Sean Murphy
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
With a second straight lefty on the mound for Los Angeles, Sean Murphy gets his second straight start behind the plate for Atlanta, albeit it in the #8 spot today.
Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup
DH Shohei Ohtani
1B Freddie Freeman
CF Andy Pages
RF Kyle Tucker
3B Max Muncy
LF Alex Call
C Dalton Rushing
SS Hyeseong Kim
2B Alex Freeland
Quick thoughts:
With a righty on the mound for Atlanta, Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland check in to cover the middle infield for a second straight day to round out the lineup.
Will Smith gets his first off day of the series, while Teoscar Hernández has the day off in left field, being replaced by Alex Call.
Quick note: I’m aware that yesterday’s lineup for the Dodgers was incorrect, listing two shortstops and two second basemen - I attempted to automate the lineup portion of the article and didn’t configure it correctly. That’s been corrected and shouldn’t happen again. My apologies.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 2.02 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.02 ERA / 2.83 xERA / 3.19 FIP
23.1% K / 8.2% BB / 14.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 31% four-seamer, 31% slider, 18% cutter, 12% changeup, 8% sinker
vs RHH: 54% sinker, 32% slider, 8% four-seamer, 6% changeup
Who to watch:
There is some decent experience here on LA’s roster against Elder, with the trio of Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, and Andy Pages all having home runs off of Atlanta’s starter. Freddie Freeman, while not having taken Elder deep, is 4-10 off of him.
Opposing Starter: LHP Justin Wrobleski (5-0, 1.25 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
1.25 ERA / 4.22 xERA / 3.21 FIP
10.5 K% / 7.0 BB% / 3.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (51%, 93.5 mph)
Slider (34%, 85.6 mph)
Curveball (8%, 76.1 mph)
Sinker (4%, 92.6 mph)
Changeup (2%, 85.1 mph)
Cutter (1%, 90.8 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A three-pitch mix that’s pretty standard: built on the fastball, ramping up sliders when ahead and sinkers when behind
vs RHH: A mostly three-pitch mix built on the fastball, ramping up slider usage when ahead and using the curveball early in the count.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Only five Braves have even FACED Wrobleski in their respective pro careers, with Dominic Smith’s two hits and Mauricio Dubón’s one representing the only success off of the lefty on Atlanta’s roster.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
The high-leverage options are mostly well-rested and can shorten the outing for Atlanta if needed.
Used recently
Dylan Lee’s the exception here, after using 18 pitches to cover the 7th inning last night. He can likely come back today if needed, though.
Potential limitations:
Reynaldo López needed 42 pitches to get through two innings last night and because of the usage, is likely down until Tuesday’s series opener versus the Cubs.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the pieces needed to secure a close win, if it comes to that.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
LA was able to stay away from all their leverage relievers in last night’s easy Atlanta win, so they’ve now got multiple lefties available in Alex Vesia and Tanner Scott.
Used recently
Jack Dryer threw 11 pitches last night, but can likely come back as the third lefty if needed today.
Potential limitations
Edgardo Henriquez and Paul Gervase were the two bulk arms behind Blake Snell yesterday and will likely be down for today.
Quick takeaway:
LA has both the leverage arms and the lefties available for a close game, although those are the same guys in Vesia and Scott. Dryer being able to come back would be important for LA if they’re looking for additional lefty innings today.
What to Watch Today
Bryce Elder’s looking to exorcise some demons in Dodger Stadium today - his last three regular-season starts in ‘The House That Vin Scully Built’ have seen him allow eleven runs in 13.1 innings, walking ten.
I was curious what LA would do with their lineup against Elder. He’s a righty, and the standard game plan there is to load up on lefties, but since the start of 2024, righties have hit him much better (6.04 ERA, .346 wOBA) than lefties (3.93 ERA, .313 wOBA).
Given that LA did not lean into this, I’m now watching to see what righties Will Smith, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernández do today. Let’s see how Elder handles that trio.
Final Thought
Atlanta is, once again, an underdog on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-ish scoring game (O/U nine runs). Wrobleski has allowed a lot of balls in play, settling for fielding outs instead of strikeouts. If the Braves can work this new, patient approach and put LA’s defense to the test, they have a good chance of getting out of Dodger Stadium with a series win.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
The Dodgers have used 10 different pitchers in the first 2 games of the series. Most of the names aren’t that well known. Organizational pitching depth is so important to winning in today’s regular season MLB. Braves need to continue to build their depth and use it.