The Scouting Report: Braves vs Giants, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Baldwin’s back in the lineup and retakes his leadoff spot.

San Francisco Giants Lineup

2B Luis Arraez
DH Bryce Eldridge
3B Matt Chapman
1B Rafael Devers
RF Jung Hoo Lee
SS Willy Adames
LF Casey Schmitt
CF Drew Gilbert
C Daniel Susac

Quick thoughts:

• No surprises for San Francisco, as they go with their standard lineup here.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-2, 4.05)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.05 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 5.26 FIP

• 20.6% K / 10.1% BB / 10.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% each four-seamer & slider, 10% curveball, 8% each changeup & cutter, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% slider, 31% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% cutter, 2% each curveball & changeup

Who to watch:

• Only four Giants have ever seen Holmes in a game - Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman are both 0-4, while Willy Adames is 1-2 and Rafael Devers is 2-5.

Opposing Starter: RHP Adrian Houser (2-6, 5.54 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.54 ERA / 5.44 xERA / 5.18 FIP

• 15.5 K% / 8.1 BB% / 7.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (45%, 94.7 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 85.3 mph)

• Four-seamer (16%, 95.4 mph)

• Slider (12%, 88.2 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 81.5 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Five-pitch mix with increased changeup/four-seamer usage when ahead and with two strikes, more sinker usage when behind, and increased curveball usage early (and reduced usage with two strikes).

vs RHH: Sinker-dominant mix that eschews four-seamers early for sinkers, reverses that trend when he’s ahead, and increases slider/four-seamer/changeup usage with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• There is a ton of experience against Houser on Atlanta’s roster, and much of it is positive. Most notable for the Braves is Ozzie Albies hitting .375 (16 ABs) and Austin Riley hitting .471 with a homer (17 ABs).

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Atlanta projects to have almost everyone available for tonight’s series opener.

Used recently/potential limitations:

• The only question might be Anthony Molina, who needed 29 pitches to get through his appearance on Sunday afternoon.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Giants throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• San Francisco projects to have everyone available for today’s series opener.

Used recently/Potential limitations

• Based solely on pitch counts and usage, the Giants appear to be at full strength in the bullpen for the opener.

Quick takeaway:

• The Giants bullpen has struggled this season, but they have everyone available to right the ship in the series opener.

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What to Watch Today

• Adrian Houser has been much worse against lefties than righties this season, so it could potentially be a soft landing for Drake Baldwin’s return to the lineup.

  • vs RHH: 3.86 ERA, .212/.238/.343 allowed

  • vs LHH: 6.81 ERA, .335/.418/.604 allowed

• Grant Holmes has struggled this season with the second time through the order, allowing opposing hitters to put up an absurd .317/.391/.663 line. Can he figure out a Giants lineup that doesn’t have a very pronounced improvement from the 1st to 2nd times through?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8 runs). Can Atlanta’s lefties give Grant Holmes a lead, and can he hold it when the lineup turns over?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.