The Scouting Report: Braves vs Guardians, Game 1
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 77° and mostly sunny, wind NW at 4 mph
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
Quick thoughts:
This is the standard lineup vs RHP and the most frequently used personnel combination of the season, appearing in its seventh contest defensively. It’s only the second time all season that Smith has hit ahead of Harris, though; that’s an adjustment that Atlanta made on Monday versus Los Angeles.
Cleveland Guardians
CF Steven Kwan (L)
RF Chase DeLauter (L)
3B José Ramirez (S)
1B Kyle Manzardo (L)
DH Rhys Hoskins (R)
2B Juan Brito (S)
C Bo Naylor (L)
LF Angel Martínez (S)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)
Quick thoughts:
This specific lineup has combined for only nine home runs on the season. Chase DeLauter is responsible for five of those by himself, and four of them came in the season-opening series against the Seattle Mariners. It’s a good matchup for Bryce Elder is what I’m saying.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Bryce Elder (1-1, 0.00 ERA)
Quick snapshot (2025):
5.30 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 4.55 FIP
19.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 3.5% HR
Pitch mix (avg 4S FB velo = 91.8 mph)
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 37% slider, 6% changeup, 3% 4S FB
vs LHH: 33% slider, 30% sinker, 22% 4S FB, 15% changeup
What’s different so far this year?
Elder’s new cutter. The righty threw it exclusively to lefties in his first two starts, which is suboptimal usage, but something he vowed to improve.
What to watch:
It’s all about locations for Elder. He had a 47.6% whiff rate when he took his stuff out of the zone, but only a 10.6% whiff over the plate. His slider, specifically, is the most egregious example of this - 63.1% out of the zone but only 13% in it (and that’s almost entirely derived from landing it in the bottom third of the zone - it gets a whiff rate of just 7% in the middle or upper third).
Not a ton of experience here for Cleeland against the sinkerballer - Steven Kwan is 3-7, former Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is 2-5, but no one else has more than four at-bats off of Elder.
Opposing Starter: Slade Cecconi (0-1, 5.23)
Quick snapshot (2025):
4.30 ERA / 4.99 xERA / 4.64 FIP
20.0 K% / 5.9 BB% / 4.4% HR
The arsenal (2025)
Pitch 1 = four-seamer (94.3 mph, 44% usage)
Pitch 2 = slider (84.2 mph, 18% usage)
Pitch 3 = curveball (75.5 mph, 16% usage)
Pitch 4 = sinker (93.6 mph, 11% usage)
Pitch 5 = changeup (84.3 mph, 8% usage)
Pitch 6 = cutter (88.8 mph, 3% usage)
What’s different so far this year?
Cecconi has scrapped the slider completely and replaced it with his cutter, which has jumped to 26% usage, and added a sweeper.
How He Attacks Hitters
vs RHH: East-to-West with the sweeper, cutter, and sinker
31% cutter, T-19% four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, 10% curveball
vs LHH: North-and-South with four-seam, cutter, and curveball
46% four-seamer, 32% curveball, 23% cutter
Sequencing (2026):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
It’s an Atlanta lineup that’s mostly unfamiliar with Cecconi - only one player has more than four career ABs against the righthander - so it’s essentially a fresh look at the new version of Cecconi.
Most of catcher Bo Naylor’s ABS challenges - four of the five - have been on the sides of the zone and not the top or bottom. I imagine that with Cecconi running an E-W game against righties, he’ll be looking to steal strikes that clip the edges of the zone.
Atlanta’s best hitters last year against righty cutters: Drake Baldwin (2.627 RV/100) and Michael Harris II (2.333 RV/100).
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
The leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are all available tonight.
Used recently:
Joel Payamps threw seven pitches on Wednesday, but the day off means he’s likely good to go tonight.
Potential limitations:
It’s possible that José Suarez is being saved for true bulk work, but other than that, everyone projects to be available.
Quick takeaway:
Amazing what an easy win on getaway day, combined with an off day, can do for your pen.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Long men Peyton Pallette and old friend Kolby Allard both haven’t pitched since Monday, so they’re likely both on the board at this point.
Used recently:
Neither of the two twenty-plus pitch arms from Wednesday, Connor Brogdon or Matt Festa, should be unavailable tonight thanks to the off day and that being their fist action since last Sunday.
Potential limitations:
If it were me, I’d try to avoid using Eric Sabrowski for the third time in four days and the fourth time in six days.
Quick takeaway:
Steven Vogt shouldn’t be limited on his bullpen options heading into the start of the series.
What to Watch Today
Can Cleveland elevate enough sinkers from Bryce Elder to score runs tonight? Four runs seems to be their sweet spot - they’re 7-0 when scoring four runs and only 1-5 when held to less.
How do the Braves handle a new look Cecconi? The cutter will do yeoman’s work as a bridge pitch in both his vertical and horizontal attacks.
Final Thought
Neither team has lost a series this season; they’re the only two teams remaining in MLB that can say that. Barring a rainout, that changes this weekend. I’ve got the Braves taking two out of three, partially thanks to the new City Connects.