The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mariners, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 60° and partly sunny, wind SSW at 9 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Michael Harris II
CF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
This marks the MLB debut of prospect Jim Jarvis, a favorite of Braves Today. Here’s something on him from last month:
Seattle Mariners Lineup
SS JP Crawford
DH Cal Raleigh
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Josh Naylor
LF Randy Arozarena
2B Cole Young
RF Connor Joe
C Jhonny Pereda
3B Leo Rivas
Quick thoughts:
Connor Joe gets his first start of the series, as does third catcher Jhonny Pereda.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (2-1, 2.22 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.22 ERA / 4.47 xERA / 4.45 FIP
17.0% K / 8.9% BB / 8.0% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 60% sinker, 21% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 34% changeup, 28% cutter, 20% sinker, 11% curveball, 7% four-seamer
What to watch:
There is no history of domination against Pérez on Seattle’s roster, but notables include one homer by Randy Arozarena (.235 avg, 17 ABs) and platoon bat Rob Refsnyder being 3-9 with two RBI.
Opposing Starter: RHP Bryan Woo (1-2, 4.61 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.61 ERA / 4.06 xERA / 4.22 FIP
17.5 K% / 3.6 BB% / 13.9% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (49%, 95.7 mph)
Sinker (21%, 95.3 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 83.9 mph)
Slider (10%, 86.1 mph)
Changeup (5%, 89.2 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: FB-dominant attack; sinker use ramps up when behind, sweeper most prominent early and with two strikes
vs RHH: Three-pitch mix that’s sinker-heavy until two strikes, sweeper most prominent early and with two strikes
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Mauricio Dubón is very familiar with Bryan Woo, having been in the same division for multiple years. Dubi is 4-11 in his career off of Woo, including 4-8 with a double over the last two seasons.
Woo’s ground ball rate is down this season, from the low-40s to just 31%. He’s also allowing more contact in the air to the pull side. On a cursory glance, it feels like that’s related to some degradation in his locations - the four-seamer has drifted down closer to the middle of the zone, while the sinker has drifted up in the same manner.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All of the lower-leverage options have had at least one day off, if not two.
Used recently
The top three high-leverage relievers all had pretty manageable pitch counts yesterday. With an off-day on Thursday ahead of heading to Los Angeles, they should be available to come back if needed.
Potential limitations:
There should be no one down for the Braves today.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage pieces needed to cover a close game, and both Didier Fuentes and Reynaldo López are available for multiple innings if it comes to it.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
A lot of middle relievers, as well as long man (and old friend) José Suarez, are available for work today.
Used recently:
Setup man Eduardo Bazardo last pitched on Monday and can come back for today’s finale, if needed.
Potential limitations:
And he’ll definitely need to, as both Andres Muñoz and lefty Jose Ferrer are coming off of back-to-backs and have the highest pitch counts in the entire pen. I’ll be shocked if either one of them pitches today.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves definitely have the bullpen advantage tonight.
What to Watch Today
As I mentioned earlier, Woo has struggled to keep guys out of their pull-side power. Do we see Atlanta get anybody on base so that these aren’t solo shots?
Can Martín Pérez keep his mistakes off the middle of the plate? This Mariners lineup is running the Kevin Seitzer playbook: “A” swings in the heart of the zone.
Final Thought
Seattle’s a favorite on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be another low-scoring game, as this entire series has been. But if they do get to the bullpen with a lead, can they hold baseball’s best late-game offense off the board?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.