The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mariners, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 9:40 PM ET

• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 71° and mostly sunny, wind WSW at 7 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Michael Harris II
CF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Baldwin, as the leadoff hitter, worked so well; why not try it again? Harris also makes his Braves debut in a different position, taking left field. I’m assuming this was an adjustment to allow him to minimize the amount of sprinting he does on the balky left quad.

Seattle Mariners Lineup

SS JP Crawford
DH Cal Raleigh
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Josh Naylor
LF Randy Arozarena
RF Luke Raley
2B Cole Young
C Mitch Garver
3B Leo Rivas

Quick thoughts:

• Today marks the return of slugger Cal Raleigh, who was dealing with soreness in his side that caused him to miss three consecutive games

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.88 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.88 ERA / 2.98 xERA / 3.12 FIP

• 20.9% K / 7.6% BB / 13.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 31% slider, 31% four-seamer, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 8% sinker

• vs RHH: 53% sinker, 34% slider, 8% four-seamer, 5% changeup

What to watch:

• Against righties, it all comes down to sinker locations. He’s predominantly just throwing the sinker and slider, so letting either pitch drift too far up in the strike zone is a problem that he’s mostly avoided so far this season.

• There’s not a ton of experience against Elder on Seattle’s roster, with the most frequent adversary being Josh Naylor…who is 0-5 off of Elder.

Opposing Starter: RHP George Kirby (4-2, 3.00 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.00 ERA / 2.84 xERA / 3.65 FIP

• 19.1 K% / 6.2 BB% / 12.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (34%, 96.6 mph)

• Sinker (19%, 96.7 mph)

• Slider (19%, 86.5 mph)

• Knuckle curve (11%, 83.7 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 88.7 mph)

• Cutter (4%, 92.5 mph)

How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-sequenced with FB/CB early, FB/CH when behind, sweepers almost only in two-strike counts

vs RHH: Simplified three pitch mix with FB-heavy early, 4S/slider late

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves hitter has taken Kirby deep in their careers, but there are a few standout performances like Sean Murphy’s 5-9 with an RBI, Mauricio Dubón’s 3-9 with an RBI, and Mike Yastrzemski’s 2-3.

• Kirby’s slider is called a slider in some places and a sweeper in others, and it has a lot of sweeper-ish tendencies so that’s why he throws it mostly to righties.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias was activated off the injured list today and is available for tonight’s matchup.

Used recently

• Almost everyone left, except for Martín Pérez, has pitched in the last two days.

Potential limitations:

• Both Tyler Kinley and Aaron Bummer, who are coming off of back-to-backs, will likely be joining Pérez on the bench with a jacket on all evening.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the leverage pieces needed to cover a close game, and both Didier Fuentes and Reynaldo López are available for multiple innings if it comes to it.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Yes, that is former Braves lefty José Suarez, who was claimed off waivers by Seattle and is probably dying for a bit of revenge on Atlanta.

Used recently:

• Seattle’s trio of top leverage relievers all pitched on Monday night to secure a win, and I’m sure they’d do it again tonight if it means the first series loss in baseball for the only team without one.

Potential limitations:

• Honestly, not one. I’m sure they’d like to avoid going to the leverage arms of Andres Muñoz or Eduardo Bazardo for the third time in four days if they can help it, but Seattle won’t throw away a win just to rest those guys.

Quick takeaway:

• All hands on deck for Seattle.

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What to Watch Today

• Gilbert has an interesting tendency to elevate his sinker. Just something to keep an eye on.

• Gilbert has no strong propensity for a first strike against lefties, but he has a very strong tendency to throw either a sinker or a slider in the zone to a righty to open the at-bat. Do any of Atlanta’s sluggers take advantage?

Final Thought

Seattle’s a favorite on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be another low-scoring game. Atlanta’s offense was absolutely ripping baseballs off of Logan Gilbert last night, though; can Kirby keep them at bay?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.