The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game 1

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 82° and mostly sunny, wind SSW at 7 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón

Quick thoughts:

• With the return of Harris from the paternity list, Dubón returns to the infield and is batting 9th.

Miami Marlins

CF Jakob Marsee (L)
2B Xavier Edwards (S)
DH Agustín Ramírez (R)
C Liam Hicks (L)
SS Otto Lopez (R)
RF Owen Caissie (L)
1B Connor Norby
LF Heriberto Hernández (R)
3B Graham Pauley (L)

Quick thoughts:

• This roster has combined for exactly three hits off of Grant Holmes - one each by Hicks and Lopez (two ABs each) and one in seven tries by Edwards. Norby and Ramírez are a combined 0-7 off the right-hander.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 2.55 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.55 ERA / 3.20 xERA / 4.39 FIP

• 19.7 K% / 11.3 BB% / 2.8% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 45% slider, 41% four-seamer, 8% sinker, 5% curveball, 1% cutter

  • vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 33% slider, 13% curveball, 8% changeup, 2% cutter, 1% sinker

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Significantly less cutters (-13%), less curveballs (-6%), more 4S (+9%)

What to watch:

• Holmes struggles with walks as a starter, sitting on a career 2.46 SO/W as opposed to a 5.33 SO/W in relief. Can he avoid the free passes to a Miami team with a good running game?

• Atlanta’s defense has 49 double plays in its 16 games. Only one of them was induced by Holmes, partially because he has an 18th percentile groundball rate of 32.7%. Can he get more weak contact on the ground?

Opposing Starter: RHP Eury Pérez (1-1, 5.06)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.06 ERA / 4.98 xERA / 6.21 FIP

• 25.4 K% / 12.7 BB% / 5.6% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Pitch 1 = four-seam fastball (98.3 mph, 48% usage)

• Pitch 2 = slider (87.0 mph, 15% usage)

• Pitch 3 = sweeper (83.9 mph, 15% usage)

• Pitch 4 = changeup (89.2 mph, 11% usage)

• Pitch 5 = curveball (81.5 mph, 7% usage)

• Pitch 6 = cutter (84.9 mph, 3% usage)

vs LHH: the mix early and when ahead, heaters late and when behind

51% four-seamer 13% slider, 13% changeup, 11% sweeper, 10% curveball, 2% cutter

vs RHH: breaking stuff early and when ahead, heaters late and when behind

45% four-seamer, 21% sweeper, 19% slider, 7% changeup, 5% cutter, 3% curveball

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Don’t relax because of the ERA - the “Baby Goat” has the best stuff in baseball, as measured by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model, with a 118 Stuff+ that tops even Chris Sale’s 115.

  • That said, his 88 Location score is tied for second-worst in the sport, ahead of only (now injured) Joe Boyle of the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s worth pointing out, though, that Boyle’s first start of 2025 was against Atlanta in Tampa, where he allowed no earned runs or hits across five innings while walking two and striking out seven.

• Both Atlanta and Truist Park have been nightmares for Pérez, with the youngster having a 17.47 ERA in Atlanta’s home ballpark across two outings and a 12.19 ERA against the Braves in three career starts. Both marks are the worst for Pérez in his career against any one opponent or in any one venue where he’s made more than one start.

  • Drake Baldwin is 2-4 with two homers and four RBI off of Pérez in their respective careers, while Ronald Acuña Jr. is 2-3 with a homer and Ozzie Albies is 2-5 with a homer.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday, so long that they’ve fallen off of the five-day chart.

Used recently:

• Dylan Dodd covered the final three innings last night and ate an option back to Gwinnett for his trouble, so everyone else got the night off.

Potential limitations:

• Osvaldo Bido, who threw 50 pitches on Saturday, projects to be the only reliever unavailable tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• All the bullpen levers are there for Walt Weiss to pull if needed to secure a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks, who returned from his own paternity leave right before the weekend, hasn’t pitched since returning and has also fallen off the chart, just as Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez did for Atlanta.

Used recently:

• Neither John King or Anthony Bender, who pitched on Saturday, should be unavailable today.

Potential limitations:

• Tyler Phillips, who threw 37 pitches last night, should be down for today.

Quick takeaway:

• There are two lefties (Andrew Nardi and John King) as well as a well-rested closer and all the setup arms for Miami to work with tonight.

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What to Watch Today

• How quickly does Michael Harris II get his dad strength?

• The last high-octane arm the Braves faced, breakout Angels starter José Soriano, tore through Atlanta’s lineup like a tornado through a trailer park. Can they catch up to Eury’s fastball?

  • Speaking of Eury, can he throw enough pitches in the zone to avoid walks and not allow one bad pitch to be launched into the seats for two or three runs?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in this one, and I think that’s the right call. This offense has been too good recently to be kept down against a pitcher they’ve handled well. Can Miami’s offense and running game keep up?