The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game Four
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV (OTA)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Roof: loanDepot Park’s roof will be CLOSED today
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp
Quick thoughts:
Mauricio Dubón ges the finale off, with Ha-Seong Kim checking back in for shortstop. Chadwick Tromp gets his first start behind the plate since being called back up, hitting 9th.
Miami Marlins Lineup
2B Xavier Edwards
DH Liam Hicks
SS Otto Lopez
LF Kyle Stowers
CF Jakob Marsee
1B Christopher Morel
RF Owen Caissie
C Joe Mack
3B Javier Sanoja
Quick thoughts:
Fast swingers Stowers and Morel check back in against the righty Strider, so maybe don’t hang a curveball, yeah?
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.45 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.45 ERA / 2.88 xERA / 3.59 FIP
31.0% K / 17.2% BB / 13.8% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 42% four-seamer, 24% curveball, 23% slider, 2% changeup
vs RHH: 58% four-seamer, 35% slider, 7% curveball, 1% changeup
Who to watch:
There are only twelve at-bats on Miami’s roster off of Spencer Strider, with the only hit being a Xavier Edwards triple on August 25th of last year.
Opposing Starter: RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.53 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.53 ERA / 3.31 xERA / 3.50 FIP
16.9 K% / 7.5 BB% / 9.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Changeup (23%, 90.8 mph)
Sinker (23%, 97.2 mph)
Four-seamer (20%, 97.3 mph)
Slider (19%, 85.6 mph)
Cutter (8%, 89.9 mph)
Sweeper (7%, 84.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A very well-sequenced kitchen sink with no significant tendencies - score another win for calling pitches from the dugout
vs RHH: A very well-sequenced kitchen sink with no significant tendencies other than increased sinker usage when behind (coming at the expense of the changeup) and more changeups with two strikes, at the expense of the cutter
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Two guys that have likely been salivating for this matchup are Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Acuña’s hitting .314 with a homer in 35 ABs, while Ozzie has three homers with 10 RBI and a .333 average across 45 ABs vs Alcantara. Michael Harris has been just as good - one homer, .333 average - although it’s only over 18 ABs.
The flipside of this is slugger Matt Olson, who is 2-25 lifetime off of Sandy (both singles), while Ha-Seong Kim is 1-12 (a double) and Austin Riley is 5-32 (one double).
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Everybody? Even Carlos Carrasco, who was called up this morning to replace last night’s bulk guy in Victor Mederos, was the scheduled starter today in Gwinnett and so he’s fresh as well.
Used recently:
The leverage arms all pitched on Tuesday, but with a day off, it should be all hands on deck for the finale.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes pitched his first back-to-back this week, but got a day of rest after. Is he available, or will they give him a second day just to be safe?
Quick takeaway:
An amazingly helpful bullpen reset means the Braves are ready to crush the last four days of this 13-consecutive-games stretch.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of Miami’s leverage arms haven’t pitched in at least a day, with closer Pete Fairbanks currently sitting on four days of rest.
Used recently
A handful of guys threw 20+ pitches on Tuesday, but it’s likely that most of them can come back today.
Potential limitations
One that probably can’t come back is Calvin Faucher, who threw a back-to-back, totaling an absurd 56 pitches. I hope for his shoulder’s sake that he is down today. Tyler Phillips, who threw 43 last night, should also be down for the day.
Quick takeaway:
Miami has all of their important pieces available if they want to push for a series tie late.
What to Watch Today
The Braves haven’t seen the fully-back-from-TJ version of Sandy Alcantara yet - are they ready for him?
I’m, once again, watching Spencer Strider’s curveball usage so we can figure out if it being more prevalent to lefties than his slider is a lingering side effect of the Colorado start or if that’s a new usage pattern to southpaws.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). Which team gets after the opposing strikeout artist first?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
Programming Note
I’m attending a concert here in town - bluegrass band Steep Canyon Rangers, and I have a front row seat - so no promises that there will be a game recap tonight. If I’m able to watch the condensed game when I get home, then great, but I don’t want to write a game recap solely off of the box score.