The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with the same starting nine as Sunday, but moving Yastrzemski up to sixth. This’ll be the second consecutive game off for Mauricio Dubón, who the team wants to continue giving full-time run but doesn’t have a set position at the moment.

Miami Marlins Lineup

1B Kyle Stowers
DH Griffin Conine
SS Otto Lopez
RF Owen Caissie
LF Heriberto Hernández
CF Jacob Marsee
3B Leo Jiménez
C Joe Mack
2B Javier Sanoja

Quick thoughts:

• Xavier Edwards gets the day off for Miami.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.88 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.88 ERA / 4.80 xERA / 5.10 FIP

• 19.6% K / 10.2% BB / 9.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% slider, 32% four-seamer, 12% cutter, 10% curveball, 8% changeup, 4% sinker

• vs RHH: 41% slider, 29% four-seamer, 21% sinker, 4% cutter, 3% curveball & changeup

What to watch:

• Holmes’s defining pitch: Everything revolves around the slider. It has a 40.1% whiff rate and .293 xwOBA. His curveball has also performed well. The dangerous pitches are the four-seamer, which has allowed a .500 slugging percentage and .383 xwOBA, and the cutter, which has been hit for a .645 slugging percentage and .418 xwOBA. If Holmes is landing the slider, he can miss bats; if he must repeatedly challenge with fastballs, Miami has a path to damage.

• Again, can Holmes turn over the lineup? He has a 2.54 ERA and .207 average against the first nine batters he faces, but a 5.92 ERA, .292 average and 14 home runs against the next nine. His fourth-inning ERA is 6.43 as a result, with opponents producing a 1.064 OPS. Atlanta should have the bullpen moving once the lineup begins turning over, particularly if Holmes has already accumulated traffic.

Who to watch:

• Smaller sample sizes here, but Otto Lopez is 2-4, Jakob Marsee is 1-2, and Griffin Conine is 1-2.

  • Counterpoint here, Kyle Stowers is 0-6 and Xavier Edwards is 1-8

Opposing Starter: RHP Ryan Gusto (0-2, 5.31 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.31 ERA / 4.65 xERA / 3.84 FIP

• 19.4 K% / 7.4 BB% / 12.0% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (27%, 94.1 mph)

• Changeup (17%, 87.2 mph)

• Sinker (14%, 92.9 mph)

• Cutter (14%, 89.1 mph)

• Sweeper (13%, 82.1 mph)

• Slider (10%, 85.4 mph)

• Curveball (6%, 79.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A kitchen-sink mix with some expected tendencies - more cutters and less changeups when behind and more changeups when ahead and with two strikes - but also a pretty static usage outside of those adjustments.

vs RHH: A more variable mix, one that ramps up sweepers

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Not a ton of at-bats off of Gusto on Atlanta’s roster, but Matt Olson (3-5) and Ozzie Albies (2-6) have both homered and Ozzie, somehow, has six RBI off of Gusto already.

  • Two-run single, three-run home run, and an RBI groundout

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/Used recently:

• Everyone in the bullpen got a much-needed day off on Monday. Tyler Kinley is not pictured on the chart because he hasn’t thrown since last Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Mets.

Potential limitations:

• Brent Suter could potentially be down after throwing 41 pitches on Saturday, but part of the reason they got him is that he can throw this quickly after an extended outing. Heck, he probably could have gone yesterday.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s got everything they need to start the series with a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available/Used recently:

• Similar to Atlanta’s bullpen, Miami’s also got a full reset with a Monday off day.

Potential Limitations

• Closer Pete Fairbanks could potentially be down today after 21 pitches on Sunday and working twice in three days, but he’s a closer and they have different rules.

Quick takeaway:

• Miami also has everything they need to start the series with a win.

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What to Watch Today

• Atlanta’s path against Gusto: Stack the lefties, make him work and don’t panic if the first trip through is quiet. Left-handed hitters have a .293 average, 6.14 ERA and 1.73 WHIP against Gusto, compared with .239, 4.24 and 1.06 for righties. The strikeout-to-walk split is especially revealing: 16-to-11 against lefties, 18-to-2 against righties.

• Gusto’s defining split: He has been substantially better the first time through the order. His first nine opposing hitters have produced a .202 average and 2.41 ERA; the second group of nine has hit .375 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.30 WHIP. Some of that is role and sample-size noise, but Atlanta’s objective should be reaching that second look without giving away early at-bats.

• Gusto offers variety rather than a dominant finishing pitch. He uses seven pitches, led by his four-seamer at only 26.5%. The sweeper has been his best pitch by expected results, while the four-seamer has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and the cutter carries a .372 xwOBA. Atlanta should avoid expanding for the sweeper and make him bring a fastball or cutter into the zone.

Final Thought

Braves are an easy favorite on the moneyline (-142 to Miami’s +132), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of nine runs. Atlanta has the more obvious offensive path—lean left-handed, remain patient through the first trip and force Gusto to navigate traffic. Holmes gives Atlanta the starting-pitching advantage on the surface, but it isn’t a mismatch; his fastball contact and second-time-through deterioration provide Miami with a legitimate counterpunch.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.