The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Lane Thomas
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Murphy makes his first start since returning from the injured list, while Thomas gets a start in left field and Dubón is at short.
Miami Marlins Lineup
2B Xavier Edwards
1B Kyle Stowers
SS Otto Lopez
RF Griffin Conine
LF Heriberto Hernández
DH Owen Caissie
CF Jacob Marsee
C Joe Mack
3B Javier Sanoja
Quick thoughts:
Edwards checks back into the lineup, leading off and at second base.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (7-6, 3.84 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.84 ERA / 4.00 xERA / 4.52 FIP
20.0% K / 7.9% BB / 12.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 30% four-seamer, 24% slider, 20% cutter, 14% sinker, 12% changeup
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 27% slider, 10% four-seamer, 6% cutter, 4% changeup
What to watch:
Elder’s been lucky recently: Since the start of July, Elder’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with two quality starts over that span. The problem is, the peripherals are still concerning: a 7.14 FIP, a .208 BABIP, and a whopping seven home runs allowed. Whatever he’s doing to beat the estimators, can he keep doing it or does that magic end tonight?
Is Elder leaning back into the sinker to pitch deeper? Elder’s ramped up the sinker to 38.8%, dropping his slider usage to just 14.6%. He’s still throwing the four-seamer and cutter, so it’s not a complete return to the old sinker/slider profile, but it feels like he’s intentionally trying to diversify his fastballs and leaning on the sinker to generate quicker contact. (Coincidentally, he’s finished six innings in two of the last three starts.)
The ideal version of Elder tonight: Elder uses the sinker for early-count strikes and ground balls, then brings the slider back when he gets ahead. The slider remains his best swing-and-miss offering at a 30.7% whiff rate. If the sinker is generating contact before two strikes, he has a legitimate path to six or perhaps seven innings. If he is falling behind and trying to steer sinkers into the zone, Miami can elevate them and drive up both his run total and pitch count.
Who to watch:
Breakout shortstop Otto Lopez is 4-8 off of Elder, while the only two homers currently on the roster belong to Heriberto Hernández (2-5) and Kyle Stowers (1-7).
Opposing Starter: RHP Eury Pérez (5-8, 3.44 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.44 ERA / 3.82 xERA / 3.95 FIP
26.5 K% / 9.5 BB% / 17.0% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (41%, 98.2 mph)
Slider (15%, 88.2 mph)
Sinker (15%, 97.2 mph)
Sweeper (14%, 83.6 mph)
Changeup (9%, 90.0 mph)
Curveball (6%, 80.9 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A fastball-based mix with little variation - More four-seamers when behind than early or when ahead, and more changeups when ahead (and virtually none when behind)
vs RHH: A four-seam sweeper mix, one that (predictably) throws more four-seamers when behind and more sweepers when ahead. Sinker use is minimal with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Pérez: Survive the first trip, then capitalize when the lineup turns over. The first nine hitters against Pérez have managed only a .164 average and a 1.88 ERA. That climbs to .223 and 4.25 against the second nine, while his fourth-inning ERA is 6.63 with opponents batting .303. Atlanta may not get immediate results, but extending early at-bats and making him reveal the full arsenal could create a much better opportunity around the fourth inning.
The counterintuitive matchup point: Pérez has been more vulnerable to right-handed power. Lefties have hit .190 with a 2.74 ERA against him, while righties have hit .215 with a 4.39 ERA. More importantly, righties have homered nine times in 45.1 innings; lefties have only four homers in 59.1 innings. This is more of a power split than a broad platoon weakness, but it means Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Lane Thomas, and Atlanta’s other righties may have a better chance of changing the game with one swing than the traditional righty-righty matchup suggests.
Don’t allow the velocity to push Atlanta into expanding for his secondaries. Pérez averages 98.2 mph on the four-seamer, but his sweeper, slider and changeup all carry whiff rates of at least 35%. The sweeper has been the nastiest pitch overall, with a .225 xwOBA and only a 25.8% hard-hit rate. His four-seamer has allowed a 46.5% hard-hit rate, while the slider’s expected slugging percentage is .459. The best plan is to hunt an in-zone fastball early and refuse to chase the sweeper away; falling behind leaves Atlanta trying to cover three distinct swing-and-miss shapes.
Several Braves have had plenty of success off of Pérez, all tying back to his disastrous first start in Truist Park in 2023: Six runs on seven hits in just one-third of an inning, with two home runs allowed (Acuña and Albies)
In just six career at-bats, Drake Baldwin has two home runs and four RBI off of Pérez as part of his three hits.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
The Braves didn’t need anyone outside of the leverage group last night, although both Tyler Kinley and Victor Mederos were up and tossing at various times of the game.
Potential limitations:
Both Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias broke 20 pitches yesterday and also pitched on Sunday, but it’s unlikely the team has them both down today.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta’s got everything they need to get an early series win.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of Miami’s pen got a second day off, and John King’s 16 pitches likely don’t rule him out from returning today, if needed.
Potential Limitations
New trade acquisition Victor Vodnik’s 26 pitches thrown, however, might get him the day off.
Quick takeaway:
Miami’s well-suited to even up the series if they get a lead late.
Final Thought
Braves are a favorite on the moneyline (-122 to Miami’s +112), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Today’s turning point is likely the fourth inning - Pérez’s performance drops noticeably when the lineup turns over, while that is also where we will learn whether Elder’s sinker-heavy approach is producing efficient ground balls or merely more hittable contact.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.