The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV (OTA)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Roof: loanDepot Park’s roof will be CLOSED today
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
The Braves make some notable changes here, including Ronald being back in the field, Dubón at shortstop in place of Ha-Seong Kim, and Riley being dropped down to the #7 spot in the order.
Miami Marlins Lineup
2B Xavier Edwards
SS Otto Lopez
LF Heriberto Hernández
1B Connor Norby
CF Esteury Ruiz
3B Leo Jiménez
DH Christopher Morel
C Liam hicks
RF Javier Sanoja
Quick thoughts:
A lot of the same names as last night, but in a wildly different order. There’s also a six-hitter righty lane, from #2 through #7, so that’s fun.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (6-3, 1.96 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
1.96 ERA / 3.07 xERA / 3.24 FIP
29.6% K / 6.5% BB / 23.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 41% slider, 31% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup
vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 40% slider, 16% changeup, <1% sinker
Who to watch:
There are a grand total of seven at-bats and one hit off Sale, an RBI single by Christopher Morel on April 13th, 2025.
Opposing Starter: RHP Janson Junk (2-4, 4.14 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.14 ERA / 3.77 xERA / 4.03 FIP
17.7 K% / 6.2 BB% / 11.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (32%, 94.2 mph)
Slider (24%, 86.3 mph)
Changeup (20%, 87.3 mph)
Sweeper (14%, 80.0 mph)
Curveball (8%, 80.7 mph)
Sinker (2%, 93.0 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A very well-sequenced kitchen sink with no significant tendencies other than strike-stealing with curveballs early and when behind in the count and a slight uptick in four-seam fastballs with two strikes.
vs RHH: A very well-sequenced kitchen sink with no significant tendencies other than slightly elevated slider use early in the at-bat and a slight uptick in four-seamers when behind
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
There’s not a ton of experience against Junk on Atlanta’s roster, but some of these limited samples are fun - Ronald Acuña’s 2-3 with two singles, while Matt Olson’s 1-2 with a RBI and Mauricio Dubón is 1-2 with a double.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Dylan Dodd and recently called-up Victor Mederos are both fresh and available. Tyler Kinley pitched a back-to-back, but had last night off and can come in for a lower-leverage spot.
Used recently:
Both Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias pitched in last night’s win, but with their modest pitch counts, should be available in a leverage spot today.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes (!) pitched a back-to-back and is almost certainly down for the day. Dylan Lee is more of a question - he threw 25 pitches last night in his first game action since Friday. Do they ask him to come back and try and get a quick inning out of him, or is he unavailable unless it’s an emergency?
Quick takeaway:
Two leverage arms, a lefty (albeit one with reverse splits in Dodd), some middle relievers, and a long man. Not a bad place to be for the ninth game in nine days.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Ugh, Tyler Phillips has had two days of rest, while lefty John King got Tuesday off after a back-to-back.
Used recently
Everybody else. Andrew Nardi threw 20 pitches yesterday, while Anthony Bender threw 22, so they’re likely both on the docket in this one.
Potential limitations
Miami has two relievers coming off a back-to-back, with Calvin Faucher throwing an absurd 56 pitches in the last two days and Lake Bachar throwing 39. It’d be malpractice to ask either guy to be up today.
Quick takeaway:
Miami has some pieces, including closer Pete Fairbanks, but they’d love some length out of Junk.
What to Watch Today
The Braves have struggled against well-sequenced kitchen sink guys, and nobody in the league is better sequenced than a Miami Marlins starter that’s getting his pitches called from the dugout. How do the Braves handle a wide arsenal with no significant tendencies?
Can the Marlins get any length out of Janson Junk at all, or will this be another brutal day for the Miami bullpen?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7 runs). Can the Braves find a way to break Chris Sale’s two-game losing streak?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.