The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY

• TV: Apple TV (exclusive)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Austin Wynns

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with a pretty standard lineup here, but this specific combination makes for 55 different lineup combos this season. In a sign of how injured the roster’s been, the most common lineup has been used only five times.

New York Mets Lineup

RF Carson Benge
SS Bo Bichette
LF Juan Soto
1B Jacob Young
CF AJ Ewing
2B Marcus Semien
3B Brett Baty
DH MJ Melendez
C Luis Torrens

Quick thoughts:

• Pretty standard lineup for New York, minus newly reinstated catcher Francisco Alvarez’s off day; the Mets are trying to not push the surgically repaired meniscus too hard.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.00 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 4.46 FIP

• 29.1% K / 12.8% BB / 16.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 20% slider, 20% curveball, 17% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 37% slider, 6% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Five different Mets starters have had no success off of Strider across 3-5 at-bats, but there are two interesting names here that have diverged. Juan Soto’s hitting .231 in 13 ABs, with no homers or RBI, while utilityman Brett Baty is 3-8 with three RBI in his career off of Strider.

Opposing Starter: RHP Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.98 ERA / 3.36 xERA / 3.72 FIP

• 27.4 K% / 9.0 BB% / 18.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (35%, 95.0 mph)

• Sweeper (18%, 84.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (17%, 96.2 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 81.5 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 91.6 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 88.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Fastball-oriented six-pitch mix that focuses on sinker/four-seamer early, ramps up sinker & cutter when behind, and curveball/changeup when ahead.

vs RHH: Sinker/sweeper oriented mix that cuts sinkers for curveballs when ahead and with two strikes and cuts back on sweepers for more cutters and sinkers when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• In a sign of how injured the Braves have been and how much they’re relying on depth right now, only three members of the roster faced McLean when he made his second career MLB start against Atlanta last year.

  • Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson were all 0-3 off of McLean, while new addition Rowdy Tellez is 2-3 with a hard-hit line drive single and a strikeout.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Given the surprise Thursday off-day, most of the entire pen should be available for Atlanta.

Used recently/potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd threw 31 pitches on Tuesday, but with two days off, he should be good to go for tonight’s opener.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the Mets throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Huascar Brazoban is fresh, having not pitched since Sunday.

Used recently

• Everyone else. All of the leverage arms got into Thursday’s win against the Cardinals, although several of them (A.J. Minter, Like Weaver, Devin Williams) threw fewer than 20 pitches and likely come back today.

Potential limitations

• David Peterson, as the 5th starter/longman, is down for today after being the bulk pitcher and throwing 63 pitches on Wednesday. Austin Warren, who threw 33 on Wednesday, is a question.

Quick takeaway:

• The Mets can bring back any of their leverage arms tonight, if needed, but they might then be short that guy at least Saturday, if not the rest of the series.

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What to Watch Today

• Can Atlanta find more success off of McLean than the first time they faced him last fall? In his second career start, McLean went seven innings of two-run ball, giving up four hits (including a homer to Ronald Acuña Jr.) in a 12-7 Mets win.

• Spencer Strider’s looking to exorcize some demons in Citi Field tonight. Last August, he had a career-worst start of eight runs allowed on eight hits (including three homers) with two walks and two strikeouts in just four innings.

Final Thought

The Mets are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8 runs). It feels like the first offense that can hang a crooked number on the opposing starter will take this one.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Let’s Talk About It Two: Electric Boogaloo

If you’ve got 20 minutes, I sat down with Apple TV’s Heidi Watney to preview this specific matchup and get some overarching thoughts on the two teams.

Programming Note

I’m attending a wedding out of state this weekend, so there likely won't be a scouting report or game recap on Saturday or Sunday.