The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
The Braves are going with the best defensive configuration of the lineup, featuring Sean Murphy behind the plate and Mauricio Dubón in left field.
New York Mets Lineup
CF AJ Ewing
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Bo Bichette
RF Carson Benge
1B Jared Young
2B Marcus Semien
LF Brett Baty
DH Jorge Polanco
C Francisco Alvarez
Quick thoughts:
The Mets are batting their first baseman/DH in the eighth spot in the order, if you were wondering how things are going for New York this season.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (8-6, 3.69)
Quick snapshot:
3.69 ERA / 3.91 xERA / 4.44 FIP
19.7% K / 7.9% BB / 11.7% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 29% four-seamer, 24% slider, 20% cutter, 14% sinker, 12% changeup
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 26% slider, 10% four-seamer, 7% cutter, 4% changeup
What to watch:
What to watch with Bryce Elder: This is no longer the old sinker-slider-only arsenal. Those two pitches accounted for 77.2% of his offerings last year but only 52.8% this season. He has nearly doubled his four-seam usage to 22.2% and added a cutter that he throws 15.5% of the time. The sinker and changeup have been his two best pitches by run value; the slider has allowed a .460 slugging percentage despite its 30% whiff rate.
Elder’s defining split: Righties, not lefties, have been the problem. Right-handed hitters are batting .280/.327/.441 against him, compared with .198/.272/.352 for lefties. That is a meaningful reverse split and makes the composition of New York’s lineup worth watching.
Don’t completely buy the 1.88 second-half ERA yet. Elder has only 18 strikeouts against 10 walks with four homers allowed in 24 innings since the break. His estimated BABIP during that stretch is approximately .161, which will not continue. He has genuinely stabilized, but the results have improved more dramatically than the underlying strikeout, walk, and homer foundation.
Who to watch:
For the Mets, Francisco Lindor has been Elder’s nemesis, putting up a .462 average with two homers and four RBI in just 13 ABs.
Opposing Starter: RHP Christian Scott (3-3, 3.15 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.15 ERA / 3.78 xERA / 3.37 FIP
28.8 K% / 10.0 BB% / 18.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (49%, 95.5 mph)
Sweeper (23%, 81.5 mph)
Cutter (17%, 89.6 mph)
Curveball (6%, 82.1 mph)
Splitter (4%, 84.7 mph)
Sinker (2%, 92.0 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A fastball-based arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased cutters when behind.
vs RHH: A 4S/sweeper-based arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased sweepers when ahead and with two strikes while cutting back on them for four-seamers and cutters when behind.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Christian Scott: Win the plate appearance before he reaches two strikes. Scott pairs a 95.5 mph four-seamer with a sweeper that has produced a 32% whiff rate and .254 wOBA. His new cutter has been even harder to square up. The vulnerability is a 10% walk rate: Atlanta should make him establish the fastball in the zone without giving away chases against the sweeper.
Scott’s defining statistic: 28.8% strikeouts, but 10% walks. The strikeout ability is real, and his 3.37 FIP supports most of the performance behind his 3.15 ERA. However, his 3.78 xERA suggests he hasn’t been quite as dominant as the surface number. He can overpower hitters, but he doesn’t consistently control the count.
There isn’t a strong reason to stack either handedness. Lefties have a .294 wOBA against Scott and righties are at .309. The interesting difference is how they’ve gotten there: righties have a .350 OBP, aided by 15 walks and five hit batters in only 117 plate appearances. If Atlanta uses additional right-handed bats, their advantage is patience rather than a dramatically better power matchup.
Atlanta has already seen both versions of Scott. On July 3, the Braves drew four walks and hit two homers while scoring three runs in four innings. On July 29, Scott held them to one run and struck out seven over six innings. The first game showed how Atlanta beats him; the second showed what happens when Scott controls the plate.
Both Ozzie Albies (2-7) and Michael Harris (4-8, 3 RBI) have homered off of Scott, while Matt Olson (1-7), Ronald Acuña Jr. (0-6), and Austin Riley (0-5) haven’t yet made their mark off the right-hander.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Dylan Lee’s had two days off since his 30-pitch outing on Friday, and Brent Suter’s well-rested after throwing 36 pitches in his Braves debut. Both Victor Mederos and Danny Young should (theoretically) be available after their heavy workloads on Saturday.
Raisel Iglesias has worked twice in three days, but closers have different rules, and he’s likely getting called on for a save situation if it arises.
Potential limitations:
Usage is stacking up for several members of middle relief - Tyler Kinley’s thrown three out of the last four days, while Dylan Dodd and Didier Fuentes both have three games of work in five days. My guess is one of those three, likely Dodd, is available today if needed.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves sure could use an off-day to reset their bullpen.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Just about everyone in New York’s pen is fresh, owing to a series of roster moves made over the weekend.
Potential Limitations
Jack Weisenburger is ostensibly a starter that’s working as a long-man for the Mets right now, so I’m assuming he’d get today off to rest from yesterday’s outing.
Closer Devin Williams was placed on the injured list shortly before lineups were released, replaced by Jonathan Pintaro.
Quick takeaway:
If I had a nickel for every series a New York team held the bullpen advantage over Atlanta due to rest, I’d have two nickels, which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice in the last week.
Final Thought
Braves are an easy favorite on the moneyline (-140 to New York’s +130), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. This one’s likely decided in the middle innings: Scott has strangely been at his best the second time through the order, holding hitters to a .269 wOBA with a 1.95 ERA. Elder goes in the other direction: his ERA rises from 2.77 the first time through to 4.30 on the second trip, with nine homers allowed in 197 batters faced. Atlanta cannot assume Scott will soften with familiarity, while Elder’s ability to navigate New York’s lineup a second time will likely determine whether he can build on his seven-inning, one-hit performance in Miami.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.