The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Lane Thomas
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
With a lefty on the mound, Lane Thomas and Sean Murphy both check into the lineup.
New York Mets Lineup
LF AJ Ewing
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Bo Bichette
RF Carson Benge
CF Luis Robert Jr.
1B Jared Young
DH Francisco Alvarez
2B Brett Baty
C Luis Torrens
Quick thoughts:
Veteran Marcus Semien gets the finale off.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (3-9, 4.83)
Quick snapshot:
4.83 ERA / 4.02 xERA / 4.17 FIP
23.0% K / 9.1% BB / 13.8% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 33% splitter, 16% cutter, 1% slider, <1% sinker
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 20% cutter, 17% splitter, 16% slider, 2% sinker
What to watch:
What Mahle changed in his Braves debut: Being caught by Sean Murphy, he stripped the repertoire down to three pitches. Of his 92 pitches against New York, 49 were four-seamers (+5% versus this season’s usage), 31 were splitters (+9%) and 12 were cutters (-3%).
Shelving the slider makes statistical sense: It has been Mahle’s worst pitch by a considerable margin, allowing a .472 wOBA, .576 slugging percentage and .420 xwOBA while accumulating minus-six Run Value. His four-seamer, splitter and cutter have xwOBAs of .306, .283 and .316, respectively. Atlanta concentrated almost entirely on his three credible pitches against the Yankees.
Did the Braves do this? It’s worth pointing out that Mahle’s last Giants start, one in which he struck out nine Padres, was also just these three pitches, so Atlanta might just be leaning into an idea Mahle already had.
Mahle since returning from the injured list: In eight starts since coming back from the hamstring strain, he has a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 41 strikeouts against 15 walks across 44 innings. He has allowed only three homers during that period. Before the injury, he had a 6.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with 11 homers allowed in 56⅔ innings. The improvement is real, particularly in limiting hits and home runs, and it indicates why Atlanta acquired him for the discounted cost they did over some of the more expensive veteran starters.
The post-IL improvement has not been because of punchies: Mahle’s strikeout rate is actually slightly lower since returning than it was before the injury - his turnaround has come from avoiding barrels and reducing traffic, not suddenly overpowering everyone. The nine strikeouts against the Yankees were the ceiling of this version, not his normal post-IL performance.
Watch Mahle against New York’s righties: Right-handed hitters have produced a .304/.388/.462 line and .374 wOBA against him, compared with a .291 wOBA by lefties. The splitter gives him an excellent weapon against opposite-handed batters, while his problems with the slider have contributed to the reverse split. If he again shelves the slider, tonight will give us useful evidence as to whether the simplified plan can help close that gap.
Who to watch:
Catcher Francisco Alvarez is 1-2 with a homer off of Mahle, while Marcus Semien is 2-4 with a homer.
Opposing Starter: LHP Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.52 ERA / 4.60 xERA / 3.69 FIP
17.6 K% / 7.8 BB% / 9.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Cutter (29%, 88.5 mph)
Four-seamer (25%, 92.1 mph)
Slider (15%, 84.9 mph)
Sweeper (14%, 79.8 mph)
Sinker (11%, 92.3 mph)
Changeup (4%, 83.9 mph)
Curveball (2%, 75.3 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A multi-fastball/sweeper based mix that ramps up sinker and sweeper use when ahead, cutters use when behind, and heavily focuses on sweepers and cutters with two strikes.
vs RHH: A multi-fastball/sweeper-based arsenal, one without very many changes based on the state of the at-bat.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Thornton: Get the right-handed bats involved, attack strikes early and avoid chasing the sweeper. Righties have produced a .288 wOBA against Thornton, compared with .230 for lefties. More importantly, he throws nearly half his pitches in the zone while generating only a 19.4% whiff rate. This is not a pitcher Atlanta needs to treat like an overpowering strikeout threat.
An obvious regression candidate: Thornton owns a 2.52 ERA, but his xERA is 4.63, and his FIP is 4.60. Opponents have produced only a .268 wOBA against him despite a .330 xwOBA. His strikeout rate is also just 17.6%, leaving him unusually dependent on balls in play becoming outs, and that plan’s eventually going to stop working with this Mets defense behind him. Atlanta should expect something much closer to a league-average starter than his ERA suggests.
The pitch to hunt: Thornton’s sinker has allowed a microscopic .123 wOBA, but its expected wOBA is .398. It has generated only a 16% whiff rate and an expected slugging percentage of .570. The four-seamer also carries a .315 xwOBA and 46.2% hard-hit rate. Atlanta’s best damage opportunities should come against those two fastballs, especially before Thornton can expand with the sweeper.
The pitch to respect: His upper-80s cutter is the pitch he throws most frequently, but the sweeper has been his best bat-missing offering. It owns a 28.6% whiff rate and .265 xwOBA. Righties should be looking for the cutter or fastball over the plate without following the slower sweeper away.
The first inning is Atlanta’s best opportunity: Thornton has a 6.43 first-inning ERA, with opponents hitting .333/.375/.467. His ERA falls to 3.86 in the second and is 0.00 in the third. That is only seven starts, but Atlanta already followed that script on July 27, collecting three first-inning hits and scoring immediately before Thornton settled down.
Atlanta has seen the entire arsenal: Thornton threw all seven of his pitches against the Braves on July 27, allowing six hits and three runs in 6⅓ innings. Ozzie Albies drove in all three runs. Thornton needed only 81 pitches, however, so Atlanta’s previous familiarity matters only if it results in more prolonged at-bats and fewer quick outs.
Braves to watch: Ozzie Albies is 2-3 off Thornton with a homer, while Acuña, Baldwin, and Harris all collected hits off of the lefty.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Dylan Dodd and the middle relief contingent are the freshest here, all with somewhere between one and three days off.
Potential limitations:
The high-leverage trio of Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, and Didier Fuentes all worked yesterday, but with an off day tomorrow, it’s possible that Iglesias and/or Lee get called on to help win the series.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces they need to close out a close one.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
The leverage contingent is entirely fresh, having had Tuesday off.
Potential Limitations
Not many - Chayce McDermott is a starter by trade and so he’s likely down for today, but that’s possibly all the unavailables for New York.
Quick takeaway:
The Mets should be good for just about any scenario today.
Final Thought
Braves are an easy favorite on the moneyline (-172 to New York’s +158), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Thornton’s surface stats are of someone Atlanta should respect, but his contact and strikeout indicators make the 2.52 ERA look a bit fake. Mahle’s ERA conceals the opposite story: a starter who has performed much better since returning from the IL and may have found his cleanest formula by concentrating on the four-seamer, splitter and cutter.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.