The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game Four
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta goes with the same personnel for the finale, but with Michael Harris II and Drake Baldwin switching places in the lineup.
Eli White was placed on the paternity list today, so José Azocar was selected to replace him and will be on the bench tonight.
New York Mets Lineup
CF AJ Ewing
LF Juan Soto
3B Bo Bichette
DH Francisco Lindor
RF Carson Benge
1B Jacob Young
C Francisco Alvarez
2B Brett Baty
SS Ronny Mauricio
Quick thoughts:
Ronny Mauricio checks in at shortstop, batting 9th, to give Francisco Lindor a ‘half-day’ at designated hitter.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-1, 3.31 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.31 ERA / 4.61 xERA / 4.17 FIP
21.0% K / 10.0% BB / 11.0% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 29% slider, 15% curveball, 5% changeup
vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 35% slider, 4% curveball, <1% changeup
What to watch:
In ReyLo’s last start, he did not use his changeup at all, making this profile even more dependent on missing bats with the curveball and slider.
López faced the Mets twice as a starter in the 2024 season, going a combined nine scoreless innings with six hits and four walks opposite eight strikeouts.
Who to watch:
It’s all small sample size galore on New York’s roster off of López, led by both Juan Soto (1-2) and Bo Bichette (2-4).
Opposing Starter: RHP Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.81 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.81 ERA / 3.78 xERA / 4.27 FIP
21.8 K% / 9.0 BB% / 12.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (53%, 94.1 mph)
Changeup (23%, 87.3 mph)
Curveball (14%, 79.1 mph)
Slider (6%, 83.1 mph)
Sweeper (4%, 82.0 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A fairly standard mix, with increased four-seamer usage when behind and a reduction in that fastball to throw more curveballs when ahead and with two strikes.
vs RHH: A fairly standard mix, with increased four-seamer usage early in the count & when behind while reducing the fastball usage when ahead and with two strikes in favor of more curveballs and changeups.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Peralta faced Atlanta at home in June, allowing one run on four hits across five innings, striking out two and walking one. He’s 3-1 with a 4.85 ERA in his last five starts versus Atlanta, though.
Is this the Austin Riley get-right game? He’s hitting .375 with two homers and five RBI off of Peralta in sixteen career ABs.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Didier Fuentes and Raisel Iglesias have both had two days off, while Dylan Lee didn’t pitch last night after three appearances in four days. They’re available if needed tonight, as is newly called-up Owen Murphy.
Used recently:
With Tyler Kinley throwing seven pitches last night, he can likely come back today.
Potential limitations
Danny Young’s worked two of the last three days, while Dylan Dodd’s worked three of the last five. I’m sure the Braves would like to stay away from them.
JR Ritchie, who threw 46 pitches on Saturday night and got his first career save, will likely be unavailable until the Pirates series.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage pieces available to secure a series win, although if they don’t need/use them, it’s going to make last night’s ninth inning even more frustrating for some Braves fans.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Lefties Cionel Perez and A.J. Minter are both available tonight, having not pitched in either four or two days.
Used recently
New York’s leverage trio all got into last night’s game and it’s an open question about which will come back tonight. Luke Weaver, having only thrown 16 pitches, feels like a lot to be available in the finale and Huascar Brazoban and Devin Williams, being in the low 20s, are probably still on the board as well.
Potential limitations
Kodai Senga and Austin Warren, who each have 44-pitch outings in this series, are likely still unavailable tonight.
Quick takeaway:
It feels like New York’s got the pieces it needs to lock down a series split, if it has the opportunity.
What to Watch Today
Peralta has not given New York length or quality recently, putting up a 7.15 ERA in his last seven starts and not getting out of the 5th inning on three of those occasions.
Peralta’s also struggled with the second time through the order this season - not at Grant Holmes levels, with an OPS increase of ‘only’ 160 points, but still something to watch out for.
What type of length can López give Atlanta? They called up prospect Owen Murphy for innings out of the bullpen, but getting a good five or six innings out of López is sorely needed for a bullpen that’s seen their starters not carry equal weight over the last few weeks.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored on the moneyline (-126 on FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.0 runs) game. Which struggling Dominican starter gets right tonight, Peralta or López?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.