The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Jorge Mateo rotates into the lineup instead of Jim Jarvis, playing shortstop and batting 9th. Let’s hope a potential revenge game can get Dominic Smith going - he has a .188 average and .522 OPS since the start of June.
New York Mets Lineup
CF AJ Ewing
LF Juan Soto
3B Bo Bichette
SS Francisco Lindor
RF Carson Benge
1B Jacob Young
DH Francisco Alvarez
2B Brett Baty
C Luis Torrens
Quick thoughts:
With Marcus Semien (hip) out for an extended absence, Brett Baty stops being a utility player and goes back to an everyday starter at second base, batting 8th.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-4, 3.96 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.96 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 5.19 FIP
20.7% K / 11.1% BB / 9.6% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 35% slider, 34% 4S, 11% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup, 3% sinker
vs RHH: 44% slider, 29% 4S, 20% sinker, 3% changeup, 2% curveball and cutter
What to watch:
Holmes has struggled with the second time through the order, allowing the opponent OPS to nearly double, from .583 the first time through to 1.045. A small part of it comes to his sequencing, with Holmes changing things up the second time through even if they hadn’t yet figured him out. Let’s see how they approach the New York offense today once the lineup turns over.
Opposing Starter: RHP Christian Scott (2-0, 3.20 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.20 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 3.93 FIP
27.0 K% / 10.7 BB% / 16.3% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (50%, 95.5 mph)
Sweeper (23%, 81.3 mph)
Cutter (17%, 89.2 mph)
Splitter (4%, 84.2 mph)
Slider (3%, 83.0 mph)
Sinker (3%, 92.0 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A multi-fastball-based six-pitch mix, with increased splitter usage when ahead in the count (at the expense of cutters), with more four-seamers and cutters when behind (at the expense of splitters and sliders), and more sliders with tw strikes (at the expense of cutters)
vs RHH: A four-seamer/sweeper based six-pitch mix, one that is mostly standard: more sweepers when ahead (at the expense of four-seamers) and with two strikes (at the expense of cutters), while dropping sweeper and sinker usage when behind in favor of four-seamers and cutters.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Only six Braves have faced Scott, and none of them have a hit…except for Michael Harris, who is 3-3 with an RBI.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Both Danny Young (threw 24 pitches on Wednesday for Gwinnett) and Anthony Molina (threw 33 pitches on Tuesday) should be good to go for today’s opener.
Young was most recently with the Mets before signing with Atlanta, so there’s revenge game potential here, too.
Used recently:
Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Dodd have both had a day off since their back-to-backs on Tuesday and Wednesday, so they’re free to return to action tonight. Didier Fuentes, who was held out last night so he wouldn’t pitch on back-to-back days, is also presumed to be available out of the pen.
Potential limitations
Dylan Lee, who gave up three runs in the seventh inning last night, has 35 pitches over his back-to-back and is expected to be down today.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the pieces to handle a lead tonight, although they may be forced to both ask some guys to step up into higher roles and ask Danny Young to face some tough Mets lefties.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Mets closer Devin Williams and setup men Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley (lefty), and old friend AJ Minter (lefty) have all not pitched since Tuesday.
Used recently
Lefty Cionel Perez threw 30 pitches on Wednesday and is likely down for today, given that they have two other lefties they can go to in his stead.
Potential limitations
I don’t see, based solely on usage, that the Mets won’t have anyone unavailable for game one.
Quick takeaway:
New York’s bullpen, while much maligned this season, has all the requisite pieces needed to secure a win.
What to Watch Today
Christian Scott is making his second appearance since returning from the IL for a hip impingement. In the first, he went only 4.1 innings with two earned runs, although his 82 pitches indicated he’s likely not on much of a leash tonight.
Atlanta being better against sweepers would help - Drake Baldwin has a +3.2 RV/100, Mike Yastrzemski is at 1.5, and Matt Olson’s at 0.8. Everyone else is roughly average or below at sweepers, led by Austin Riley’s -1.2 RV/100 off of them.
Final Thought
The Braves and Mets have the exact same -108 odds on the moneyline (FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.0 runs) game. Being honest, I don’t love Atlanta’s chances against a guy that can get whiffs and strikeouts in Scott, but stranger things have happened.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.