The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s continuing with Ronald’s load management, putting him at designated hitter for game two.

New York Mets Lineup

LF AJ Ewing
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Bo Bichette
CF Luis Robert Jr.
RF Carson Benge
2B Marcus Semien
C Francisco Alvarez
DH Jorge Polanco
1B Gabriel Arias

Quick thoughts:

• Oh hey, the Mets have Gabriel Arias now.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (7-6, 3.14)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.14 ERA / 4.30 xERA / 4.22 FIP

• 19.2% K / 9.8% BB / 9.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 13% cutter, 6% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% cutter, 26% sinker, 8% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

• What to watch with Pérez: The changeup is the separator. He throws it approximately 30% of the time, and it owns a 32% whiff rate while allowing a .251 wOBA and relatively little hard contact. His sinker and cutter are much more hittable; the cutter in particular has been punished for extra-base damage. If Pérez is getting right-handed Mets to swing over the changeup, he can continue his run. If he is repeatedly forced back to sinker/cutter combinations in the zone, trouble can arrive quickly.

• Pérez’s results deserve some skepticism: His 3.14 ERA is accompanied by a 4.30 xERA, 4.22 FIP, .232 opponent BABIP and 79.7% strand rate. The run prevention has been excellent, but those indicators collectively say he has pitched more like a solid back-end starter than someone with a low-three ERA. His current August line of 10 scoreless innings and one hit allowed is likely not sustainable.

• But this isn’t all smoke: Pérez has a 2.24 ERA and .240 wOBA allowed at home, and he has allowed just three runs in 19 second-half innings. His ability to minimize hard contact with the changeup gives him a legitimate weapon rather than making this entirely BABIP-driven. The reasonable expectation is regression from the microscopic recent numbers, not necessarily a complete collapse.

Who to watch:

• For the Mets, as always, Francisco Lindor is the main one to watch here, holding a .440 average with a homer and four RBI in 25 career ABs off of Pérez. A.J. Ewing (3-5) and Jorge Polanco (.286 avg in 14 ABs) have both taken Pérez deep, as well.

Opposing Starter: RHP Nolan McLean (8-7, 3.51 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.51 ERA / 3.64 xERA / 3.50 FIP

• 28.5 K% / 8.8 BB% / 19.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (32%, 95.1 mph)

• Four-seamer (21%, 96.1 mph)

• Curveball (15%, 81.9 mph)

• Sweeper (14%, 84.9 mph)

• Cutter (10%, 92.0 mph)

• Changeup (6%, 88.1 mph)

• Slider (1%, 86.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A multi-fastball-based kitchen sink arsenal with notable (but pretty standard) tendencies - an increase in fastballs early, more curveballs and changeups when ahead/two strikes, and more sinkers and cutters when behind.

vs RHH: A sinker-based arsenal, one that throws more sinkers early and when behind while throwing more curveballs when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta’s path against McLean: Prioritize left-handed bats, stay off the curveball below the zone and hunt the cutter, sweeper and elevated four-seamer. McLean’s curve has produced a .158 wOBA and 41.2% whiff rate, while opponents have battered the cutter for a .577 wOBA and the sweeper for a .479 mark. The sinker is his volume weapon, but it generates very few whiffs.

• McLean’s defining statistic: Lefties have a .319 wOBA against him, compared with .252 for righties. That is a meaningful difference, although it comes with one caveat: his platoon split has almost disappeared on the road, where both sides have produced a wOBA around .250. Lefties still offer Atlanta its best theoretical path, but Truist Park has been where McLean has done his best pitching.

• The Braves have already seen the entire McLean experience: On July 5, Atlanta scored three times in the first inning, but McLean regrouped and retired 16 of the next 19 hitters, finishing six innings with only two earned runs allowed. The lesson isn’t simply “attack early”; it’s that Atlanta cannot allow one adjustment from McLean to end the offense for the rest of his outing.

• Where McLean becomes vulnerable: Hitters have managed only a .265 wOBA the first time through the order and .267 the second time. That jumps to .389 with a 6.15 ERA the third time through. He is not merely declining slightly after 75 pitches—his results have fallen apart. That makes the fifth and sixth innings potential leverage points even if his pitch count remains manageable.

• McLean’s recent warning sign: Cleveland used an entirely left-handed lineup against him Thursday and collected eight hits, five runs and three walks in five innings. It was his worst outing in more than two months, but also ended a run of eight consecutive starts of at least six innings. One start doesn’t establish a trend, though it matches the season-long platoon numbers.

• Ronald Acuña Jr. is 1-3 with a homer, while Ozzie Albies is 2-7.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Atlanta’s leverage arms are mostly fresh after getting Monday off, although a second day for middle reliever Tyler Kinley wouldn’t hurt given his three-games-in-four-days usage over the weekend.

Potential limitations:

• Victor Mederos and Brent Suter are likely down for a bit, given either their Monday workload (48 pitches for Suter) or throwing 83 pitches across the last five days (Mederos).

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the pieces needed to tie the series.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The low-leverage contingent is entirely fresh, having had three days off.

Potential Limitations

• Is new closer Kodai Senga, a longtime starting pitcher, ready to pitch a back-to-back after last night’s 18 pitches (and first career save)?

Quick takeaway:

• The Mets will have some questions in their back end if they have a small lead in the 9th.

Final Thought

Braves are a favorite on the moneyline (-124 to New York’s +114), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. McLean possesses the better strikeout arsenal, but he also has more obvious pitches and situations for Atlanta to attack. Pérez’s margin is narrower: his changeup must miss bats, because his ERA is considerably prettier than the contact and command underneath it.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.