The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 77°, wind SE at 7 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Chadwick Tromp
Quick thoughts:
The Braves reward last night’s hero, Chadwick Tromp, with a start. Ha-Seong Kim starts this one on the bench, with Mauricio Dubón moving down from left field to shortstop.
Washington Nationals Lineup
RF James Wood
1B Luis García Jr.
DH Josè Tena
SS CJ Abrams
CF Dylan Crews
LF Daylen Lile
2B Nasim Nuñez
3B Jorbit Vivas
C Keibert Ruiz
Quick thoughts:
Dylan Crews checks in to the starting lineup after being a pinch-hitter and defensive replacement late last night.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (3-1, 3.80 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.80 ERA / 4.14 xERA / 4.81 FIP
18.9% K / 10.9% BB / 8.0% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 39% four-seamer, 33% slider, 13% curveball, 7% cutter, 6% changeup, 2% sinker
vs RHH: 45% slider, 32% four-seamer, 14% sinker, 5% curveball, 2% changeup & cutter
Who to watch:
James Wood is 1-3 with a homer off of Holmes, but no one on the roster has more than four at-bats or one hit off of the righty.
Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin (1-4, 5.79 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.79 ERA / 5.61 xERA / 4.60 FIP
24.1 K% / 9.9 BB% / 14.2% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (27%, 92.7 mph)
Sinker (25%, 91.9 mph)
Curveball (23%, 77.2 mph)
Cutter (12%, 88.4 mph)
Slider (5%, 81.3 mph)
Changeup (4%, 84.0 mph)
Sweeper (3%, 81.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Kitchen-sink mix with cutters early, sinkers when behind, and four-seam/curveballs with two strikes to put batters away.
vs RHH: Kitchen sink with strong sinker usage early and when behind, increased four-seam usage when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by a 92.7 mph fastball - Irvin gets great extension on the pitch (7.3 feet, a 97th-percentile figure) which makes it play up.
Matt Olson struggles against Irvin overall - only a .222 average in 18 ABs - but when he gets one, he gets all of it. Olson’s taken the righty deep twice, including a two-run shot when these two teams played back in April.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Several of Atlanta’s arms are exceptionally fresh, like ‘haven’t pitched in at least five days’ fresh, specifically long men Reynaldo López and Carlos Carrasco.
Used recently:
And it’s good that those two are fresh, because everyone else has pitched in the last two days. Dylan Dodd, on one day of rest, and both Tyler Kinley and Raisel Iglesias on low Friday pitch counts, can come back today if needed.
Potential limitations:
Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee are both coming off of back-to-backs of roughly 30 total pitches each, while Didier Fuentes threw 27 last night in his single inning of work. I’d imagine all three are down today, if possible.
Quick takeaway:
Having a closer, a few long men (including one with decent velocity and recent leverage experience in López), and a lefty in Dodd (albeit one with reverse splits) should be enough to get through today’s game.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Yikes.
Likely available:
Uh, Brad Lord hasn’t thrown since Tuesday.
Used recently
Lefty Richard Lovelady, yesterday’s opener, middle reliever Paxton Schultz, and closer Gus Varland all had pitch counts under 15 pitches yesterday and should be able to pitch again today if needed.
Potential limitations
Okay, now Clayton Beeter will be down, right? A combined pitch count of 37 pitches and a back-to-back in his first two days back from the injured list should mean he gets the day off. Orlando Ribalta threw a combined 47 pitches in his back-to-back, so I imagine he’s also down for the contest, while lefty Mitchell Parker threw 31 and would normally be down, but since he’s one of the few lefties, either he or Andrew Alvarez (58 on Wednesday) will likely be asked to take the ball today.
Quick takeaway:
Washington would love a long start from Irvin and some non-leverage relief innings, but Atlanta’s offense will be dead set on preventing that from happening.
What to Watch Today
Irvin gave the Nats five innings of four-run ball (three earned) when he faced Atlanta back in April. How does he (and Atlanta’s offense) fare in the rematch?
Which version of Grant Holmes do the Braves get today?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a higher-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can the Braves offense finally figure out a Nationals starter, or is this destined to be another ‘need a late rally’ type of game?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.