The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Hot, with a very low chance of rain

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Mauricio Dubón, who has hit .188 with a .424 OPS over the last two weeks, is out of the initial lineup.

Washington Nationals Lineup

DH James Wood
1B Luis García Jr.
RF Dylan Crews
SS CJ Abrams
C Keibert Ruiz
LF Daylen Lile
2B Nasim Nuñez
3B Jorbit Vivas
CF Jacob Young

Quick thoughts:

• This is a five-lefty and two switch-hitter lineup, which could make things tough on Reynaldo López. More on that in a minute.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-3, 3.64 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.64 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 4.33 FIP

• 21.6% K / 9.5% BB / 12.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 28% slider, 16% curveball, 6% changeup

• vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 36% slider, 3% curveball, <1% changeup

What to watch:

• ReyLo’s unusual trouble comes early, not late. He has a 7.36 first-inning ERA, .380 opponent average and 2.18 WHIP. Batters facing him the first time through have hit .333/.384/.544 with a 5.40 ERA; the second time through, those numbers collapse to .182/.267/.312 with a 2.11 ERA. That strongly suggests an early command/calibration problem rather than deteriorating stuff or stamina.

• López’s defining statistic remains his command against lefties. He has walked 28 of 171 left-handed batters but only one of 135 righties. Lefties are batting just .218 against him, yet their OBP is .347 because of all the free passes. Righties are hitting .273 but have only a .281 OBP. Washington’s lineup construction is primed to take advantage of that.

• What to watch with López: Can he establish the fastball to lefties without giving them first base? He throws the four-seamer 54.8% of the time, but it has only a 15.9% whiff rate and .354 xwOBA. His slider is the legitimate bat-misser at a 34.6% whiff rate, while the curve has produced a .239 xwOBA. Getting ahead allows him to reach those secondaries; falling behind lefties has repeatedly turned into walks.

Who to watch:

• Luis Garcia Jr. is a shocking 5-9 off of Reynaldo López, with a 1.112 OPS.

Opposing Starter: RHP Miles Mikolas (3-7, 5.65 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.65 ERA / 5.19 xERA / 5.66 FIP

• 12.0 K% / 4.8 BB% / 7.1% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (26%, 93.3 mph)

• Sinker (25%, 93.0 mph)

• Slider (23%, 88.0 mph)

• Curveball (14%, 76.8 mph)

• Changeup (7%, 86.0 mph)

• Sweeper (15%, 79.9 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A kitchen-sink mix with some expected tendencies - more sinkers when behind and more changeups when ahead - but also a pretty static usage outside of those adjustments.

vs RHH: A more variable mix, one that ramps up sweepers when ahead and with two strikes and drops ancillary breaking ball use when behind in the count. Interestingly, he reduces use of his slider with two strikes in favor of ramping up the sweeper.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Matt Olson (two homers) and Ozzie Albies (one homer) have batting averages in the low twos, but have had success with both homers and RBI off of Mikolas. Austin Riley’s been a tough matchup for the righty, with a homer and a .350 average off of Mikolas, while Michael Harris II is hitting .385 in 13 ABs.

  • Counterpoint: In 22 ABs, Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting .182.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/Used recently:

• Everyone remaining in the bullpen got the day off on Friday and so it’s hard to see many guys needing today off.

Potential limitations:

• It’s possible that one of the back-to-back guys might get another day off, but it’s hard to see solely based on pitch counts that anyone should be down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Thank you for your service, Elieser Hernandez, because it allowed the pen a total reset.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available/Used recently:

• Similar to Atlanta’s bullpen usage, one Nationals reliever ate the entire rest of the game and allowed the bullpen to have a night off.

Potential Limitations

• Trevor Williams is obviously down for today, and Carson Palmquist may get another day after his extended outing on Thursday.

Quick takeaway:

• Both teams have essentially reset their bullpens ahead of the back half of this four-game series.

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What to Watch Today

• No opener for Mikolas: Mikolas has been dramatically better as the bulk pitcher—but the role hasn’t magically improved his stuff. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 42 innings as a starter, compared with a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 60 innings as a reliever. His opponent OPS drops from .904 to .744.

• Atlanta’s path against Mikolas: Don’t wait around for walks—hunt the fastball family in the strike zone. Mikolas has only a 12% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate, so this is a contact matchup. His four-seamer and sinker account for roughly half his pitches, and hitters have slugged .431 and .500 against them, respectively. His slider has been his best offering, but even that pitch produces only a 19.2% whiff rate. He doesn’t possess a dependable putaway pitch.

• The danger zone is Mikolas’s second trip through the lineup. When starting, he has allowed ten homers in only 15 innings the second time through, producing a 14.40 ERA and .791 slugging percentage. Those numbers are obviously inflated by a ridiculous home-run concentration, but the underlying 11.83 FIP confirms that it hasn’t merely been bad sequencing. Even when working behind an opener, his ERA rises from 2.83 the first time through to 5.01 the second. Atlanta’s best scoring opportunity may arrive around Mikolas’s fourth through sixth innings rather than immediately.

• There’s virtually no traditional platoon advantage against Mikolas. Lefties have a .348 wOBA against him; righties are at .347. His problems are broad - limited swing-and-miss ability and home runs - so Atlanta should prioritize its best overall hitters rather than forcing extra lefties into the lineup.

Final Thought

Braves are an easy favorite on the moneyline (-164 to Washington’s +150), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 9.5 runs. The likely turning point of the game is Washington’s first trip through the order against López, followed by Atlanta’s second trip against Mikolas. If ReyLo avoids early left-handed traffic and the Braves force Mikolas to face the lineup twice, the matchup tilts substantially toward Atlanta.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.