The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Four
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:05 PM ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 77° and partly sunny, wind NW at 10 mph
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s back to a standard lineup, with Dom Smith as the designated hitter. The red-hot Michael Harris keeps his higher position of 6th in the order.
Washington Nationals
RF James Wood (L)
1B Luis García Jr. (L)
DH José Tena (L)
SS CJ Abrams (L)
CF Danny Young (R)
LF Daylen Lile (L)
2B Nasim Nuñez (S)
3B Jorbit Vivas (L)
C Keibert Ruiz (S)
Quick thoughts:
JR Ritchie will face exactly one right-handed hitter in the entire Nationals lineup.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: JR Ritchie (MLB Debut)
Quick snapshot (AAA):
3-1, 0.99 ERA: 5GS, 27.1 IP, 28 Ks/13 BBs
Pitch mix (MLB):
vs LHH: 34.8% four-seam, 27.5% changeup, 19.6% curveball, 17.6% cutter, 0.5% sweeper
vs RHH: 24.7% sinker, 19.9% sweeper, 19.5% four-seam, 17.7% curveball, 16.9% changeup, 1.3% cutter
What to watch:
For Ritchie, it comes down to locations and whiffs. Can he avoid hanging a sinker or a changeup in the zone that can get ripped? Can he find a way to find that swing and miss when he gets someone to two strikes? He had mixed results in that regard during spring training when facing big league lineups.
Opposing Starter: RHP Cade Cavalli (0-1, 4.12)
Quick snapshot:
4.12 ERA / 4.58 xERA / 3.60 FIP
19.4 K% / 12.9 BB% / 6.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (34%, 96.2 mph)
Curveball (22%, 84.3 mph)
Sinker (18%, 95.6 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 84.9 mph)
Changeup (9%, 89.4 mph)
Cutter (1%, 94.7 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Four-seamer, curveball, changeup, sweepers as a putaway pitch
vs RHH: Sinker, four-seamer, sweeper, curveballs as an early strike stealer
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Almost no one on Atlanta’s roster has any exposure to Cade Cavalli. Kyle Farmer is 2-3 with a double, while Mike Yastrzemski is 0-3.
Someone will ambush an early-count curveball today - my money’s on Austin Riley.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Carlos Carrasco was called up today and is available for long relief.
Used recently:
Robert Suarez had a Raisel Iglesias-like eight-pitch 9th inning last night, so he should be available to come back if needed.
Potential limitations:
José Suarez and Martín Pérez both remain out for today’s game, but Joel Payamps should be back from his back-to-back.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage arms available if they need them, as well as a well-rested long reliever in Carlos Carrasco. No real concerns here, thanks to this morning’s roster moves.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
The leverage arms should all be available after a day off on Wednesday.
Used recently:
Long man Mitchell Parker threw 23 pitches last night, but could likely give them another inning today if needed. Julian Fernandez, at just 12 pitches, should be down based on three-day pitch count but would likely take the ball if needed.
Potential limitations:
Brad Lord, who threw 37 pitches on Monday, is maybe back, but we don’t know at this point.
Quick takeaway:
Washington should be able to handle just about any game situation that presents itself today.
What to Watch Today
The Nationals have been very productive in the first innings so far this series. Can Ritchie come firing out of the gate and get through the 1st unscathed?
Atlanta’s unfamiliar with Cavalli, but they’ve been incredibly productive this series, especially with the long ball. Can he keep it in the yard?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be another high-scoring game. How quickly Ritchie can settle into the rhythms of the game will dictate Atlanta’s success today.