The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 78°, wind E at 6 mph - rain is slated for later in the contest, so they might not get this one in. If it were in Washington, they’d have called it an hour ago, even if rain wasn’t actively falling yet.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
Ronald gets a half-day, starting off at designated hitter, while Eli White checks in for Mike Yastrzemski against a lefty on the mound.
Washington Nationals Lineup
LF James Wood
3B Curtis Mead
1B Andres Chaparro
SS CJ Abrams
RF Dylan Crews
DH Daylen Lile
CF Jacob Young
2B Nasim Nuñez
C Keibert Ruiz
Quick thoughts:
Three games, three positions for James Wood.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (2-2, 2.85)
Quick snapshot:
2.85 ERA / 3.78 xERA / 3.92 FIP
23.3% K / 8.0% BB / 15.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 54% sinker, 27% changeup, 11% curveball, 8% cutter, 1% four-seamer
vs RHH: 34% changeup, 27% cutter, 18% sinker, 11% curveball, 10% four-seamer
Who to watch:
CJ Abrams is 2-5 with a solo homer off of Pérez, while James Wood is 1-2 with a homer.
Opposing Starter: LHP Foster Griffin (5-2, 4.02 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.02 ERA / 4.38 xERA / 4.66 FIP
24.1 K% / 9.9 BB% / 14.2% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Cutter (31%, 87.8 mph)
Four-seamer (16%, 91.4 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 79.8 mph)
Sinker (11%, 91.0 mph)
Changeup (11%, 82.6 mph)
Curveball (9%, 78.0 mph)
Splitter (6%, 81.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: FB/sweeper mix with increased cutter usage when behind and prior to two strikes, sweepers and splitters when ahead and with two strikes.
vs RHH: FB/changeup oriented arsenal with increased cutter use when behind and increased splitter usage when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta should be doing everything possible to avoid getting to two strikes. This team has very limited exposure to lefty splitters over the last two-plus seasons and most guys that have seen them haven’t hit them. The only notable performances vs lefty splitters, going back to 2024, are Matt Olson and Michael Harris II both having two hits each (all singles) and a 44.4% whiff rate versus the pitch. Mauricio Dubón is 1-3 with a double and one strikeout.
Ozzie Albies is 1-13 with three strikeouts and a 33% whiff rate, while Ronald Acuña Jr. is 0-10 with four strikeouts and a 52.9% whiff rate.
Griffin pitched six innings of five hits, three-run ball back in April when these two teams faced off in Washington. Drake Baldwin and Eli White both homered off of him, while Austin Riley drew the lone Braves walk off of Griffin.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Both long men, Reynaldo López and Carlos Carrasco, are extremely fresh and likely to get into today’s game, as long as it’s not a one-run contest.
Used recently:
Several of Atlanta’s leverage arms that pitched on Friday should be available for today’s series finale, especially with tomorrow being an off day.
Potential limitations:
Dylan Dodd, who threw 30 pitches yesterday and 43 over the last three days, and Tyler Kinley, who is coming off a back-to-back, should both be down today.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has all the pieces they need to win the series.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Almost all of the leverage arms got yesterday off and should be fresh for today’s finale.
Used recently
Orlando Ribalta is at 47 pitches over the last three days, but got Saturday off after a Thur-Fri back-to-back. He might be able to go today?
Potential limitations
Brad Lord threw 47 yesterday and is very clearly down for today, while lefty Richard Lovelady is coming off a back-to-back and should be down as well.
Quick takeaway:
Washington somehow avoided using their leverage arms (outside of Lovelady) yesterday and won a close game, so they’re set up to win the series if it gets to their pen late.
What to Watch Today
How does Atlanta’s offense respond to being one-hit yesterday?
Atlanta got blown out in Griffin’s last start versus the Braves thanks to Reynaldo López’s four runs on five hits and three walks in just over an inning of work. Wouldn’t it be fitting if he pitched the final three innings and got a save for Atlanta?
Final Thought
The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a higher-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Given the way that Atlanta’s bats have failed to perform at times recently, this feels like a bet on the pitching and the homefield advantage. Let’s hope they can prove me wrong.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.