The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Hot, with a very low chance of rain
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Austin Riley returns to the lineup after missing just one game, indicating last night’s absence was more a rest day than any sort of longer-term shift in playing time (unless the new plan is for Riley to be the weak-side of a platoon at 3B).
Hitting consultant Chipper Jones was seen on the field with Riley before the lineup came out, for the record. Let’s hope they made some tweaks today.
Washington Nationals Lineup
DH James Wood
1B Luis García Jr.
RF Dylan Crews
SS CJ Abrams
3B Brady House
LF Daylen Lile
C Harry Ford
2B Jose Tena
CF Jacob Young
Quick thoughts:
This is a five-lefty lineup, which actually plays into Bryce Elder’s strengths. More on that in a minute.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (6-6, 3.96 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.96 ERA / 3.96 xERA / 4.47 FIP
20.5% K / 7.7% BB / 12.7% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 30% four-seamer, 25% slider, 20% cutter, 13% sinker, 12% changeup
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 28% slider, 11% four-seamer, 6% cutter, 4% changeup
What to watch:
Watch Washington’s righties, not its lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .282 wOBA against him this season; righties have a .355 wOBA. At Truist Park, that gap becomes an extraordinary .241 against lefties and .367 against righties. It isn’t entirely new, either: for his career at home, Elder has allowed a .309 wOBA to lefties and .363 to righties. Washington’s left-handed concentration is a better matchup for him than it initially appears.
The changeup is the pitch that makes Elder’s reverse split possible. It has allowed a .215 wOBA and .231 xwOBA with only a 26.5% hard-hit rate. The sinker has also been effective at a .302 xwOBA. If Elder is locating the changeup beneath left-handed barrels and producing grounders with the sinker, he should be able to navigate Washington’s best bats.
The warning sign remains the home run. Elder has allowed 18 this season and at least one in eight consecutive starts. His strikeout rate falls from 24.4% the first time through the order to 20.1% the second and 15.6% the third, while his home-run rate rises from 0.61 per nine to 1.74 and then 2.13. An elevated four-seamer or hanging slider after the lineup turns over is the pitch that can ruin an otherwise solid Elder start.
Also, it’s an extra day of rest for Elder. His 2026 ERA rises from 2.62 on regular rest to 4.30 on five days and 6.58 on six-plus. The five-day issue hasn’t been additional baserunners—his WHIP is virtually unchanged—but a sharp drop in strikeouts and a tripling of his home-run rate.
4 days (regular): 2.62 ERA, 0.62 HR/9
5 days of rest: 4.30 ERA, 1.84 HR/9 ← you are here
6+ days of rest: 6.58 ERA, 2.77 HR/9
Who to watch:
James Wood has only two hits off of Elder in eleven ABs, but one of those is a homer. Daylen Lile is 3-8 with a homer, as well, while CJ Abrams is hitting .316 across 19 ABs but without any homers or RBI.
Opposing Starter: LHP Foster Griffin (12-2, 2.76 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.76 ERA / 3.91 xERA / 3.93 FIP
22.6 K% / 5.6 BB% / 17.0% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Cutter (33%, 88.3 mph)
Four-seamer (16%, 91.4 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 79.9 mph)
Changeup (10%, 82.2 mph)
Curveball (10%, 77.8 mph)
Sinker (10%, 91.3 mph)
Splitter (6%, 81.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A kitchen-sink mix, based on a sweeper-cutter pairing. He dramatically ramps up usage of the sweeper and splitter with two strikes, at the expense of the cutter (which is an early and behind-in-the-count offering). The sinker sees more usage when behind, at the expense of the urvenball, while the four-seamer usage ticks up with two strikes.
vs RHH: A kitchen sink, multi-fastball-based mix, one that ramps up splitters when ahead and with two strikes but almost eliminates them at all other times. Usage of all three fastballs spikes when behind, but none more so than the cutter.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Drake Baldwin (1-3) and Eli White (1-4) have both taken Griffin deep, while Ronald Acuña Jr. (five ABs) and Austin Riley (4 ABs) are hitless off of the lefty.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Yikes.
Likely available:
Elieser Hernandez is the only completely fresh arm in the pen for Atlanta right now.
Used recently:
Tyler Kinley threw 15 pitches on Wednesday and will be needed tonight, while Didier Fuentes had 27 and is hopefully an option tonight.
Potential limitations:
Something’s going to have to give between Dylan Dodd (35 pitches on Wednesday), Dylan Lee (28 pitches on a back-to-back, with 20 of those coming on Thursday), Raisel Iglesias (23 pitches on a back-to-back), and Victor Mederos (29 pitches on a back-to-back). Can’t have them all down today.
Quick takeaway:
My guess is that Iglesias will get a third straight game if the Braves have a one-run game entering the ninth, but Elder going seven innings and then Kinley and Fuentes finishing the game wouldn’t be a bad outcome tonight.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All of the leverage arms got last night off, so it was a backend reset for the Nationals.
Used recently:
Cornelio threw just nine pitches last night and can come back, if needed.
Potential Limitations
Lefty Carson Palmquist’s 30 pitches likely means he’s down for at least today, if not tomorrow as well.
Quick takeaway:
Washington has the leverage arms and the overall better bullpen situation heading into game two.
What to Watch Today
Atlanta’s path against Griffin: Get as many right-handed bats into the lineup as possible and shrink the strike zone. Lefties have hit just .151/.223/.286 with a .230 wOBA against Griffin; righties are at .240/.292/.393 with a .301 wOBA. The strikeout rate also drops from 30.8% against lefties to 19.8% against righties. This might be why Austin Riley’s back, although the coaching staff declined to lean into this by starting either Eli White or Jorge Mateo.
The Braves cannot simply wait for walks. Griffin has walked only 5.6% of hitters, but he also generates a 33.4% chase rate. Atlanta needs selective aggression: refuse to expand for the sweeper, changeup and splitter, but attack something elevated or left over the middle before he gets to two strikes. His sweeper has a 35.5% whiff rate, his changeup 34.8% and his splitter a .220 xwOBA.
If Atlanta is hunting one pitch, the curveball is the most vulnerable. It has been Griffin’s worst pitch by run value and has allowed a .472 slugging percentage. His four-seamer also carries a .344 xwOBA. The goal should be to force him away from his chase pitches and make him land the curveball or fastball in the hitting zone.
Griffin is due for regression, but he isn’t a complete mirage. His 2.76 ERA is accompanied by a 3.91 xERA and 3.93 FIP, with a fortunate .249 BABIP and 82.9% strand rate. That suggests he has pitched more like a high-3.00s ERA starter than an ace. However, the 22.6% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate, 87.7 mph average exit velocity and 36.9% hard-hit rate are all legitimate. The proper takeaway here is “good pitcher whose ERA is too low,” not “fraud.”
Final Thought
Braves are a small favorite on the moneyline (-116 to Washington’s +106) and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of nine runs. Atlanta’s path against Griffin is to load up on righties, refuse to chase his deep collection of secondaries and attack the curveball or fastball when either leaks into the zone. For Elder, Washington’s lefties are not the primary concern; the game will turn on whether he can avoid another middle-inning homer as his strikeout rate declines the second and third times through the order.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
I like excitement as much as they next guy...but if we could avoid getting behind early and having to come from behind to win the game, I wouldn't say no! Go Braves!!