The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: Thunderstorms, wind SSE at 8 mph. 0.15 inches of rain expected and mostly contained to the 7-9 window, so we might get this one in, but a bit late.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
After leaving the finale in Miami with a sore thumb, Ronald Acuña is in the lineup at his customary leadoff spot and in right field.
Washington Nationals Lineup
DH James Wood
1B Luis García Jr.
3B Curtis Mead
SS CJ Abrams
RF Dylan Crews
LF Daylen Lile
CF Jacob Young
C Drew Millas
2B Nasim Nuñez
Quick thoughts:
Talk about some brutal defense - while Jacob Young in centerfield is one of the NL’s premiere centerfield defenders, the entire left side of the infield is below average, as is Drew Millas behind the plate.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (4-2, 2.01 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.01 ERA / 3.02 xERA / 3.20 FIP
22.5% K / 8.0% BB / 14.5% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 32% four-seamer, 29% slider, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 10% sinker
vs RHH: 55% sinker, 30% slider, 8% four-seamer, 6% changeup, 1% cutter
What to watch:
Bryce Elder has finally popped the seal on the cutter to righties, throwing three of them against Boston - once to Ceddanne Rafaela and two to Caleb Durbin. The results weren’t great, though - Durbin took both of his for balls, while Rafaela jumped on a middle-middle cutter for a double in the top of the 7th.
Main Nationals Pitcher: RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 6.91 ERA)
(Washington is using lefty Richard Lovelady as an opener, with Mikolas scheduled to get the bulk work behind him.)
Quick snapshot:
6.91 ERA / 5.34 xERA / 6.20 FIP
15.1 K% / 7.5 BB% / 7.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (26%, 93.0 mph)
Sinker (23%, 92.4 mph)
Slider (20%, 87.2 mph)
Curveball (15%, 76.3 mph)
Changeup (10%, 85.7 mph)
Sweeper (6%, 81.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Fastball-dominant mix, changeup use increases when ahead, sinker ramps up when behind (at the expense of the curveball), with no specific two-strike tendencies
vs RHH: Even more of a fastball-dominant mix that ramps up sweeper use when ahead and with two strikes (at expense of the sinker) and throws more sinkers when behind (at expense of both breaking balls)
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Mikolas has very little success against Atlanta’s roster in his career with one glaring exception - Ronald Acuña Jr. The outfielder’s hitting just .200 with a .400 OPS in 20 career ABs.
The good news is, Ozzie Albies (1HR), Matt Olson (2 HRs, 1.067 OPS), Austin Riley (1 HR, .816 OPS), Michael Harris II (1.000 OPS), and Mike Yastrzemski (2 RBI, .788 OPS) probably all feel like they can pick Ronald up if he struggles tonight.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Several of Atlanta’s arms are exceptionally fresh, like ‘haven’t pitched in five days’ fresh - thinking about long men Reynaldo López and Carlos Carrasco. Didier Fuentes has had two days of rest since his first back-to-back, while closer Raisel Iglesias got the night off after Atlanta scored late and Dylan Dodd was able to take the non-save situation in the 9th.
Used recently:
Both Dodd and the two setup men, lefty Dylan Lee and righty Robert Suarez, didn’t have high pitch counts last night and can come back for the opener, if needed.
Potential limitations:
None
Quick takeaway:
Game ten of thirteen, and the Braves are sitting pretty in the pen. Amazing what a few comfortable wins and being able to option an arm down mid-road trip can do for you.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Leverage arm Gus Varland and lefty Richard Lovelady are both fresh, having not pitched since the beginning of the week. Neither has the second lefty, Mitchell Parker.
Used recently
Middle reliever Orlando Ribalta threw 24 pitches last night, but it’s possible they’re comfortable using him a second straight day.
Potential limitations
I’m guessing Clayton Beeter is down today, given that he threw 20 pitches in his first day back from the injured list and they may not want to push him that hard right away. Lefty longman Andrew Alvarez should be down a second straight day after throwing 56 pitches on Wednesday.
Quick takeaway:
Washington has the pieces needed to push for a win, but I question if they’re good enough to keep this “8th-inning-magic” carrying Braves roster down.
What to Watch Today
Richard Lovelady is opening for Washington - what does that do for them in the late game, knowing that they might only have one lefty available in the pen (and that it’s Mitchell Parker, not a leverage arm)?
Mikolas is top ten in MLB for most homers allowed, with 11. Can the Braves add to that total today?
Atlanta native CJ Abrams has been particularly brutal defensively against the Braves. Does that have a material impact on how far Mikolas is able to go in this game by extending an inning and pushing his pitch count?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a higher-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Does this play out the way it projects to, or will someone surprise us?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.