The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 73° and partly sunny, wind WNW at 8 mph
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Jonah Heim
Quick thoughts:
Jonah Heim gets his first start against a right-handed starter, with Dom Smith being the victim of the ‘half-day’ for Drake Baldwin.
Washington Nationals
RF James Wood (L)
1B Luis García Jr. (L)
3B Brady House (R)
SS CJ Abrams (L)
LF Daylen Lile (L)
CF Danny Young (R)
2B Jorbit Vivas (L)
DH José Tena (L)
C Keibert Ruiz (S)
Quick thoughts:
Keibert Ruiz checks into the lineup for the first time in the series, but other than that, it’s business as usual for Washington.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Didier Fuentes (0-0, 2.25)
Quick snapshot:
MLB: 4IP, 1ER on 2H, 1BB, 4Ks / AAA: 16.2IP, 4ER on 8H (1HR), 6BB, 20Ks
Pitch mix (MLB):
vs LHH: 52% four-seam fastball, 40% splitter, 8% slider
vs RHH: 77% four-seam fastball, 23% slider
What to watch:
For Fuentes, it comes down to locations and his usage of the splitter. Both the fastball and the slider are good enough, on their own, to make any at-bat competitive. But such a limited repertoire can allow opponents to devise a game plan to neutralize one, as the Phillies did to Spencer Strider in the 2023 postseason.
Opposing Starter: RHP Zack Littell (0-2, 7.11 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
7.11 ERA / 7.47 xERA / 7.40 FIP
15.7 K% / 6.7 BB% / 9.0% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Slider (28%, 87.1 mph)
Four-seamer (25%, 91.3 mph)
Splitter (18%, 83.4 mph)
Sinker (17%, 90.7 mph)
Sweeper (12%, 78.9 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Well-sequenced mix, with nearly equal parts slider, four-seamer, and splitter
vs RHH: Well-sequenced mix, with nearly equal parts slider, four-seamer, and sinker
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Virtually every Braves player on the roster except for Drake Baldwin and the outfield platoon of Mike Yastrzemski and Eli White have faced Littell in their careers.
Good: Acuña (2-6, HR, 2 RBI); Riley (3-7, HR, 3 RBI)
Fair: Dubón (2-7); Dom Smith (2-7, RBI)
Poor: Albies (1-5); Farmer (1-9, RBI); Olson (2-10, RBI)
It’s another well-sequenced, kitchen sink, soft-tosser for the Braves to deal with, and inexplicably, that has been their kryptonite this season.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Neither Dylan Lee or Robert Suarez have pitched in a few days and are on deck in this one. Tyler Kinley’s also available, coming off of a day of rest.
Used recently:
Dylan Dodd threw just 17 pitches last night, likely meaning he can come back today if needed.
Potential limitations:
José Suarez is down for three games, based off of his 59 pitches last night. But Joel Payamps, off a back-to-back, and Aaron Bummer, off three straight games, are both likely down as well.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage arms available to seal a win. What they don’t have is someone who can take three or so innings if Fuentes falters…so maybe don’t do that.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Long man Mitchell Parker should be back today, as well as lefty Richard Lovelady.
Used recently:
The leverage arms - Co-closers Clayton Beeter and Gus Varland, as well as setup Cionel Pérez, all pitched last night. Perez is the only one who’s questionable about returning today, but Washington likely won’t jeopardize a win just because his pitch count hit the 20s last night.
Potential limitations:
Brad Lord, who threw 37 pitches on Monday, is likely still unavailable for one more day.
Quick takeaway:
Washington can get it done if needed, but a blowout either way would probably their best-case scenario so that they don’t burn out the leverage arms before the finale.
What to Watch Today
Can Washington get to the youngster Fuentes early? If they knock him out of the game early, it could pay dividends for both tonight and tomorrow’s finale.
Atlanta needs to figure out a soft-tossing kitchen sink guy already. Littell’s a good candidate to get beat; his only other career start against Atlanta came in 2024, and he allowed seven runs (six earned) on eight hits in just two innings, being taken deep by both Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
Final Thought
Even with the change from Martín Pérez to Didier Fuentes, Atlanta’s still favored by a run and a half (FanDuel). Feels like they’ll need the offense to convert the quality contact into extra base hits and runs, which they weren’t exactly able to do last night.