The Scouting Report: Braves vs Orioles, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Camden Yards, Baltimore
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Jarvis is back in the starting lineup, while Brewer Hicklen’s run appears to be over, as he’s back on the bench against a righty in favor of Mike Yastrzemski in right and Dom Smith at DH.
Baltimore Orioles Lineup
RF Dylan Beavers
1B Pete Alonso
SS Gunnar Henderson
LF Taylor Ward
3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand
CF Leody Taveras
DH Tyler O’Neil
2B Jackson Holliday
C Chadwick Tromp
Quick thoughts:
Colton Cowser gives way in center to Taveras, which allows Dylan Beavers to kick over to right and Taylor Ward to leave the DH spot for left field.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (6-6, 4.06 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.06 ERA / 3.86 xERA / 4.45 FIP
19.7% K / 7.2% BB / 12.5% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 30% four-seamer, 26% slider, 20% cutter, 13% sinker, 11% changeup
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 28% slider, 10% four-seamer, 5% cutter, 4% changeup
Who to watch:
Pete Alonso, the former divisional opponent in New York, is hitting .286 with one especially noteworthy homer (the “throw it again” home run) and five RBI in 14 ABs off of Elder. Outside of that, Gunnar Henderson is 0-3, catcher Sam Huff is 1-2 with an RBI, and Taylor Ward is 0-2.
Opposing Starter: RHP Brandon Young (8-2, 3.25 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.25 ERA / 4.21 xERA / 3.85 FIP
19.0 K% / 8.2 BB% / 10.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (41%, 94.3 mph)
Splitter (20%, 84.7 mph)
Slider (15%, 83.8 mph)
Sinker (14%, 93.6 mph)
Curveball (6%, 81.3 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam dominant mix that ramps up splitter and slider usage when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of the curveball), as well as throws more sinkers when ahead and with two strikes.
vs RHH: A more well-rounded arsenal, one that prioritizes sinkers early and before getting to two strikes, throws more four-seamers when behind, and cuts sinker use for sliders and splitters when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
The only Braves hitter to face Brandon Young in the majors is Mauricio Dubón, who is 0-5 off of him.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Elieser Hernández was DFA’d this morning after covering three innings last night with Connor Thomas called up for length for today’s game.
Used recently:
Dylan Dodd should be good to go after a day off, as should Raisel Iglesias.
Potential limitations:
Danny Young’s officially thrown a back-to-back and is likely down today, as is Tyler Kinley (despite last night being only four pitches for one out).
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage arms and length available for most anything except the worst-case scenario today.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Despite going to extras, Baltimore’s bullpen is pretty decently rested. Expect Yennier Cano to be one of the go-to leverage arms for Baltimore today, as he’s been off since Wednesday.
Used recently:
The problem is that, since it was a close game, the guys that threw were all leverage arms. Rico Garcia took the loss last night so they might not want to go to him tonight, but they can based on only throwing 18 pitches.
Potential Limitations
Co-closers Andrew Kittredge and Tyler Wells have both thrown in two of the last three games, meaning that Baltimore might try and stay away from them if possible.
Quick takeaway:
Baltimore has plenty of bullpen arms, but they’ll be in a precarious position on Sunday if they need to use the leverage contingent again tonight.
What to Watch Today
Young’s 3.25 ERA conceals a sizable platoon weakness. Left-handed hitters have struck out less, walked more, and hit seven of the nine home runs he has allowed, producing a 4.78 FIP and 5.28 xFIP against him. Young has also been less effective during the first two innings and the second trip through the order, making Atlanta’s four consecutive left-handed hitters atop the lineup an unusually favorable matchup.
Atlanta doesn’t need to be ambushing first pitches, however - force Young to establish command early and capitalize on it if he doesn’t in the first two innings by looking for sinkers and splitters in hittable locations.
Final Thought
Braves are a slight road underdog at -102 on the moneyline and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of nine runs. Can Atlanta’s offense get to the impressive but overperforming Brandon Young in this one?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.