The Scouting Report: Braves vs Orioles, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Camden Yards, Baltimore

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with the exact same lineup as yesterday, hoping for more defensive success than Saturday’s sloppy loss.

Baltimore Orioles Lineup

LF Dylan Beavers
1B Pete Alonso
SS Gunnar Henderson
DH Taylor Ward
3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand
CF Colton Cowser
RF Leody Taveras
2B Jackson Holliday
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• Baltimore’s swapping back to the game one outfield, with Cowser back in centerfield and everyone else bumping down a spot on the defensive spectrum.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-3, 3.95 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.95 ERA / 4.87 xERA / 4.58 FIP

• 21.2% K / 9.9% BB / 11.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 28% slider, 16% curveball, 5% changeup

• vs RHH: 60% four-seamer, 36% slider, 3% curveball, <1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Nobody on Baltimore’s roster has taken López deep (knock on wood), but Pete Alonso is 3-6, Gunnar Henderson is 1-1, and Taylor Ward is 1-3 with two RBI.

Opposing Starter: RHP Shane Baz (4-9, 4.05 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.05 ERA / 4.23 xERA / 3.46 FIP

• 20.7 K% / 8.3 BB% / 12.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (34%, 96.1 mph)

• Curveball (33%, 85.3 mph)

• Cutter (17%, 89.6 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 88.1 mph)

• Sinker (14%, 93.6 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A two-pitch focused mix, with more four-seamers early and when behind and more knuckle curves when ahead and with two strikes. Sinkers mostly only get sprinkled in early and on hitter’s counts.

vs RHH: A more well-rounded arsenal, one that ramps up sinkers early and before getting to two strikes, throws more cutters when behind, and cuts sinker and cutter use for knuckle curves when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Only three Braves hitters have ever faced Baz, and they’re all new additions to the team for this season - Mauricio Dubón is 1-7, while Joey Bart is 1-5 and Jorge Mateo is 0-2.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Dodd have had two days off since their back-to-back, so they should be good to go today.

Used recently:

• Dylan Lee threw 20 pitches on Friday but with a day of rest, should be up for the finale.

Potential limitations:

• Victor Mederos and Didier Fuentes, who each covered two innings last night, are likely down for at least today (and maybe Monday, as well).

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has both the leverage arms and length available.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Baltimore’s bullpen has shuffled the leverage arms this series, so they have rested co-closers Andrew Kittredge and Tyler Wells available for the finale.

Used recently:

• Yennier Cano threw only nine pitches last night and can come back for the finale, as well.

Potential Limitations

• Rico Garcia’s blown a save in two straight games, throwing 18 pitches each time. As much as Atlanta’d love to have him pitch the 8th today, as well, he’s likely down for the finale. Grant Wolfram has logged a back-to-back but with just 18 total pitches, so he might very well be a possibility today.

Quick takeaway:

• Baltimore has the leverage arms they need to try and win the series.

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What to Watch Today

• Atlanta’s path against Baz: Load up on lefties, refuse to chase the curve below the zone and hunt his fastball/changeup. He is much more hittable than the prospect reputation suggests.

  • The curveball has a 29.1% whiff rate and .276 xwOBA, by far the best marks out of Baz’s arsenal, but he normally throws it for chase with two strikes. Either keeping him out of two-strike counts where he can unleash it or not chasing it to force him to a four-seamer (17.3% whiff rate) or a changeup (.404 xwOBA, .622 xSLG) in the zone is the best course of action to beat Baz.

• López’s defining statistic: Watch his walks to Baltimore’s lefties. Two early walks would matter more to me than whether he records three or four early strikeouts.

  • ReyLo has walked less than 1% of the righties he’s faced (1 in 124 BF) but 17% of the lefties (27 in 159 BF).

• The likely hinge point: The first inning. Baz has a 5.40 first-inning ERA; López is at 8.10. I would have a difficult time taking a no-run first inning (NRFI) bet with these two profiles.

Final Thought

Braves and Orioles have the exact same -108 odds on the moneyline, and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Which starting pitcher can miss more bats likely comes out of the start with his team poised to get a win.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.